From: "Alex" Subject: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index Date: 01 Sep 1998 12:35:51 +0200 Hi, are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index like Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other indexes on NYSE??? thank you, Alexander Herrmann eMail: alex@who.net -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it comes you'll know you're dead. - Tennessee Williams - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recession, "M" Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:09:46 +0200 >CSCO and DELL are stoppable: down >12-13/16 and 18-3/4 respectively. From a short term perspective: Yes. But if you bought DELL in Jan 98 in the low 40s, you are still showing a very respectable profit! Same goes for CSCO, although somewhat less spectacular. :). The fact that you would still be showing a profit is the really important part IMHO. Don't know about others, but I'm learning something from these facts. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:24:59 +0200 >Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma? > >Mike I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere. It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W *now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance. :-) I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this magnitude? -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article Date: 01 Sep 1998 06:36:52 -0700 I went through '87 and '90. Had only one position in '87, too stupid to let it go. Didn't know anything. It worked out in the end, though. '90 was a grinding thing as the Dow fell from 3300 to 2300 while we waited for the war to begin. Of course, like now, many individual stocks were down far more than that. It didn't resolve itself until we invaded and the outcome became clear. Our financials in '90 reminded me a lot of Japan's now. There was a bear raid on a bank every day for probably 6 or 7 months. Citibank was daily rumored to be on the verge of declaring bankruptcy. They were pariahs, like the oils or golds are treated now. Not long after, I think late 1991 or early 1992 CCI traded at $9 a share. It would've been an ideal time to buy the financials. The fundamentals were far scarier than now. Books abounded on how to pick the most financially secure banks for your savings. In 1990, the markets only resolved themselves after the world straightened itself out. Now, there's much more to resolve: Japan, Latin America, Clinton, Russia, Canada, the Pacific Rim, commodity prices, and so on. This is why I'm not sanguine about a quick recovery. > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven [SMTP:Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be] > Sent: Tuesday, September 01, 1998 5:25 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article > > >Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma? > > > >Mike > > I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere. > > It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA > was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle > leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W > *now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance. > :-) > > I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most > interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this > magnitude? > > > > > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index Date: 01 Sep 1998 15:01:44 GMT On Tue, 1 Sep 1998 12:35:51 +0200, you wrote: :Hi, : :are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index = like :Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other = indexes :on NYSE??? : :thank you, :Alexander Herrmann eMail: alex@who.net :-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D= -=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D- :Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it comes :you'll know you're dead. : : - Tennessee Williams : Dunno, but... "Man was made for joy and woe, and when we this rightly know, safely through the world we go." -- William Blake -Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:26:38 -0400 At 11:24 AM 9/1/98 +0200, you wrote: >>Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma? >> >>Mike > >I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere. > >It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA >was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle >leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W >*now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance. :-) > >I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most >interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this >magnitude? > >-- Johan Van Houtven I survived the crash of Oct 87, -22% in one day. However relevant it may be is questionable. This is different. We've never been here before. This time, this day, this trade has never before been considered with the current events surrounding the decision. However, human emotions are pretty reliable in their extremes. I've been giving the technical formations some thought considering the emotion that now has been generated. I want to give WON credit for describing the emotion involved with 'V' .vs. 'W' formations, but can't quote Chapter, Verse at this time. I will look it up later, however, as emotion is heightened, so is the likelihood of a 'V' shaped bottom. They are also more indicative of a selling climax associated with severe corrections or outright crashes. The 'W' bottom I believe is more often associated with relatively minor corrections. Where there is less certainty from either side. Kind of like a tug-o-war. The current damage created will take time to filter through and find reasonable base structures to mount more than a technical bounce to a nearby technical support line or moving average. Meanwhile the risk is very great. The markets tendencies have been exposed. Volatility rules! Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index Date: 01 Sep 1998 12:20:30 -0400 I believe that options are written on all of the major indexes in which case you could buy a put option on the Nasdaq. Very risky, and not neccessarily high payoff, FWIR (Is that a real email acronym, From What I Read :) ). Scott Alex wrote: > Hi, > > are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index > like > Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other > indexes > on NYSE??? > > thank you, > Alexander Herrmann eMail: alex@who.net > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= > =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- > Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it > comes > you'll know you're dead. > > - Tennessee Williams > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jack Lykins Subject: [CANSLIM] Free Chart/Graphs Site Date: 31 Aug 1998 21:14:52 -0400 To All Canslimers: Now introducing free, Java-based stock and fund charts - the most powerful charts on the web. For the first time ever, draw trendlines, plot multiple indicators, compare stocks......all for free. All you need is a recent browser (such as version 4 of Netscape or Internet Explorer), and go to: http://www.ProphetCharts.com I also us this company to obtain end-of-day data for SuperCharts. Prices are al little low than Dail Data but cover is also a little less. Jack Lykins - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Price/Sales & IBD article Date: 01 Sep 1998 16:59:01 -0700 (PDT) <> Here you go, Jans: http://www.dailystocks.net/dsscreen.html --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: [CANSLIM] woodard's page Date: 01 Sep 1998 20:14:13 -0500 will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is his email add address. John Adair - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:55:12 -0400 Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000. My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more likely, an approximation of CASLI? Thanks, Scott - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] woodard's page Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:56:19 -0400 Don't have his email address, but his web page is: http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm At 08:14 PM 9/1/98 -0500, you wrote: >will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is >his email add >address. >John Adair > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400 What a beautiful reversal day. Not a gap down open flushing, but a solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow through. New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close. Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in my book. WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation signals. The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon a reversal low of these proportions. Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn. Water cooler, radio, newspaper, this group, etc. Pleasant Noises. Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] woodard's page Date: 01 Sep 1998 19:19:11 -0700 (PDT) <> In addition to the above, the HGS forum address is http://www.wallstreetcity.com/talk/roundtables.htm His e-mail address is ianforum@aol.com (incidentally, it's Woodward). Those of you who don't ordinarily follow the HGS forum may want to read the postings made since last Thursday. You may find them enlightening. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Farmer Date: 01 Sep 1998 22:23:48 -0400 Gonna paper trade the Farmer system on the mini-value line futures contract with this big reversal today. Couldn't get my account funded in time. Open a 1 lot MV8U at 766 after the cash closed, initial stop loss at 713 (may correct that with some updated guidance from the Farmer). Will pyramid the position on 1% on volume days in the Nas within 3-10 days of today's low. Stops pulled up under the low of a distribution day (say half the day's range below the low). Want to follow along? It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Is everyone affected by the East? Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:39:48 -0500 I have to laugh at the crowd mentality these days. I'm still partly invested, and it is all in small caps. In fact, it is all in small caps with either no or very little presence outside of the U.S. For instance, the local restaurant down the street is public (its a chain). They've dove even farther than the general indices. I'd venture to say that the situation with Russia doesn't affect their sales in the slightest (unless my next door neighbor gives up going there to send money to his relatives in Japan...). Yet, the stock is down almost 50% in the last month. Where am I going with this? Welll... I tend to be looking at stocks that have a U.S. presence, are relatively small, have a high EPS rank, and very little international presence. In addition, these stocks have virtually no debt - given the uncertainty of the economic situation. If the Eastern part of the world continues to be mired in a mess, these would seem to be the companies to own. I could be wrong - Coca-Cola may continue to sail along - I've shunned big caps all year and look where its got me - ready for a loss carryover...but the above paragraph, well, that's my current approach. The kicker: Its not really CANSLIM - these stocks may have been CANSLIM in April - but the RS has tanked since then. Later, Dave Cameron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Asian markets Date: 02 Sep 1998 01:05:39 -0400 Pretty much all the Asian mkts are responding to the bounce in the US mkts today, and the strong showing in Japan last night and again currently. Sets the stage for a strong rally in Europe starting in a few hours, followed by the US and LATAM mkts (which were mixed today). The plunge in the dollar against virtually every major currency appears to mirror the vulnerability of the US mkts, economy, and the "safe haven" environment it professed. which was revealed over the past few days in particular. VIX, after slowing to about 30, shot up to over 48 just a day ago, then retreated to 39 today. Highly volatile, these mks, a fertile hunting ground for day traders or Kmart style "value shoppers", but treacherous territory for CANSLIMers. Internet stocks have clearly shown the volatility that accompanies stocks lacking solid fundamentals, even when mostly in favor. Volume, and point moves, are indeed impressive. NYSE hit a record vol of 1.2 billion shares today, a new record, on its rebound. In the past two trading days, we saw NYSE and Nasdaq show their 2nd largest (or record) point moves in history, in both directions!! Cash is making a fast exit from money mkt and bond funds back into equities. The question is whether this is going to be a one or two day surge, or a new trend developing. In the past two trading days I have seen a sig amount of mutual fund selling, mostly in the more aggressive funds. I have also seen a limited amount of buying, mostly in the big cap funds. I expect any further rally to be shown once again in the most liquid of stocks, not optimistic about small caps despite their far superior earnings growth rate, better valuations in terms of PE, and higher valuations measured in sales and earnings growth rates. Liquidity will still be valued more heavily than fundamentals at least till the volatility settles down, IMHO. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer Date: 02 Sep 1998 02:33:58 -0700 (PDT) "Want to follow along?" If I'd like to color the NAZ bars on my IBD page, would the 27th, 28th and 31 be blue and the 1st purple? TM ---Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> wrote: > > Gonna paper trade the Farmer system on the mini-value line futures > contract with this big reversal today. Couldn't get my account funded > in time. > > Open a 1 lot MV8U at 766 after the cash closed, initial stop loss at 713 > (may correct that with some updated guidance from the Farmer). Will > pyramid the position on 1% on volume days in the Nas within 3-10 days of > today's low. Stops pulled up under the low of a distribution day (say > half the day's range below the low). > > Want to follow along? It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude. > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Asian markets Date: 02 Sep 1998 07:25:23 -0400 At 01:05 9/2/98 -0400, you wrote: > >Cash is making a fast exit from money mkt and bond funds back into >equities. The question is whether this is going to be a one or two day >surge, or a new trend developing. > >In the past two trading days I have seen a sig amount of mutual fund >selling, mostly in the more aggressive funds. I have also seen a >limited amount of buying, mostly in the big cap funds. I expect any >further rally to be shown once again in the most liquid of stocks, not >optimistic about small caps despite their far superior earnings growth >rate, better valuations in terms of PE, and higher valuations measured >in sales and earnings growth rates. > >Liquidity will still be valued more heavily than fundamentals at least >till the volatility settles down, IMHO. > >Tom W > Someone on another forum I frequent stated their Waterhouse Broker told him they had tons of Margin Calls to execute on Tuesday. Swamped. No doubt! In todays IBD Investor's Corner, pg A19, Loren Fleckenstein (who I usually put a wreath of garlic around my neck to read) seems to be following the WON observations in regarding bottoming processes. Speaks of the rally follow through day and watching for quality of leadership in the breakout. There is also a very nice graphic of the % stocks beneath their 200day mov avg. This chart contains data back to 1982, so is complete enough that it should help provide some insight. One thing that stands out to me is the often cited 3 year up cycle of a Bull market. Their is also a table which lists Bear market starts and durations for the past century. Congrads to him/her, Loren Fleckenstein. This article is worth reading! Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TrdStation@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Rut Date: 02 Sep 1998 09:38:03 EDT Since late July, the Russell 2000 has moved by more than 1% on 10 out of 13 trading days, and in the past nine sessions alone, the small-stock index has moved more on a percentage basis than either the DJ or the S&P 500 on seven occasions, the Wall Street Journal will say today. It will also note that "the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks rode up 7.33, or 1.81%, to 411.29, but the barometer remains the only major stock-market index that is in negative territory for the year, down about 6%. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 37.08, or 2.04%, to 1855.12 .... in the past 30 trading days the Russell 2000 has moved, on average, 1.3% per day, up from a 600-day average of 0.61%, according to data compiled by Schroder & Co. That compares with an average daily move of 1.2% in the S&P index of 500 blue-chip stocks, which has a 600-day average of 0.7%." The standard deviation of the Russell 2000 hit a six-year high this past week, on an annualized basis, says ITG Inc., a New York brokerage firm. The Russell's volatility also moved higher than the S&P 500's for the first time since September 1996. Part of it has to do with uncertainty about earnings. According to the WSJ,in the second quarter, the Russell 2000's average earnings surprise was 3% below expectations. whereas First Call reports stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index reported earnings 1.8% above expectations. I was told by a guy who said the Russell leads the Dow and S&P. He said he has been making money with options on stocks for a number of years watching this relationship. He sent the above post where he got it I have no clue but interesting theory. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer Date: 02 Sep 1998 09:47:01 +0200 >Want to follow along? It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude. Keep us posted, Jeffry. A quick review of your thoughts about your position every day would me most interesting. I will not be following along. Even if I wanted I couldn't, as a can't trade futures. But I'd very much like to track your thoughts on your position. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 10:40:36 +0200 >What a beautiful reversal day. Not a gap down open flushing, but a >solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow >through. New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close. > >Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in >my book. WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation >signals. The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon >a reversal low of these proportions. Operative words here *IMHO* "we may get a few false starts". (Opinion) I'd expect a rally to to the 200MA at best. (Opinion) New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities sector. :) Were is the breadth? But that could change of course, since it is only day 1 now. Were are the bases to launch from? I don't see any. Were are the new leading sectors? Still to early of course. Sentiment: Bearish. So that is a definite positive. Just, some extra noises, although maybe a bit less pleasant. :) We have day 1 and we have the bearish sentiment, so I fully understand and admire your determination to start counting and playing 'M'. Hope you don't mind me being a interested 'spectator' with only some extra noises to contribute. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 03 Sep 1998 01:56:39 +1200 I have been investing in the US market for less than 5 years and never experienced a rally in one day of this magnitude. A staggering 1.2 billion shares of volume on the New York Exchange on September 1. Quoting from CNN source VINCE FARRELL, SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL: "Thirty-eight percent of stocks on the New York Exchange are (still) down 40-percent decline, and on the NASDAQ, half the stocks are down 50 percent. " It has already been noted by CANSLIMERs that only the big caps have been performing lately. I was looking for parallels in history and noticed some some remarkable similarities with the bull market of the late 1920's. Here is some food for thought. This excerpt below is from the book "Once in Golconda" The 1929 boom was, in fact, quite a narrow and selective one. It was a boom of the handful of stocks that figured in the daily calculation of the Dow-Jones and the New York Times indexes, and that was why thoses well-publicized indexes were at record highs. It was also a boom of the most actively traded stocks bearing the names of the most celebrated companies. But it was empahatically not a boom of dozens of secondary stocks in which many perhaps as many investors were interested. As a matter of fact, a good part of the stock market had been more or less depressed all through 1929. The soaring of the averages made a rousing spectacle. The persistence of the ideal that all stocks were going through the roof in the autumn of 1929 is a monument to the power of a popular myth. Tuesday Sepetember 3, 1929 -the day the market averages reached the all time highs that was to endure for a quarter of a century. Wall Street's bull market collapsed (yesterday) with a detonation heard round the world Loses ranged from 23.5 points in active stock exchange issues... It was a day of tumultuous, excited market happenings. The newspaper was the sober New York Times, the date was June 12 1928 (repeat 1928) A year preceding the Wall Street Cash of 1929, a major correction occurred. What happened 1 September 1998 is the start of another bull market run, in my opinion. For how long. is anyones guess. My adivce is to buy the big cap stocks! The other important detail is to watch the American banking sector like a hawk. Already the US banks are declaring huge losses (write offs) with Russia. "Speaking from a perspective of sixty years in banking and business. I have to say that banking is the surest, safest and easiest business I have seen or known... if your're not actually stupid or dishonest it's hard not to make money in banking" -George Moore writing in a Bankers Life of his time with Citibank History repeats itself in the year 1998. The figures I have, is upwards of US$300-$400 billion dollar loans to Russia, world wide are affected. Citibank invested in Russia in 1920's. Citibank faced at that time, a potential loss of 80 percent of its capital. They learned theirt lesson years ago, with the communist revolution. George Moor chairman during the 1930's rescued Citibank from bankruptcy. Moore, tough and talented saleman, always kept his 1930's experiences at the front of his mind. They were reflected in his business decisions, the strategy of the bank that he influenced or led for two decades, and his insistence that senior Citibankers not only knew of the bank's past mistakes, but why the decisons looked right at the time. I have been informed that China is another time bomb waiting to explode. The property bubble in China has collapsed. Hundreds of half completed or empty buildings and 80 percent of the loans have come from European banking! Don't under estimate the signifcance of the banking sector, it is the the "life blood" of capitalism. Without it, everything comes to a halt. You will be aware of this, when you realise that Japan and the whole of Asia are in a mess, with their banks collasping or refusing to declare their losses, hoping to ride it out! You can't lend out money when your technically insolvent. The bsiness cycle contracts. I believe that American regulators assess the health of their charges through a CAMEL rating, in which 1 is the highest and 5 the lowest. CAMEL ratings are never disclosed, for the obvious reason that they wish to prevent a public panic and a run on the banks (publics) money. 3-4 and the board is asked to sign a letter of agreement, which is a memorandum setting out what the regulator's expect of the bank's management. Such a letter is what the Citibank board had to sign in 1992. I happen to be a Citibank customer in New Zealand, so I have a personal interest in these matters. Unles you have been through a crash, the first sign of trouble is the banking sector, which did occurred in New Zealand in 1987. Banks don't go under today, thank goodness, they either consolidate and the government regulates heavily or bales them out as a last resort. A recession usually kicks in or at least slows the economy down as a result. Throughout the 1920's, the failure of several hundred banks each year in the United States was commonplace. When 346 banks failed during the first 6 months of 1929, no one took much notice. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DCSquires@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 10:49:50 EDT In a message dated 9/2/98 9:46:55 AM Eastern Daylight Time, Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be writes: << New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities sector. :) >> I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is different this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows almost always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the new high list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time. Couple this with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at a four year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that WON is sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing follows though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a heathly base. Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy these lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market breadth. If this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap tech. DCsquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated earnings Date: 02 Sep 1998 13:26:32 -0700 (PDT) Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated earnings for the S&P500? I am interested in using the difference between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M). Thanks, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated Date: 02 Sep 1998 16:42:19 -0400 Can't help you directly on the estimated earnings thing, though I am sure it is out there. However ... For someone who uses a similar model to value the market - take a look here ===> http://www.magma.ca/~davef/ (Dave's Investment World). He does a very nice job with historical valuations. As you say, not Canslim directly - but interesting to know and potentially useful for thinking about things. One of my favorite sites. At 01:26 PM 9/2/98 -0700, you wrote: >Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated >earnings for the S&P500? I am interested in using the difference >between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on >Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M). >Thanks, >rolatzi > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 18:11:48 PDT > Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never see= n > it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn. Water cooler, radio, > newspaper, this group, etc. > > Pleasant Noises. > > Jeff Hi Jeff, Have been out of the mkt since July except for one mattress stuffer (WMT)= . Said final mattress stuffer was sold into the strength on Tuesday for a 20% gain since spring. Only other investments are retirement account offshore bonds (up 8% since purchase in late July). Am not saying this to brag (I took my share of lumps last winter). I am just saying that I trust this market less than any other I have seen= . Perhaps it comes from living in the Canadian commodity-related economy where the collapse in the stock market has been much worse. Not to mention the meltdown in the northern peso. On the positive side, not being invested at present, I had the time to go visit the biggest seller of business books in Toronto. = I was looking for " The Great Crash - 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith (a fellow Canadian). Book had been highly recommended to me. Usually many copies on hand. Sold out. Taking back-orders. Looked in other stores. Sold out. I take this as a good (contrary) indicator. Am counting days from Tuesda= y, and will check sentiment numbers in tomorrow's (Thursday) IBD. Till then I am keeping my powder dry. Walter (Ursus Borealis) Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 02 Sep 1998 20:22:43 -0500 Scott I dont know which version you have. If its version 3You can make some custom searches but Unless your are proficient at programing you are not likely to be successful. In version 4( the windows version it is not possible. They do have quite a few perprogramed searches which are good.I think tc2000 is the simplest of all and until you get fairly knowledgable it is the best for the early entry. There are many more sophistocated programs. Stick with tc2000. by the time its safe for you to buy stock you should be up to speed. John Adair Scott Vickery wrote: > Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on > which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30 > day trial of TC2000. > > My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the > direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more > likely, an approximation of CASLI? > > Thanks, > Scott > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - Foreign Mutual Funds List Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:43:00 -0400 Here is a partial list of closed-end foreign (non-US) mutual funds. Of course they are not index funds, so the actual markets may be performing better or worse than the fund. I use them as a substitute to see how a market is doing in general. It looks like the Western European markets are holding up better than most around the world. The US is holding up about as well as Europe. This is most useful if you have a complete database of stocks (like QPv2, TC2000, Dial Data, etc.) because these funds trade like stocks and are listed on the exchanges. None of these charts look remotely like anything that is a technical buy from a Canslim point of view (all downtrends). Best regards, Craig Here is the list FWIW: AF Argentina Fund APF Morgan Stanley Asia-Pacific BZF Brazil Fund cee Central European Equity Fund CH Chile Fund CHN China Fund EF Europe Fund EFL Emerging Mkts Fl Rt Fund ETF Emerging Mkts Telecomms Fund FRF France Growth Fund FRG Emerging Germany Fund GER Germany Fund gf New Germany Fund GRR Asia Tiger Fund gtf Aim Eastern Fund IIF Morgan Stanley India Inv. IF Indonesia Fund IFN India Fund IGF India Growth Fund ISL First Israel Fund ITA Italy Fund IRL Irish Investment Fund JOF Japan OTC Equity Fund jgf Jakarta Growth Fund KIF Korea Investment Fund LDF Latin America Fund MEF Emerging Mexico Fund MF Malaysia Fund MXE Mexico Equity Income Fund MXF Mexico Fund nsa New South Africa Fund OST Austria Fund PGF Portugal Fund SGF Singapore Fund SNF Spain Fund SWZ Swiss Helvetia Fund TEA Templeton Emerging Mkt. Apprec. Fund TKF Turkish Investment Fund TTF Thai Fund TWN Taiwan Fund TYW Taiwan Equity Fund - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:53:07 -0400 I am quite proficient at programming, so that would not have been a problem. However, I have Version 4. It is too bad the windows version doesn't provide that level of screening capability. Thank you for the advice, though. I think that I will probably stick with tc2000, in the short run however. Scott At 08:22 PM 9/2/98 -0500, you wrote: >Scott >I dont know which version you have. If its version 3You can make some custom >searches but Unless your are proficient at programing you are not likely to be >successful. In version 4( the windows version it is not possible. They do have >quite a few perprogramed searches which are good.I think tc2000 is the simplest >of all and until you get fairly knowledgable it is the best for the early >entry. There are many more sophistocated programs. Stick with tc2000. by the >time its safe for you to buy stock you should be up to speed. >John Adair > >Scott Vickery wrote: > >> Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on >> which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30 >> day trial of TC2000. >> >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more >> likely, an approximation of CASLI? >> >> Thanks, >> Scott >> >> - > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:Thanks Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:10:42 -0500 Thanks for your information on woodard. Scott Vickery wrote: > Don't have his email address, but his web page is: > > http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm > > At 08:14 PM 9/1/98 -0500, you wrote: > >will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is > >his email add > >address. > >John Adair > > > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rut Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:04:49 -0400 Don't know nuttin about the theory behind this, but do see one obvious fallacy in the logic when comparing the percentage earnings surprises. The 2000 stocks in the index likely have fewer analysts following them (and many will be repeats) than does the S&P100 in total. Exposure is one of their biggest problems, very few analysts will even investigate them, much less share an opinion. The few that do specialize for the most part in small caps. As to the volatility nrs, I would actually have expected the divergence to be far greater considering the lack of liquidity. Tom W -----Original Message----- > > >Since late July, the Russell 2000 has moved by more than 1% on 10 out >of 13 trading days, and in the past nine sessions alone, the small-stock >index has moved more on a percentage basis than either the DJ or the S&P >500 on >seven occasions, the Wall Street Journal will say today. It will also note >that "the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks rode up 7.33, or >1.81%, to 411.29, but the barometer remains the only major stock-market index >that is in negative territory for the year, down about 6%. The Nasdaq >Composite Index jumped 37.08, or 2.04%, to 1855.12 .... in the past 30 >trading >days the Russell 2000 has moved, on average, 1.3% per day, up from a >600-day average of 0.61%, according to data compiled by Schroder & Co. That >compares with an average daily move of 1.2% in the S&P index of 500 >blue-chip stocks, which has a 600-day average of 0.7%." The standard >deviation of the Russell 2000 hit a six-year high this past week, on >an annualized basis, says ITG Inc., a New York brokerage firm. The >Russell's volatility also moved higher than the S&P 500's for the >first time since September 1996. Part of it has to do with uncertainty >about earnings. According to >the WSJ,in the second quarter, the Russell 2000's average earnings surprise >was 3% below expectations. whereas First Call reports stocks in the Standard >& Poor's 500-stock index reported earnings 1.8% above expectations. > > >I was told by a guy who said the Russell leads the Dow and S&P. He said he >has been making money with options on stocks for a number of years watching >this relationship. He sent the above post where he got it I have no clue >but interesting theory. > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:11:52 -0400 One further comment to add on banks and Russia. Be careful how you treat the losses they are reporting, note whether these are actual realized losses, or simply write offs as at least one bank did which wrote off its Russian exposure at 15 cents on the dollar (most russian bonds are already trading a bit higher than this). What this does is keep the bank in conformity with regulators in terms of showing its "assets" at fair mkt value, gives it some tax sheltering, and could result in substantial future profits if the assets only rebound to 50 cents on the dollar, since the cost basis is now 15 cents. Tom W -----Original Message----- >I have been investing in the US market for less than 5 years and never >experienced a rally in one day of this magnitude. A staggering 1.2 billion >shares of volume on the New York Exchange on September 1. Quoting from CNN >source VINCE FARRELL, SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL: "Thirty-eight >percent of stocks on the New York Exchange are (still) down 40-percent >decline, and on the NASDAQ, half the stocks are down 50 percent. " It has >already been noted by CANSLIMERs that only the big caps have been >performing lately. I was looking for parallels in history and noticed some >some remarkable similarities with the bull market of the late 1920's. >Here is some food for thought. > >This excerpt below is from the book "Once in Golconda" >The 1929 boom was, in fact, quite a narrow and selective one. It was a boom >of the handful of stocks that figured in the daily calculation of the >Dow-Jones and the New York Times indexes, and that was why thoses >well-publicized indexes were at record highs. It was also a boom of the most >actively traded stocks bearing the names of the most celebrated companies. >But it was empahatically not a boom of dozens of secondary stocks in which >many perhaps as many investors were interested. As a matter of fact, a good >part of the stock market had been more or less depressed all through 1929. >The soaring of the averages made a rousing spectacle. The persistence of >the ideal that all stocks were going through the roof in the autumn of 1929 >is a monument to the power of a popular myth. Tuesday Sepetember 3, 1929 >-the day the market averages reached the all time highs that was to endure >for a quarter of a century. > >Wall Street's bull market collapsed (yesterday) with a detonation heard >round the world >Loses ranged from 23.5 points in active stock exchange issues... It was a >day of tumultuous, excited market happenings. The newspaper was the sober >New York Times, the date was June 12 1928 (repeat 1928) > >A year preceding the Wall Street Cash of 1929, a major correction occurred. >What happened 1 September 1998 is the start of another bull market run, in >my opinion. For how long. is anyones guess. My adivce is to buy the big cap >stocks! > >The other important detail is to watch the American banking sector like a >hawk. Already the US banks are declaring huge losses (write offs) with >Russia. > >"Speaking from a perspective of sixty years in banking and business. I have >to say >that banking is the surest, safest and easiest business I have seen or >known... if >your're not actually stupid or dishonest it's hard not to make money in >banking" >-George Moore writing in a Bankers Life of his time with Citibank > >History repeats itself in the year 1998. The figures I have, is upwards of >US$300-$400 billion dollar loans to Russia, world wide are affected. > >Citibank invested in Russia in 1920's. Citibank faced at that time, a >potential loss of 80 percent of its capital. They learned theirt lesson >years ago, with the communist revolution. George Moor chairman during the >1930's rescued Citibank from bankruptcy. Moore, tough and talented saleman, >always kept his 1930's experiences at the front of his mind. They were >reflected in his business decisions, the strategy of the bank that he >influenced or led for two decades, and his insistence that senior >Citibankers not only knew of the bank's past mistakes, but why the decisons >looked right at the time. > >I have been informed that China is another time bomb waiting to explode. The >property >bubble in China has collapsed. Hundreds of half completed or empty buildings >and 80 percent of the loans have come from European banking! Don't under >estimate the signifcance of the banking sector, it is the the "life blood" >of capitalism. Without it, everything comes to a halt. You will be aware of >this, when you realise that Japan and the whole of Asia are in a mess, with >their banks collasping or refusing to declare their losses, hoping to ride >it out! You can't lend out money when your technically >insolvent. The bsiness cycle contracts. > >I believe that American regulators assess the health of their charges >through a CAMEL >rating, in which 1 is the highest and 5 the lowest. CAMEL ratings are never >disclosed, >for the obvious reason that they wish to prevent a public panic and a run on >the banks (publics) money. 3-4 and the board is asked to sign a letter of >agreement, which is a memorandum setting out what the regulator's expect of >the bank's management. Such a letter is what the Citibank board had to sign >in 1992. > >I happen to be a Citibank customer in New Zealand, so I have a personal >interest in these matters. Unles you have been through a crash, the first >sign of trouble is the banking sector, which did occurred in New Zealand in >1987. Banks don't go under today, thank goodness, they either consolidate >and the government regulates heavily or bales them out as a last resort. A >recession usually kicks in or at least slows the economy down as a result. > >Throughout the 1920's, the failure of several hundred banks each year in >the United States was commonplace. When 346 banks failed during the first 6 >months of 1929, >no one took much notice. > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:17:01 -0400 The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag" is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an 8-10% correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week of lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful. Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them. Tom W -----Original Message----- >In a message dated 9/2/98 9:46:55 AM Eastern Daylight Time, >Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be writes: > ><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities > sector. :) >> > >I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is different >this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows almost >always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the new high >list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time. Couple this >with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at a four >year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that WON is >sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing follows >though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a heathly base. >Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy these >lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market breadth. If >this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap tech. > >DCsquires > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400 I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all. ( Here or the other haunts I hang out.) The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor. Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately. Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was suggesting! Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DCSquires@mindspring.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:24:38 -0400 >The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag" >is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an 8-10% >correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week of >lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack >of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly >several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful. >Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even >longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them. Tom, I must respectfully disagreed. I believe your market experience is quite a bit longer then mine but in the current market breadth has been a leader not a laggard. The new highs in the S&P and the NASDAQ came with breadth leading to the downside and the quadruple bottom that we all thought would hold was lead downward by market breadth.(new highs new lows, advances and declines) Even today with the market closing down breadth for once in a long time is was positive muting the effect of the intraday reversal. Just my opinion, FWIW. DCSquires >><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' >Utilities >> sector. :) >> >> >>I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is >different >>this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows >almost >>always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the >new high >>list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time. >Couple this >>with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at >a four >>year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that >WON is >>sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing >follows >>though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a >heathly base. >>Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy >these >>lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market >breadth. If >>this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap >tech. >> >>DCsquires >> >>- >> > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Dow Transports Revisited Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:25:38 -0400 The Dow Transports closed at 2702.55. I believe, and will try to verify that this has violated a very long term trend line that existed from 1985. If this is true, it could imply very serious trouble for the market. I am posting a cut/paste of my message regarding the Transports from 8/13. The Transports have been determined to not have more than a momentary blip of an up day for 6 weeks. Yesterdays 280+ point gain for the DOW, found the Transports up a whopping 1.26 points. I won't bother with figuring the percentage, it is miniscule. Perhaps worthy of watching for any hopeful sign of support at this point. The bad news is the last recognizable support resistance area (after breaching the long term trend line) is 2300. It should hold at that point. Yup, another 15% down. Somehow, within the next few days, we'll find out if this Bull has anything at all left. I'm not very encouraged anymore. Frank Wolynski Here's my earlier post: Dow Jones Transports Observations/Thoughts/Ramblings: Price Indicator: 3004.71 50day MOV: 3365.65 200day MOV: 3368.39 The 50day MOV moved beneath the 200day MOV today for the first time in years. Since 1994 in fact if I am reading Big Charts correctly. The good news is that it is extended beneath the 200day MOV almost as much as it was above. Probably within a few percent anyway. BC shows the index back to 1985 and that is as far I as could look, but the Index appears to do this every few years or so. Related to the price of Oil? Maybe. Probably. Are we at the bottom. I think not, but it is interesting how it has built bottoms during the past 13 years. Not that this one will be the same, but the period does embrace two full fledge Bear markets, 1987 and 1994. I believe in balance in the scales and equal swings in the pendulum. More or less. The transport high was put in at 3686.02 on 4/16/98. The 200day MOV was 3214.57 A difference of roughly 472 points. Today the index stands at 3004.71 The 200day MOV is 3368.39 A difference of roughly 364 points. Does this infer an additional 108 point downside potential then a bottom building? Maybe. It is interesting that the low reached on 10/28/97 of 2916.43 is approx 88 points away from todays close. I also find it interesting that the close on 10/27/98 was 3004.58! Within .13 of todays close! Wowzer..... If I do all this mumbo jumbo with the high of 4/16/98 instead of the close, then the separation becomes, 3735.37 - 3214.57, or 520.80. Then the low figure beneath the 200day MOV becomes 3368.39 - 520.80 or 2847.59. Another interesting number! On 8/29/98 the low was 2844.30, pretty close. There is also a long term trendline that has a first point in late 1994, then some touching in fall of 1996. This trendline, as best as I can draw it extends currently to slightly over 2700. Of course time will cause the trendline value to increase over the coming days and it would not surprise me to see the value up nearer to 2800 by the time an intersection is approaching. I wish I knew the Fibonacci numbers for the last transport advance, the fall of 96 to the top in early 98. It could be interesting. I don't have much trouble picturing the transports getting to the levels indicated above, that implies at least another 150 to 300 points to the downside. And it appears that would be approximately a 50% retrace of the advance referenced above. The transports are certainly starting to take on a hopeless graph shape! And we all know what that means! Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:42:00 -0400 Maybe I failed to state what I meant clearly. Over the last leg up, I watched the indexes hit new highs, yet on many days the nr of stocks advancing was overwhelmed by the nr of stocks declining. Likewise, the nr of stocks making new highs was far surpassed by the nr of stocks making new lows. What this told me was that the stocks that were still performing were mostly the ones in the indexes. I would expect to see mkt averages increase for several days at least before the moving average of new highs would begin to show an improvement. I tend to rely only on the 10 day moving averages of new highs/lows and of up/down volume as it smoothed out the results and gives me a clearer picture. Tom W -----Original Message----- > > > >>The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag" >>is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an 8-10% >>correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week of >>lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack >>of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly >>several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful. >>Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even >>longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them. > > >Tom, > >I must respectfully disagreed. I believe your market experience is quite a >bit longer then mine but in the current market breadth has been a leader not >a laggard. The new highs in the S&P and the NASDAQ came with breadth leading >to the downside and the quadruple bottom that we all thought would hold was >lead downward by market breadth.(new highs new lows, advances and declines) >Even today with the market closing down breadth for once in a long time is >was positive muting the effect of the intraday reversal. Just my opinion, >FWIW. > >DCSquires > > > >>><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' >>Utilities >>> sector. :) >> >>> >>>I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is >>different >>>this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows >>almost >>>always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the >>new high >>>list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time. >>Couple this >>>with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at >>a four >>>year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that >>WON is >>>sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing >>follows >>>though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a >>heathly base. >>>Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy >>these >>>lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market >>breadth. If >>>this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap >>tech. >>> >>>DCsquires >>> >>>- >>> >> >> >>- >> > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 06:37:40 -0400 Johann wrote: > Operative words here *IMHO* "we may get a few false starts". (Opinion) > > I'd expect a rally to to the 200MA at best. (Opinion) > > New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities > sector. :) > > Were is the breadth? But that could change of course, since it is only day > 1 now. > > Were are the bases to launch from? I don't see any. > > Were are the new leading sectors? Still to early of course. > > Sentiment: Bearish. So that is a definite positive. > > Just, some extra noises, although maybe a bit less pleasant. :) > > We have day 1 and we have the bearish sentiment, so I fully understand and > admire your determination to start counting and playing 'M'. > > Hope you don't mind me being a interested 'spectator' with only some extra > noises to contribute. > Actually, Johann, these "noises" of yours are exceedingly "pleasant" and precisely the type I find so encouraging. Determined I am, but counting is nothing to be admired, as far as I'm concerned. It is the process, take it or leave it. The compulsion to stay in the market, to not miss out is so strong, it is a necessary part of the discipline, in my "OPINION". If WON finds the count 80% reliable as a precursor to a change of market direction when proper follow through occurs, why must we clutter it up with so much noise, extra indicators, news, thoughts, etc.? Do we think that we can improve the count to, say, 82%? Counting doesn't make us feel smart or sophisticated or possessed of awesome market savy and prowess, perhaps? Somebody at work, our pension plan manager (yeah right), began to show some interest in my market calls on Monday (more pleasant noises, I suppose). I'd blurted the last few out to him, and somehow when he was feeling pain, he remembered what I had said back in July. Imagine the look on his face when I told him that my method was little more than counting on my ten fingers. He'll never respect the count, even if he took the time to actually learn it. What would he tell his clients? "Uh, Mrs. Jones, I think it's a good time to add significantly to your equity exposure because we had a 1% on volume day in the indices within 3-10 days of a climax low"? Why would they let him prance around in that important car, in important suits holding up his fingers in front of his face all the time? I agree there are no bases and leadership is not yet emergent, or at least not evident at this point. However, breadth was positive on the day Tuesday, and improved yesterday. I'll count... Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 06:10:53 -0700 (PDT) <> If he gave this advice based on the false signal of two weeks ago, I imagine Mrs. Jones would be pretty ticked :) --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 10:16:40 -0400 > >If he gave this advice based on the false signal of two weeks ago, I >imagine Mrs. Jones would be pretty ticked :) > >--Db > I did not trust that signal and did not act on it, but could not explain it at the time beyond saying it "felt" wrong. So I held my "opinion", rightly or wrongly. Now I have a sense of why it felt wrong, but don't have (yet) a rigorous reason to ignore one like it in the future. It seemed false (I can say in review) because: 1) the market had only just begun to correct (there had been too short a time since the pullback began and we got the first sell signal). 2) there was not a batch of leadership stocks (new or old) breaking out concurrent with the signal (and no new bases to launch from) 3) the previous rally had been extremely short, as I said earlier, like the last sprint of a bull before its shakey legs surrendered and it collapsed Separately, even though Mrs. Jones may have lost a few percent in the false signal. If Mr. Pension Fund knew what we know now - ie. what Mike Lucero recently quoted from O'Neils book, HTMMIS: WON says "There will be some scarce cses where whipsaws may occur; however, in almost every situation where the rally has a valid follow-through and then abruptly fails, the market will very quickly come crashing down on furious volume, normally the next day. Just because the market corrects the day after a follow-through, however, does not mean the upward follow-through was false. When the general market bottoms, it frequently backs and fills (testing) near the lows made during the previous few weeks. It is usually more constructive if these pullbacks or tests hold up at least a little above the absoluve intraday lows made recently in the market averages." This exactly describes the action on 8/26 and 8/27. I said at the time that 8/26 looked like a fresh sell signal (and probably the third one to me) and that you should be 75% or more cash as of that signal (that day). Even if Mrs. Jones was put back in the market at the high on the 18th (buy signal) and jumped out 100% at the low on the 27th (definite sell signal if you did not trust the 26th), she would have only lost 10%. That is a lot better than her losses had she ignored all of the sell and buy signals and simply held right along into the bear market now underway. One of the keys to this whole thing is to be nimble. Not just to bend like a tree in the wind and respond to what the market says, but to recognize the signals dead on and jump in or out instantaneously (that day) when the signal occurs. Same thing on a more refined scale vis a vis individual stocks. Look at the climax run defined by LU recently. The day it had the exhaustion gap was the day to jump out (just as the breakout day, near the pivot is the day to jump in). Additionally, if a stock starts acting wrong and it starts giving signals that the breakout might fail you have to be nimble and not question your judgement and sell some or all immediately. If you wait for a bounce from below your 5% stop say and it does not come, you can find yourself down 12% on a failed breakout very quickly (even in a roaring bull). O'Neil is fond of saying that it takes a year or two to learn this stuff and get it right. I must be a very slow learner, it has taken me a lot longer than that. Part of it is personality of course. But part of it is the subtleties, even on a simple count. But the basics, which will keep you far ahead of the game and can be taught fairly quickly (even if you do go for a false buy signal in the market - as long as you honor the following big sell signal, and the earlier sell signals). Well this is running too long. Best regards to all, Craig BTW - I must mention how much I have been enjoying everybody's posts lately ... Frank Wolynski, Jeffry White, Joahn Van Houtven, Tom Worley, Mike Lucero, DCSquires, Dbphoenix, Walter Stock and others (sorry if your name did not come to mind right now). The posts have been excellent. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 07:47:15 -0700 (PDT) <> Only if she had been placed in an index fund. If she had been placed in the wrong stocks instead and the prices gapped down through her stops, she could have lost far more. I see nothing wrong with applying common sense acquired through experience--as you have--to this "simple" counting procedure. One can also, as others have, look for a reversal low and apply sentiment figures (or resistance or moving averages). But even if one maintains unquestioning faith in the "simplicity" of the method, one still must find stocks which have been basing for six to eight weeks and are near a new high, along with at least a few other stocks which are in the same group and which are also showing strength. What is simple to the experienced is not necessarily simple to the novice. The experienced, for example, may be more likely to pull the trigger quickly when he feels that something isn't right based on what he's been through in similar past situations. The novice may be more likely to give the "method" extra breathing room, thinking perhaps that he may have it wrong. Granted this may be more the fault of the novice than of the method, but it's a mistake to give the impression that this particular approach works without fail. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 15:03:51 GMT On Tue, 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400, you wrote: :What a beautiful reversal day. Not a gap down open flushing, but a :solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow :through. New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close. : :Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in :my book. WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation :signals. The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon :a reversal low of these proportions. : :Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen :it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn. Water cooler, radio, :newspaper, this group, etc. : :Pleasant Noises. : :Jeff Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment) about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on its own? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 08:10:11 -0700 >>>Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on its own? <<< No, I started counting on Tuesday. I'm waiting for the action next Tuesday - Friday (assuming Monday is a stock market holiday, right?) > -----Original Message----- > From: musicant@autobahn.org [SMTP:musicant@autobahn.org] > Sent: Thursday, September 03, 1998 11:04 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises > > On Tue, 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400, you wrote: > > :What a beautiful reversal day. Not a gap down open flushing, but a > :solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow > :through. New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close. > : > :Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in > :my book. WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation > :signals. The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon > :a reversal low of these proportions. > : > :Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen > :it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn. Water cooler, radio, > :newspaper, this group, etc. > : > :Pleasant Noises. > : > :Jeff > > Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many > ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment) > about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume > confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs > only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a > reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through > before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that > Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on > its own? > > Dan > > musicant@autobahn.org > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 03 Sep 1998 13:20:33 -0400 At 03:03 PM 9/3/98 GMT, you wrote: >Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many >ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment) >about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume >confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs >only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a >reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through >before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that >Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on >its own? > >Dan > >musicant@autobahn.org > Caught without my book, but WON sez to purposefully ignore the first two days! The follow through is valid only if it occurs between 3-7 days after the low. Sometimes out to 10 days, but the resulting rally will usually be weak by comparison. Count from Closing low: Monday 8/31, today is #3 window will run until next Thursday, or the following Monday for the 10 day version. This assumes the 8/31 low holds. Count from Intraday low: just add one to the above. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear Date: 03 Sep 1998 18:48:20 -0400 A bit off subject - the bull market run from the July 1990 bear. Advances and with corrections (-10 to -20% = correction, more than -20% = bear) in a table. Based on a look at the weekly NASDAQ chart. I did not attempt to find buy/sell signals. I attempted to find the date for each significant top and bottom. FWIW, here it is with approximate durations and percent gain/loss from the valley to peak, then peak to new valley, etc. Advance/ Start End Approx Peak to Valley Decline Date Date Months Percent Dec 90-07-27 91-01-25 5 mo down -40% Bear Mkt Adv 91-01-25 91-06-07 4 mo up +50% Dec 91-06-07 91-07-05 1 mo down -10% Minor Correction Adv 91-07-05 92-02-14 7 mo up +40% Dec 92-02-14 92-10-09 8 mo down -20% Correction Adv 92-10-09 93-02-05 4 mo up +20% Dec 93-02-05 93-04-30 3 mo down -10% Minor Correction Adv 93-04-30 94-03-18 11 mo up +20% Dec 94-03-18 94-06-24 3 mo down -20% Correction Adv 94-06-24 94-10-28 4 mo up +15% Dec 94-10-28 94-12-16 2 mo down -7% Minor Correction Adv 94-12-16 95-09-15 9 mo up +35% Dec 95-09-15 96-01-19 4 mo down -10% Minor Correction Adv 96-01-19 96-05-24 4 mo up +30% Dec 96-05-24 96-07-26 2 mo down -20% Correction Adv 96-07-26 97-01-31 6 mo up +30% Dec 97-01-31 97-05-02 3 mo down -15% Correction Adv 97-05-02 97-10-10 5 mo up +35% Dec 97-10-10 98-01-16 3 mo down -15% Correction Adv 98-01-16 98-04-24 3 mo up +20% Dec 98-04-24 98-06-19 2 mo down -10% Minor Correction Adv 98-06-19 98-07-17 1 mo up +20% Dec 98-07-24 98-09-03 1 1/2 mo -25% Bear Mkt (so far? ...) On 03/30/90, the NASDAQ closed at 328. Today's close was 1574. Thats almost 500% in 8 1/2 years. Best regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises - Dan M. Date: 03 Sep 1998 14:24:400 -0500 >>Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many >>ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment) >>about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume >>confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs >>only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a >>reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through >>before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that >>Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on >>its own? >>Dan >>musicant@autobahn.org Sorry if my "poem" offended you, Dan. Was not trying to be poetic, but I'll take it as a compliment. ;) Certainly was not trying to be offensive, but it seems to come easily for me, in this group at least. 80% reliability on confirmation signals (1% on volume/follow through days) is correct, and I'm not sure why my "poem" suggested otherwise. Tuesday's huge volume and 1% move was nothing more than a "low" from which to count for confirmation. I count from the intraday low, so today is day 2. Perhaps it was my excitement which made my post unclear to you. My enthusiasm came from the magnitude of the reversal and the record/near record volume, depending upon the index you watch. I also like the sentiment numbers here which crossed over to the bearish side: 43.2% bearish, 40.7% bullish. Still need to see confirmation, as you state. And then the task is only half done, right? I suppose I bang the countdown drum so routinely and loudly that it is easy for the disbelievers to scoff and suggest that it's not so simple. It must appear, when I fail to properly couch my comments, that I am suggesting that one need do nothing more than count in a brainless manner, shoot and ask questions later. Not so, and so, for the -enth time I should say that it IS that simple, but ONLY as an indicator to start checking for leadership emergence, A/D support (although a lagging indicator, important in rally attempts), and new highs (also a laggard, IMO, as Tom points out, but it is where the focus must shift to help monitor the strength and emergence of candidates). It is not a 100% reliable indicator. It is not (IMO) one where even a "nimble" CANSLIM'er should dash out and load the boat, and margin to the hilt. It is, however, a possible precursor to 50% of the game we are playing....getting the "M" right, right? Please excuse my "poetic" enthusiasm. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. IBD Date: 03 Sep 1998 18:59:40 EDT People: I thought this IBD article in today's paper would be of interest to those who might be too eager out there: The month of August put a quick end to the June-July rally. But late summer setbacks are common in the stock market. In the past 28 years, August has been one of the lowest-gaining months on the Dow Jones industrial average. And if you think summer months are slow, just wait until September and October. ''September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market,'' said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns. ''Over the past 28 years, the Dow has fallen nearly three-quarters of the time in September, posting an average loss of almost 1%.'' I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R October's average loss is about half that of September's for the same time frame. Just last year, the Dow was dealt a 554-point, or 7.2% blow on Oct. 27. And it's hard to forget Black Monday, when the Dow took a 22.6% plunge on Oct. 19, still the greatest one-day percentage loss on Wall Street. Monday's 513-point, or 6.4% dive, came on the last day of August. It's difficult to know whether this means the usual decline came early or if it portends an ugly September and October. Seasonal patterns do seem to change over long spans of history. ''December has been the best month since the Second World War, but only the second best month since 1885,'' wrote Jeremy Siegel, finance professor for the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, in ''Stocks For The Long Run,'' a landmark study of returns of different asset classes. Nevertheless, the winter months have proven to be some of the strongest, on average. The Dow has rebounded 1.1% in November and 1.9% in December. January has been the top-performing month since '70, with a 2.3% gain. And if it's been this way for 27 years, will this indicate a naturally positive end to the U.S. stock market blues this year? Experts agree that's hard to say. But if the seasonal pattern of the past 27 years continues, one would be inclined to think so. ''Theories confirmed by market action are of great interest to me,'' said John Bollinger, of Manhattan Beach, Calif.-based Bollinger Capital Management. ''But theories by themselves are a good way to lose money.'' Using the S&P 500 index, Bollinger generated a chart that shows volatility levels from '70 through '97. What he found: The first eight months of the year tend to be strong. September is typically flat, and October is the weakest. From November, the market turns around and rallies. ''It's very hard to understand what the seasonal forces are,'' Bollinger said. One popular theory is that tax-related selling in the fall quarter accounts for the September and October weaknesses. ''However, the phenomenon persists in countries that have differing tax structures and differing fiscal years,'' he said. So no matter what the theories for seasonal volatility are, he says, ''they exist, they are persistent, and they're worth paying attention to.'' Siegel noted in his book: ''In every country but Austria, January returns are greater than average. Outside the United States, January returns constitute 30% of total stock returns on a value-weighted basis. Investor enthusiasm in January also seems to infect the neighboring months of December through February.'' Once the market is in a downtrend, says stock historian Yale Hirsch, usually panic will set in at some point in the summer. ''Then (there's) a waterfall decline when a lot of people who are skeptical want to get the hell out,'' he said. But in the last 15 years, he says, bear markets have grown briefer. ''You would think events could drive it,'' Hirsch said, ''but what should have done it were the events in Southeast Asia last year. The market had so much money coming in, it was discounted. What we're seeing now is people seeing reality and fear setting in, upsetting the balance between supply and demand.'' Many institutional investors such as mutual funds may also sell large positions in the latter half of the year in an effort to hold on to their earlier gains, causing heavy sell-offs. Cooper says she was surprised to see that September turned out to be worse than October in the Dow's average monthly percentage change chart. ''It's been that way for years,'' she said. ''In 1929, the crash was in October and the decline started in September.'' She knows of no reason for the two- month average underperformance. ''Each time, there's a different story,'' she said. ''In the case of the October '87 crash, interest rates were rising dramatically.'' She sees no reason why this year's market activity won't follow the seasonal pattern. ''I don't think the correction's over yet. There's still earnings concerns, and still potential further destabilizing forces in the global economy.'' Southeast Asia and Japan are already in the midst of their currency woes, and Russia has just joined the crowd. Cooper thinks Latin America will suffer the next string of devaluations, perhaps followed by China and Hong Kong. Experts think it's highly unlikely the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates any time soon. In fact, they say, the Fed is more likely to ease rates. ''I think raising interest rates would be the equivalent of committing suicide,'' said Hirsch. ''In order to give us a boost, it would probably be a lowering of rates.'' Hirsch said last week he thinks the market should touch bottom ''fairly soon,'' especially given the expected seasonal downturn. ''For it to be extended beyond that, the world economy would really have to go into the tank.'' And when economic situations get very bleak, he says, governments often get moving to try to ease the problems. So if the market follows the typical seasonal pattern by bottoming out in October and ending the year with a rally, it seems, no one will be very surprised. Hirsch isn't expecting a rally to start much earlier than normal. ''If Clinton wasn't tarnished, his going to Moscow (this week) might have turned it around,'' he said. It's hard to see light at the end of the tunnel right now, but looking back to last year, things seemed just as glum. Asia began roiling in September, culminating in the harsh Oct. 27 sell- off, but the market still staged a rally by the end of the year. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (09/03/98) Will Fall's Slide Lead To Winter's Rally? By Nancy Gondo 09/02/98 20:51 jans - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 03 Sep 1998 22:40:27 -0400 Scott Vickery wrote: > > Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my > decision on which charting software to use without trying them all > out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000. > > My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the > direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more > likely, an approximation of CASLI? > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and you can fine tune it to meet your needs: Chart List: All Stocks EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C") Value 25 - Max Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A") Value 25 - Max EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS") Rank 75 - 99 Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS") Rank 75 - 99 Sales growth rate Value 15 - Max Price as percent of 52 week high Value 85 - Max Price per share Value 15 - Max Price vs 200 day moving average Value 100 - Max Price vs 40 day moving average Value 94 - Max Volume surge 5 day Value 150 - Max Since small stocks have been underperforming, I haven't screened out large caps (although the 25% EPS growth minima knocks out most of them). But you could do this by limiting capitalization. With the recent selloff, the 40 day MA culls 77% of stocks, the 150% minimum volume surge culls 64% more, and the 15% sales growth minimum culls 62% of those. This fairly strict scan produces only 6 stocks today: CPWR, EMC, JKHY, KRON, PAYX, and SAI. Try playing around with the criteria if you want a longer list--it only takes a couple of seconds to run each scan. I hope this will help you get started. Al French - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Financial Glossaries site Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:36:10 +0200 For time to new someone posts a request for a Financial glossary. Came across one while looking for the definition of a "Coppock Curve". The Directory Of Financial Glossaries can be found at: http://www.e-analytics.com/glossdir.htm -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Coppock Curve Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:40:20 +0200 At Ian Woodward's site there has been some talk about the Coppock Curve recently. Is anyone on this list familiar with this curve? Her are some sites that have information on the Coppock curve: http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/volume16listing.htm Coppock Curve Interpretation: http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/coppock_curve_interpretation.htm Note on the "killer wave" and the long-term momentum oscillator: http://208.149.178.115/killer.htm Stock market cycles: http://www.consensus-inc.com/061397/fin-com/fc-sc.htm -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment excerpt for Jeffrey from Coppock Curve Article Date: 04 Sep 1998 05:45:52 -0400 Thanks Johan for the Coppock article links, good reading for a wet central Florida Friday. I've extracted a few sentences (without permission) concerning sentiment at a time when the lack of bullish was a precursor, not a contrary indicator. I know Jeffrey closely follows sentiment and thought this particular segment was an eyebrow raiser. Best Regards, Frank In a Barron's column dated October 29, 1973 (the arrow on the chart points to the week that includes that date), Alan Abelson wrote: "...There are no signs of the beginning of anything terminal. An awful wad of dough has been squirreled away in short-term paper, and, as rates come down, the attraction vis-a-vis stocks is bound to diminish, to the benefit of equities. Moreover, the amount of professional skepticism around remains reassuringly large...latest survey of advisory services shows a precipitous drop in the number of bulls, to 39% of the total, from 50% the previous week and 57.6% two weeks earlier. (The pro portion of bears, 28.8% in the latest compilation, has held comparatively steady.) Bull moves rarely end with most seers looking downward." The column appeared the very day of the high before the 40% plus decline. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] More random thoughts Date: 04 Sep 1998 07:56:25 -0400 World economic problems continue, and directly contributed to the sentiment shift from bullish to bearish. Russia among some others has rebounded, however Japan continues to slip and closed last night close to again going under 14,000. Oil futures moved up sharply yesterday, in part on production problems and/or local discord in several producer countries, as well as the Russian problems which is expected to disrupt oil delivery (Russia is the third largest producer country if I remember my stats). Despite this, Venezuela dropped another 222 points (7.5%) to another new 12 month low. That market is now down 75% for the past year. Brazil is also starting to crack open, don't know if it can avoid the massive selloff that has hit other emerging market countries. VIX continued to move higher closing over 43. I am seeing more talk of the small caps being a place to put money for the long haul, one comment even coming from an aggressive big cap fund manager. General concensus seems to be that that may be one of the few areas where good earnings growth may still be possible for the next year or two. Had to take another stock off the watch list yesterday after it got a stock buyout offer 44% over mkt and rocketed. Wish I'd owned it, oh well. I think we may be entering a period of increased acquisition and merger activity, as companies try to improve earnings or market share that way, also taking advantage of depressed share prices. I hear a lot of chatter about a "head and shoulders" in the Dow 30 and it going to 4500 before beginning a new bull mkt (not quite convinced that the aging bull has yet expired, tho it's probably on life support now). At DGO, the chart for overbot/oversold pegs out at 899 either way. For a week now, even after the big reversal on heavy volume, it remained pegged out at -899. There has been some increase in avg up volume, however the increase in down vol still higher. The avg new highs on both exchanges is silly, with most of the ones on Nasdaq resulting from news, not earnings. On NYSE, most of the new highs are utilities and bond funds. We remain mired in deep doo doo, so keep counting and keep the powder dry. There is still hope since there is a wealth of money on the sidelines now, as well as likely still a huge short position. The dollar has weakened dramatically recently, partly due to continued Japanese repatriation to meet domestic needs (or prepare for intervention). There has also been a lot of selling to meet margin calls. So far the bond mkt continues to benefit from the "flight to safety" despite the drop in the dollar, however should this "flight" be grounded, we could see profit taking in the bond mkt, potentially releasing even more money that could flow back to equities if by then it looks attractive. Meanwhile, the unexpected worldwide weakness in the dollar is helping other currencies (or their strength is weakening the dollar) and could ultimately help increase US exports and maybe breathe a spark of fire into several other economies. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] One from my watch list Date: 04 Sep 1998 08:01:41 -0400 One gem to watch, despite being a semi conductor, is Transwitch (TXCC). Orderly retreat, and in the past 3 days completely wiped out a month long slide to hit a new high on heavy volume. Suspect a rumor that I have not yet picked up on. NOT A BUY members, just worth watching and learning as it has good CS criteria. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises - Dan M. Date: 04 Sep 1998 12:48:22 GMT On Thu, 3 Sep 98 14:24:400 -0500, you wrote: :>>Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many :>>ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment) :>>about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume :>>confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs :>>only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a :>>reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through :>>before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that :>>Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on :>>its own? : :>>Dan : :>>musicant@autobahn.org : :Sorry if my "poem" offended you, Dan. Was not trying to be poetic, but = I'll=20 :take it as a compliment. ;) Certainly was not trying to be offensive, = but=20 :it seems to come easily for me, in this group at least. I was certainly not offended. I said "Nice poem" and I meant exactly that! I was not being sarcastic or facetious. Be as poetic as you like, Jeff. That was my message AFA your expressiveness is concerned, pure and simple. : :80% reliability on confirmation signals (1% on volume/follow through = days)=20 :is correct, and I'm not sure why my "poem" suggested otherwise. = Tuesday's=20 :huge volume and 1% move was nothing more than a "low" from which to = count=20 :for confirmation. I count from the intraday low, so today is day 2. Yes. Well, I thought that wasn't clear from your post, and I know you are aware of WON's wonderful "M" determining, market bottom determining methodology...far better than I, certainly, and I therefore asked about it. My impression was that you had declared that there was an 80% certainty that the bottom had been determined, and my impression from what I know is that this will only be the case IF a follow through occurs ... a follow through that HAS YET TO HAPPEN. That's what we are counting and watching for (preferably day 3 to 8, as I recall, right?). : :Perhaps it was my excitement which made my post unclear to you. My=20 :enthusiasm came from the magnitude of the reversal and the record/near=20 :record volume, depending upon the index you watch. I also like the=20 :sentiment numbers here which crossed over to the bearish side: 43.2%=20 :bearish, 40.7% bullish. Still need to see confirmation, as you state. = And=20 :then the task is only half done, right? : :I suppose I bang the countdown drum so routinely and loudly that it is = easy=20 :for the disbelievers to scoff and suggest that it's not so simple. It = must=20 :appear, when I fail to properly couch my comments, that I am suggesting = that=20 :one need do nothing more than count in a brainless manner, shoot and ask= =20 :questions later. : :Not so, and so, for the -enth time I should say that it IS that simple, = but=20 :ONLY as an indicator to start checking for leadership emergence, A/D = support=20 :(although a lagging indicator, important in rally attempts), and new = highs=20 :(also a laggard, IMO, as Tom points out, but it is where the focus must=20 :shift to help monitor the strength and emergence of candidates). It is = not=20 :a 100% reliable indicator. It is not (IMO) one where even a "nimble"=20 :CANSLIM'er should dash out and load the boat, and margin to the hilt. : :It is, however, a possible precursor to 50% of the game we are=20 :playing....getting the "M" right, right? : :Please excuse my "poetic" enthusiasm. : :JW Absolutely no excuses necessary. You can be Keats, if you like. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Alex" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ES8U ??? Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:45:36 +0200 Hi everybuddy :) > If this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap > tech. What's ES8U - I've never heard it? Is it a stock symbol for an index much like spy??? thank you, Alexander Herrmann eMail: alex@who.net -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Airlines... Radar: Flight 1234, for noise abatement turn right 45 degrees Pilot: Roger, but we are at 35.000 feet, how much noise can we make up here ? Radar: Sir, have you ever heard the noise a 707 makes when it hits a 727 ? Radar: CRX 500, are you on a course to SUL ? Pilot: More or less Radar: So proceed a little bit more to SUL Tower: N2234, are you a Cessna ? Pilot: No, I'm a male hispanic Pilot: ... request heading 110 to avoid" Radar: To avoid what ? Pilot: To avoid delay Pilot: Radar, this is Cessna 4675 Radar: Cessna 4675, go ahead Pilot: Radar, I dont seem to be making much progress here. How is my groundspeed ? Radar: Well, all depends. If you are a hang glider, you are doing very well. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DCSquires@mindspring.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ES8U ??? Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:46:08 -0400 >Hi everybuddy :) > >> If this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap >> tech. > > >What's ES8U - I've never heard it? Is it a stock symbol for an index much >like spy??? > >thank you, >Alexander Herrmann The ES8U is a futures contract(for September) know as the "mini" S&P. Buying this contract is lower risk than buying the big S&P contract because the leverage is lower. When the S&P cash moves one point it represents a $50 change in equity for the mini S&P. For the big S&P contract equity fluctuates $250 for every 1 point move. The margin requirements are also much lower. "ES" is the base symbol for the contract, "8" represents the last digit of the contract year(1998) and "U" represent the contract title month, which in this case is September. I hope this helps. DCSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP Date: 04 Sep 1998 19:44:47 +0200 For those who like to study FAILED break-outs, take a look at CATP. Was an excellent CANSLIM stock at one point, BTW. Good example of why you need a stop-loss and have to obey it! And not talk yourself into becoming a long-term holder, value investor or whatever. I remember that Kevin Marder mentioned it as a speculative market leader when we had the follow-through day in July. Broke down on 07/16. Down ever since and today they are hitting it really hard again. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP Date: 04 Sep 1998 11:11:04 -0700 (PDT) <> Why would a value investor be interested in this stock? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP Date: 04 Sep 1998 21:20:05 +0200 At 11:11 AM 04-09-98 -0700, you wrote: ><not talk >yourself into becoming a long-term holder, value investor or whatever.>> > >Why would a value investor be interested in this stock? > >--Db Did I say that a value investor should be interested in CATP? I certainly hope I didn't! Maybe I didn't make it clear that the comment you quoted was a generalised comment about failed breakouts. I have noticed that some, especially beginning CANSLIMers, tend to talk themselves into holding their position in a 'failed' breakout just a little longer, and then again a bit longer. They rationalize their behaviour by changing the 'identity' of the position. It was a CANSLIM position, the becomes a long term hold or it is now a value postion or whatever you can come up with to rationalise your behaviour. I can certainly remember going through thoughts like that in the past. I would guess that most of will recognise that kind of thinking. My message was: That kind of behaviour doesn't pay-off in the stock market. Avoid it. Hope it is more clear now. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 10 list weekend review IBD Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:24:18 -0700 (PDT) SWWC Utility water (1) vlgea Retail super/mini (2-6) swy fdlna fdlnb kr ATI Telecom-cell (7) UFS Food (8) WCG Insurance Broker (9-10) EWB TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:37:33 -0700 (PDT) <> Sorry, Johan. I wasn't clear either. A value investor wouldn't have been interested before, and might not be interested even now. The fact that a stock is cheaper doesn't necessarily mean that it represents value. CATP might be too expensive even now. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that one shouldn't use "value" as a rationalization for holding on to a losing position. I'm just adding a reminder than value investing involves something more than looking for stocks that have lost a substantial percentage of their market cap. There may be individuals who have held on to losing positions throughout this whole mess who are having difficulty figuring out what to do. It's a real test of objectivity to determine whether the stock is a real piece of junk and should be written off, or whether it does now represent real value and an opportunity to add to the position. One question might be whether one would now be interested in the stock--whatever it might be--if one didn't already own it. If the answer's no, then one has to wonder why anyon else would be interested in it either. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings Date: 04 Sep 1998 20:33:15 -0000 Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates the top performers in each industry? TIA James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings Date: 04 Sep 1998 23:20:07 -0400 Using the Market Guide Sectors/Industries, not the IBD, each sector and Industry Group is ranked daily, (although somewhat sporadically in their updates when I frequented the site last fall). http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/RESEARCH/whatshot.html?NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.URLK ey=undefined&NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.userchar=undefined If that link didn't come through try this one and select 'What's Hot' from the tabs. http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/ I don't think it is what you are looking for, but the best I can do for daily rankings. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski At 20:33 9/4/98 -0000, you wrote: >Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates >the top performers in each industry? > >TIA >James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA >http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear Date: 05 Sep 1998 04:37:39 GMT Very cool beans, Craig. This isn't off-topic as far as I'm concerned. Thanks. I do believe that this illustrates that you can certainly improve your returns by "timing the market". Dan On Thu, 03 Sep 1998 18:48:20 -0400, you wrote: :A bit off subject - the bull market run from the July 1990 bear. = Advances :and with corrections (-10 to -20% =3D correction, more than -20% =3D = bear) in a :table. : :Based on a look at the weekly NASDAQ chart. I did not attempt to find :buy/sell signals. I attempted to find the date for each significant top = and :bottom. FWIW, here it is with approximate durations and percent = gain/loss :from the valley to peak, then peak to new valley, etc. : :Advance/ Start End Approx Peak to Valley :Decline Date Date Months Percent : :Dec 90-07-27 91-01-25 5 mo down -40% Bear Mkt :Adv 91-01-25 91-06-07 4 mo up +50% =20 :Dec 91-06-07 91-07-05 1 mo down -10% Minor Correction :Adv 91-07-05 92-02-14 7 mo up +40% =20 :Dec 92-02-14 92-10-09 8 mo down -20% Correction :Adv 92-10-09 93-02-05 4 mo up +20% =20 :Dec 93-02-05 93-04-30 3 mo down -10% Minor Correction :Adv 93-04-30 94-03-18 11 mo up +20% =20 :Dec 94-03-18 94-06-24 3 mo down -20% Correction :Adv 94-06-24 94-10-28 4 mo up +15% :Dec 94-10-28 94-12-16 2 mo down -7% Minor Correction :Adv 94-12-16 95-09-15 9 mo up +35% :Dec 95-09-15 96-01-19 4 mo down -10% Minor Correction :Adv 96-01-19 96-05-24 4 mo up +30% :Dec 96-05-24 96-07-26 2 mo down -20% Correction :Adv 96-07-26 97-01-31 6 mo up +30% :Dec 97-01-31 97-05-02 3 mo down -15% Correction :Adv 97-05-02 97-10-10 5 mo up +35% :Dec 97-10-10 98-01-16 3 mo down -15% Correction :Adv 98-01-16 98-04-24 3 mo up +20% :Dec 98-04-24 98-06-19 2 mo down -10% Minor Correction :Adv 98-06-19 98-07-17 1 mo up +20% :Dec 98-07-24 98-09-03 1 1/2 mo -25% Bear Mkt (so far? ...) : :On 03/30/90, the NASDAQ closed at 328. Today's close was 1574. Thats :almost 500% in 8 1/2 years. : :Best regards, :Craig : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 05:18:46 GMT On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote: :I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.=20 :( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)=20 :The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but :today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.=20 : :Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was :having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody :really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately. : :Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was :suggesting! Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively, some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you meant by that comment. To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest, too] didn't either.=20 Dan : :Frank Wolynski : : :- musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings Date: 04 Sep 1998 23:54:19 -0700 (PDT) Try this one: http://members.aol.com/RANord/ You can download into EXCEL under group reports for the industries and sort by RS. You can download and correlate the stock lists with the groups- cream has everything. You have your choice of combos of E/R/G with the stock lists. He updates weekly after Friday's close (sometime during the weekend). TM ---James Adams wrote: > > Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates > the top performers in each industry? > > TIA > James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA > http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT) Dan, I looked at the site Frank recommended: http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15. I can see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does this all fit together? Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City? TM ---Dan Musicant wrote: > > On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote: > > :I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all. > :( Here or the other haunts I hang out.) > :The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but > :today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor. > : > :Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was > :having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody > :really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately. > : > :Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was > :suggesting! > > Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only > appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively, > some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on > that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot > going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you > meant by that comment. > > To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by > the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday > alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest, > too] didn't either. > > Dan > : > :Frank Wolynski > : > : > :- > > musicant@autobahn.org > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Another satellite conference Date: 05 Sep 1998 00:22:52 -0700 (PDT) WON has been advertising another satellite conference in 17 cities on Sept. 12. I have the list and numbers if anyone is interested. TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 05 Sep 1998 09:00:36 -0400 This gets me started very well. Thank you. Scott At 10:40 PM 9/3/98 -0400, you wrote: >Scott Vickery wrote: >> >> Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my >> decision on which charting software to use without trying them all >> out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000. >> >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more >> likely, an approximation of CASLI? >> > > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and >you can fine tune it to meet your needs: > > Chart List: All Stocks > EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C") Value 25 - Max > Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A") Value 25 - Max > EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS") Rank 75 - 99 > Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS") Rank 75 - 99 > Sales growth rate Value 15 - Max > Price as percent of 52 week high Value 85 - Max > Price per share Value 15 - Max > Price vs 200 day moving average Value 100 - Max > Price vs 40 day moving average Value 94 - Max > Volume surge 5 day Value 150 - Max > > Since small stocks have been underperforming, I haven't screened out >large caps (although the 25% EPS growth minima knocks out most of >them). But you could do this by limiting capitalization. > > With the recent selloff, the 40 day MA culls 77% of stocks, the 150% >minimum volume surge culls 64% more, and the 15% sales growth minimum >culls 62% of those. This fairly strict scan produces only 6 stocks >today: CPWR, EMC, JKHY, KRON, PAYX, and SAI. Try playing around with the >criteria if you want a longer list--it only takes a couple of seconds to >run each scan. > > I hope this will help you get started. > >Al French > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 05 Sep 1998 11:17:34 -0400 Pretty quiet here, so will pass on another evidence of just how bearish this market is right now. The list of stocks in the DG books that hit a new high last week only totalled 29, lowest I can recall ever seeing outside a true bear market. Of the 29, only the following had both the RS and EPS of 80 or better: MDU, CSC, WATR, PSC, UFS, BEI, ARTNA, USCS (forget it, a takeover already in place), and MATW. Haven't looked at the charts yet to see if any worth watching. There were several others with EPS in the mid 70s which I will be looking at, including one from my watch list (TXCC) which I previously mentioned. Reluctant to even post mention of these after the mkt action on the last two I mentioned (TMBS, TXCC) and all the discussion that resulted. Maybe they'll still help a few lurkers. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:08:15 -0400 At 00:18 9/5/98 -0700, you wrote: >Dan, >I looked at the site Frank recommended: >http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15. I can >see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are >Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it >seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The >drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of >fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does >this all fit together? > >Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest >airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City? > >TM > > The 'never had an accident' reminds me of the way the media chooses our current Stock Guru's. Made a good call 'last week', 'last month', 'last year'. The other 4,876,531 missed that drop/rally/correction. "What made you so astute?" "Well Ron, when I went out to tha bak yard this morn, ole Harley, my pig was just a squeeling! I asked Florence to see if'n she could member when Harley had carried on such! She scratched her belly and looked powr'ful thoughtful and said, Why Oct. of 1987!" I knowed right there and then a storm was a brewing. I called my cousin Ralph Make-Em-Poorer and said sell it all!" I can't answer as to why the Integrated Producers are holding up so well. Perhaps they pass the costs on and are able to achieve fairly even price stability and therefore earnings. Just speculating. However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you know it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the fluctuations in the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other influences that cannot be discounted. The interest rate groupies are all chanting 'The market cannot drop any further, interest rates are too low! Besides Greenspan will lower the Targets and the market will rally, saving us all!' You only have to look at Japan to see the case for exceptions! Thus, oil prices lacking any other influence would be dominating in their influence, toss in Worldwide instability, political upheaval, terrorism, bombs, War, impeachment, commodities collapses, seizure of public money by the government through banks, yadda, yadda, you have a case for extraordinary influence by seemingly remote and removed events! Although I read, study, learn as much as I can in any day, I find the messages the markets themselves give to be the most compelling. It is enough that it is moving. If I ascribe a reason, then when that reason is removed, I anticipate the market now changes also. This is most often not the case. And is one of the reasons why we hold on to losing positions! We think, 'but the economy is good, unemployment low, interest rates low, etc...! New forces and reasons unfold everyday. It is a dynamic thing and changes as fast as you can identify it! I've read that Airlines are also good economic guages by which to see what investors are feeling about the future economic outlook. If this is true, the signal is being given that a substantial slowdown is coming. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:23:03 -0400 At 05:18 9/5/98 GMT, you wrote: > >Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only >appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively, >some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on >that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot >going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you >meant by that comment. > >To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by >the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday >alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest, >too] didn't either. > >Dan >: Actually a friend at work thought it to be an ancient chiness curse! You are correct in your interpretation of my comments. I really hope some strength is exhibited by our Government in dealing with some of these issues. They are indeed perturbing and threatening. They also represent an incredible opportunity for someone to rise to the cause and get some of this under control. How? I do not know! Who, I can't say either! When oil was last at this price, Airlines were in an impressive Bull market. One would have to speculate that Oil was in a reversal and now trending upward to warrant such bearishness on the Airlines ($TRAN down -30%). I think the problem goes deeper than just last weeks oil prices. I think the contraction is underway, the slow down is coming, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. I think the long term investors holding Airline stocks know this and are cashing out. When it is generally recognized and espouted on the media, it is pretty much over. A bottom (or Top) is surely near. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Connie/DB Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:47:23 -0400 Db-- You dismissed BigChart's Money Flow indicator without knowing its formula, but you are below asking those on Woodward's site for help to construct Chaikin's 21-day MF formula: If it [DB's interpretation of how to construct the formula] isn't correct, I'll take it off the board and figure it out with the help of whomever wishes to be kind and earn points with Santa. (So shoot me. We didn't have to study this stuff in abnormal psych.) Db This excerpt from Woodward's site explains several things: [1] You still believe in Santa, an explicable but dysfunctional recrudescence into the nasty reaches of childhood. [2] You studied neither grammar nor usage. "Whomever" in this context is an attempt to be hyper-correct when, in fact, the proper relative pronoun would be "whoever." [3] Your study of abnormal psych (if indeed one can presume Sigmund did allow his work to suffer the label), does explain your mock obedience and petty arrogance toward the less-learned members of Canslim and your sychopancy toward the much-learned members of Woodward's group. [4] And we do not have to be oracular to see your harboring of a death wish: "So shoot me." My pleasure. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 18:36:20 GMT On Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: :Dan,=20 :I looked at the site Frank recommended: :http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=3Dhotsect&REP=3D15. I can :see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are :Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it :seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The :drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of :fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does :this all fit together? : :Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest :airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?=20 : :TM I'm not too aware of the realities of the oil industry, but I do know that it has tremendous power and leverage ... far more than most people can imagine.=20 Exxon is currently at its 200 dma and 4 points under its 50 dma. Why it rose 3.3% yesterday, I don't know, however it fell from the 50 dma over the previous 5 sessions or so.=20 The fact of the matter is that people will buy oil products in good times and bad in this country. However, as you note, they won't drill for new oil if there is oversupply, and there has been and will be for some time to come. Companies like Exxon know how to deal with price fluctuations and can make allowances for them. There's no other way to explain the steady if gradual upward slope of the 200 dma for XON. However, the airlines' stocks have consistently reacted strongly in the opposite direction of the price of oil. I agree with Frank that the recent sell-off in the transportation stocks has something more at play than the price of oil, and his assessment that the economy is contracting and holders of the stocks see the writing on the wall, seems a not unreasonable assessment. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 05 Sep 1998 11:41:06 -0700 (PDT) None of the groups I follow are at--much less above--their 50d MAs. However, a considerable number have at least slowed their descents and may actually be finding bottoms and/or beginning to form bases. The most dramatic and wide-ranging turnarounds have been in the oil groups. I anticipated this in July, but had reasons in mind other than Russia's difficulties. In any event, I'll wait for at least a retest of the lows. These are, of course, cyclical, and therefore not CS, depending on how one interprets Chapter 2, so ignore all this if you want. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises Date: 05 Sep 1998 18:49:34 GMT On Thu, 3 Sep 1998 08:10:11 -0700 , you wrote: :>>>Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume = constitutes a :follow through all on its own? <<< : :No, I started counting on Tuesday. I'm waiting for the action next = Tuesday - :Friday (assuming Monday is a stock market holiday, right?) Yeah, right. We've had 3 sessions since Tuesday, and each was a down day, though none an absolute sell-off like Monday. The best thing about Tuesday was the volume. Greenspan made remarks yesterday that some interpret as a suggestion that the FED may consider a paring of interest rates. That could help spark a some up-action. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 05 Sep 1998 14:09:08 -0700 (PDT) However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too > singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you know > it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the fluctuations in > the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other > influences that cannot be discounted. Thank you, Frank. I'm finding many pitfalls on this journey to becoming a self-styled expert. You'll keep me on the straight and narrow yet . You are absolutely right, even if a correlation were to exist between Airlines and Oil prices, it still wouldn't address cause and effect. TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DCSquires@mindspring.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site Date: 05 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400 Hi all, If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy, Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one free from Microsoft. http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm DCSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: DCSquires@mindspring.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site Date: 05 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400 Hi all, If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy, Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one free from Microsoft. http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm DCSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bill Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rate Reduction Date: 06 Sep 1998 09:47:28 -0700 Greenspan seems to have indicated that an interest rate reduction is not ruled out. With that in mind, which US Government debt obligations will be effected the most? Will the long term bond rates fall more than the medium or short term rates? Anyone have a pointer to a site that tracks this data? Thanks, Bill-->> -------- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports Date: 06 Sep 1998 12:08:27 -0400 On oils and airlines, The major oil refineries have historically benefited most when there is volatility in the price of crude. When crude prices drop, finished product prices fall with a several week lag, and rarely as much. The oil cos excuse is that while crude is now cheaper, they are still refining and retailing more expensive inventory. When crude goes up, a corollary argument is used when prices move up immediately, that is the oil cos say they must immediately raise prices since now they will have to replace cheap inventory with more expensive crude (even tho they are still refining and retailing cheaper inventory). Don't try to figure out the logic, there isn't any, just a tactic that has worked well for profits for several decades. Thus stable prices on crude gives the oil cos less of a "windfall". On airlines, the cost of fuel is a large part of operating expenses, and while some manage to hedge price changes by buying on contract or thru futures, a price increase in crude will eventually increase expenses. However, airlines are still not operating at near capacity. Even now, with one major airline on strike, the rest of the industry has excessive capacity. Yet they are being hit with more demands for pay raises, at a time they are not able to raise ticket prices. Witness the several attempts over the past year to make minor price hikes, I think every single one was rescinded within days. I suspect protests from travel agents is the primary cause. And if a recession is coming, or at least a continued slowdown in economic growth, as well as the sudden wealth generated from stock mkt gains, then luxury travel will likely be further curtailed. Tom W -----Original Message----- On Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT), you wrote: :Dan, :I looked at the site Frank recommended: :http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15. I can :see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are :Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it :seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The :drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of :fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does :this all fit together? : :Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest :airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City? : :TM I'm not too aware of the realities of the oil industry, but I do know that it has tremendous power and leverage ... far more than most people can imagine. Exxon is currently at its 200 dma and 4 points under its 50 dma. Why it rose 3.3% yesterday, I don't know, however it fell from the 50 dma over the previous 5 sessions or so. The fact of the matter is that people will buy oil products in good times and bad in this country. However, as you note, they won't drill for new oil if there is oversupply, and there has been and will be for some time to come. Companies like Exxon know how to deal with price fluctuations and can make allowances for them. There's no other way to explain the steady if gradual upward slope of the 200 dma for XON. However, the airlines' stocks have consistently reacted strongly in the opposite direction of the price of oil. I agree with Frank that the recent sell-off in the transportation stocks has something more at play than the price of oil, and his assessment that the economy is contracting and holders of the stocks see the writing on the wall, seems a not unreasonable assessment. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 06 Sep 1998 12:31:06 -0400 Scott Vickery wrote: > > This gets me started very well. > > Thank you. > > Scott You're quite welcome. Another tip that's not emphasized in the user's manual: You can run scans of the industry group list (called All Worden's Industry Group Averages) to spot trends, surges, breakouts, etc. Since TC2000 gives daily volume statistics on industry groups you can also apply all of the technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastics, MACD, money flow (called by Worden Time Segmented Volume), etc. to the industry group charts. I find that looking at the industry group trends on charts is much easier and better than trying to track their rankings. Al French > >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the > >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, > >> more likely, an approximation of CASLI? > >> > > > > Scott- > > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and > >you can fine tune it to meet your needs: > > > > Chart List: All Stocks > > EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C") Value 25 - Max > > Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A") Value 25 - Max > > EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS") Rank 75 - 99 > > Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS") Rank 75 - 99 > > Sales growth rate Value 15 - Max > > Price as percent of 52 week high Value 85 - Max > > Price per share Value 15 - Max > > Price vs 200 day moving average Value 100 - Max > > Price vs 40 day moving average Value 94 - Max > > Volume surge 5 day Value 150 - Max > > > > I hope this will help you get started. > > > >Al French > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance Date: 06 Sep 1998 13:25:29 -0400 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: If we don't turn this around, it will get really nasty. You think it has already? Old money is still in there! Let's hope that all the Chearleaders the media have trotted out this past week keeps the Bulls in control. Let's fear they haven't! Best 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 2.6% 41 93 # 2 Utility-Water Supply 1.8% 4 9 # 3 Utility-Electric Power 1.3% 11 16 # 4 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver .2% 166 190 ffff,0000,0000# 5 Food-Meat Products -1.1% 141 151 # 6 Funeral Svcs & Rel -3.0 68 69 # 7 Tobacco -3.6% 129 138 # 8 Oil&Gas-US Integrated -3.6% 146 167 # 9 Finance-Public Td Inv Fd -4.0% 24 49 #10 Food-Canned -4.2% 114 110 Worst 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Retail-Discount&Variety -27.5% 102 116 #189 Auto Mfrs-Domestic -27.6 65 22 #190 Retail-Mail Order&Direct -28.3 139 85 #191 Financial Services-Misc -29.4 55 33 #192 Finance-Investment Bkrs -30.0 98 54 #193 Telecommunctns-Cellulr -31.1 10 6 #194 Retail-Consumer Elect -32.2 78 47 #195 Computer Softwr-Security -34.2 173 146 #196 Banks-Money Center -36.5 174 124 #197 Computer Softwr-Internet -47.4 3 1 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance Date: 06 Sep 1998 13:25:20 -0400 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: I've listed all the groups having a positive move this past week. There were only 21, so it wasn't too difficult or lengthy. I've changed the order in which the worst are displayed. The worst are now at the bottom of the list. From the IBD Ranking numbers, the concentrations of positive group moves by the worst performing groups and the worst performance by the highest ranking numbers, one can observe that the bottom was bought up last week and the top sold off! Long term money moving in? Bottom fishing? Pretty rag-tag fleet of new leadership! Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver 15.4% 166 190 # 2 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated 4.6% 143 169 # 3 Metal Ores-Misc 4.4% 154 172 # 4 Oil & Gas-Drilling 4.2% 197 197 # 5 Metal Ores-Non Ferrous 4.0% 127 153 # 6 Auto Mfrs-Foreign 2.9% 64 88 # 7 Mining-Gems 2.8% 195 196 # 8 Oil&Gas-US Integrated 2.1% 146 167 # 9 Food-Meat Products 1.8% 141 151 #10 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 1.8% 41 93 #11 Oil&Gas-Field Services 1.6% 186 192 #12 Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod 1.3% 177 182 #13 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod 1.1% 158 177 #14 Tobacco TOBACCO .9% 129 138 #15 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip .7% 194 188 #16 Food-Flour & Grain .6% 125 160 #17 Chemicals-Fertilizers .6% 185 185 #18 Hsehold/Office Furniture .1% 73 66 #19 Comml Svcs-Linen Supply .1% 43 51 #20 Medical-Hospitals .1% 160 158 #21 Utility-Water Supply .0% 4 9 ffff,0000,0000 Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Finance-Investment Mgmt - 9.0$ 48 27 #189 Auto Mfrs-Domestic - 9.4% 65 22 #190 Insurance-Diversified - 9.7% 93 43 #191 Financial Services-Misc -10.3% 55 33 #192 Comml Svcs-Advertising -11.6% 66 13 #193 Retail-Major Disc Chains -11.8% 38 11 #194 Transportation-Airline -12.6% 162 109 #195 Telecommunctns-Cellulr -12.8% 10 6 #196 Banks-Money Center -13.7% 174 124 #197 Computer Softwr-Internet -14.7% 3 1 FWIW, Frank Wolynski Arial - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 06 Sep 1998 19:47:12 -0400 Al, Thanks for another tip. That was one of the selling points for tc200 for me. One question I have though, is how closely do the groups within tc2000 match the groups as reported in IBD? Another observation that you may be able to commenty on: The groups seem to be fairly sparsely populated. For example, Computer - Software (an area I am familiar with) is very sparse. Thank, Scott At 12:31 PM 9/6/98 -0400, you wrote: >Scott Vickery wrote: >> >> This gets me started very well. >> >> Thank you. >> >> Scott > >You're quite welcome. > >Another tip that's not emphasized in the user's manual: You can run >scans of the industry group list (called All Worden's Industry Group >Averages) to spot trends, surges, breakouts, etc. Since TC2000 gives >daily volume statistics on industry groups you can also apply all of the >technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastics, MACD, money >flow (called by Worden Time Segmented Volume), etc. to the industry >group charts. > >I find that looking at the industry group trends on charts is much >easier and better than trying to track their rankings. > >Al French > >> >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the >> >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, >> >> more likely, an approximation of CASLI? >> >> >> > >> > Scott- >> > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and >> >you can fine tune it to meet your needs: >> > >> > Chart List: All Stocks >> > EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C") Value 25 - Max >> > Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A") Value 25 - Max >> > EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS") Rank 75 - 99 >> > Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS") Rank 75 - 99 >> > Sales growth rate Value 15 - Max >> > Price as percent of 52 week high Value 85 - Max >> > Price per share Value 15 - Max >> > Price vs 200 day moving average Value 100 - Max >> > Price vs 40 day moving average Value 94 - Max >> > Volume surge 5 day Value 150 - Max >> > >> > I hope this will help you get started. >> > >> >Al French >> > >> >- >> > >> > >> >> - > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] Banks Date: 07 Sep 1998 18:47:57 +1200 Investors and analysts all suspect that Brazil will be the next country to devalue its currency in an unstable world! Major U.S. banks with overseas exposure have been consistently hammered for several weeks now. Columbia's currency devaluation last week threw a new spin (downward) for the whole group. Now several banks are sliding to the sound of a Latin American beat as bankers hold their breath with Brazil on the verge of a devaluation of their own. One currency analyst even proposed a 60% chance that Brazil would devalue within the next 30 days. Moody's didn't help the situation by putting 11 Brazilian banks on review for possible downgrade. If Brazil does devalue, it is likely to set off a domino affect with Venezuela and Ecuador following soon after. Friday, CIBC Oppenheimer cut EPS estimates for this year and next year's earnings on all the banks listed below. CMB - Chase Manhattan Bank $45.38 (-11.13) Currently, CMB has about 16% of their equity tied up in Brazil. CMB has forecast a 29% cut in earnings for 1998 due to overseas exposure. CCI - Citicorp $92.50 (-24.62) The mind-numbing descent continues as CCI hits new 52 week lows (after being at $180 seven weeks ago). Friday, CCI traded as low as $89.13 (down -9.37). According to one source, CCI has a total of 10% of its equity in Brazil. Another source stated that at the end of the last 2Q, CCI's exposure to Latin America was $15.5 bln. Not a pretty picture, when you figure that CCI is unable to protect its stock due to its current merger status with Travelers. CCI has forecast a 27% cut in earnings for 1998 due to overseas exposure. JPM - J.P. Morgan $86.94 (-10.81) Plunging to a new 52 week low, JPM's outlook was slashed by Oppenheimer with a downgrade from a "strong buy" to a "hold". The real wound here is actually JPM's exposure to Brazil. Currently 34% of its equity is in Brazil. JPM has forecast a 51% cut in earnings for 1998 due to overseas exposure. JPM derived 10% of their income from Latin America last year. JPM has been a rumored takeover target off and on for months now. BT - Banker's Trust $67.06 (-12.31) BT actually closed positive on Friday (.56) when investors found out that its total exposure to Latin America was less than 2% of assets. -Oppenheimer cut Travelers/Citicorp earnings estimates on Friday based on continuing woes in Russia. Latin America is emerging as an additional potential source of losses. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Banks Date: 07 Sep 1998 09:47:52 -0400 There are rumors that Travelers may either call off or restructure its proposed merger with Citicorp due to CCI's Brazilian exposure. It appears that TRV's price plummet is due solely to this one factor, tho I suspect its investments may also be a major factor. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Investors and analysts all suspect that Brazil will be the next country >to devalue its currency in an unstable world! >Major U.S. banks with overseas exposure have been consistently >hammered for several weeks now >CCI - Citicorp $92.50 (-24.62) > >The mind-numbing descent continues as CCI hits new >52 week lows (after being at $180 seven weeks ago). >Friday, CCI traded as low as $89.13 (down -9.37). >According to one source, CCI has a total of 10% of >its equity in Brazil. Another source stated that >at the end of the last 2Q, CCI's exposure to Latin >America was $15.5 bln. Not a pretty picture, when you >figure that CCI is unable to protect its stock due >to its current merger status with Travelers. CCI has >forecast a 27% cut in earnings for 1998 due to >overseas exposure. > >-Oppenheimer cut Travelers/Citicorp earnings >estimates on Friday based on continuing woes in >Russia. Latin America is emerging as an additional >potential source of losses. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday Date: 07 Sep 1998 17:01:35 GMT I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I don't remember ever seeing: http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html World markets on monday surging almost everywhere: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday Date: 07 Sep 1998 14:29:52 EDT In a message dated 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time, musicant@autobahn.org writes: << Subj: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday Date: 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@xmission.com I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I don't remember ever seeing: http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html World markets on monday surging almost everywhere: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Dan musicant@autobahn.org - >> Dan: I am sure you are not shorting too many! 5-15% (record gains) tuesday!!! at least at the open. Surindra - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Richard Korman Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #378 Date: 07 Sep 1998 04:51:06 -0400 I am a Macintosh owner and don''t know of any scanning software available for Mac's. I use http://www.iqc.com/scan/default.asp to do my stock scans. Any help you could give me as to the criteria I should input would be very helpful. Richard Korman - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM Date: 07 Sep 1998 20:45:51 -0400 Scott Vickery wrote: > > Al, > Thanks for another tip. That was one of the selling points for tc200 > for me. > > One question I have though, is how closely do the groups within tc2000 > match the groups as reported in IBD? > There are about 100 Worden groups (the Media General groups can't be charted) vs. 197 in IBD. Thus, the Worden groups are more general. It would be nice if IBD, Dow Jones, Zack's, Media General, Worden's, and others would agree on a standard of industry groupings but that will probably never happen. > Another observation that you may be able to commenty on: The groups > seem to be fairly sparsely populated. For example, Computer - > Software (an area I am familiar with) is very sparse. > The group lists are representative samples, not an exhaustive list of stocks within each group. I think they also only include large- and mid-cap stocks in their sample. Al French - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Tuesday's market Date: 07 Sep 1998 21:14:15 -0400 Another massive move up in the Japanese mkt. Gained over 5% yesterday, opened up 100 pts tonight and now up nearly 500 pts for another 3.28%. Guess the Japanese investors like the "go slow" policy of their govt. Nonetheless, rest of Asia is following, and suggests a good day for Europe and the USA on Tuesday. Futures are also strong and gaining, now up well over 2%. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ValueJet Date: 07 Sep 1998 22:28:21 EDT Dan ref: Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest :airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City? Yes, it is. ValuJet and Airtran Merged into one and they kept the Airtran Name. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday Date: 08 Sep 1998 04:06:29 GMT On Mon, 7 Sep 1998 14:29:52 EDT, you wrote: :In a message dated 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time, :musicant@autobahn.org writes: : :<< Subj: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday : Date: 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time : From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) : Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com : Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com : To: canslim@xmission.com :=20 : I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I : don't remember ever seeing: :=20 : http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html :=20 : World markets on monday surging almost everywhere: :=20 : http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u :=20 : Dan : musicant@autobahn.org :=20 : - : >> :Dan: : :I am sure you are not shorting too many! : :5-15% (record gains) tuesday!!! at least at the open. : :Surindra Surindra,=20 Actually I do have only one position: a large short position on CLX, and am concerned about how I'm going to get out of it gracefully (with minimal losses). Oh, well. I don't have a good sense of timing lately. Too busy to pay enough attention. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs Date: 08 Sep 1998 07:55:05 -0400 None has esp good charts, except for the utilities All but MATW have at least 20% earnings growth forecasted. BEI charts suggests it also is under a buyout, haven't researched it CSC has 155 mil shares out UFS has a possible cup and handle Of the utilities, (MDU, PSC, ARTNA) the latter has the best yield (4.7%) PSC is quite extended By definition (since all have RS and EPS of at least 80), they all have at least some CS characteristics Tom W -----Original Message----- > >>MDU, CSC, WATR, PSC, UFS, BEI, ARTNA, USCS (forget it, a takeover >>already in place), and MATW. Haven't looked at the charts yet to see >>if any worth watching. > >Tom, have you had a chance to check any of the charts out for your >abovementioned list? Any CANSLI candidates? > >David > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Date: 08 Sep 1998 20:04:59 +0200 The best CANSLIM picks from my watch list are not going to wait for me alas... :-) TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8) Bye, bye... (No, that is NOT Buy, buy... We have not had a follow-through day yet and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my (still) bearish attitude. ;^) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 21:15:54 +0200 The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group requirement out, for now. :) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 12:52:29 -0700 I was thinking of ADAC, but the base is a little short. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 12:16 PM The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group requirement out, for now. :) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 15:56:29 -0400 >The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. > >I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >requirement out, for now. :) Hi Johan, Can't find many. Looked for bases yesterday and found few that looked like much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that also were on my watch list. A couple were breakouts. A few with ugly charts are low level breakouts (good volume, near a new high). I found quite a few stocks that had failed breakouts due to market action and then pulled back out of the base last week. They are up nicely today on a secondary breakout. Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite there yet. Weird market. As you say, definitely a followthrough in my book. And somehow I trust this one more than the last (failed) one (esp. since we have had a climactic looking bottom put in and a monster bounce the next day). Now we just need to figure out who the leaders will be. I expect a choppy market with some workable breakouts mixed with some failures (OPINION only - worth what you paid for it). Best regards, Craig tsfw neon lgto nspr cbiz spri emc qlgc mnmd payx sut adac avei dt csc jnj lgto - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:22:46 -0700 On 12:56 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said: > >>The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. >> >>I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >>have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >>requirement out, for now. :) > >lgto Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 16:40:19 -0400 Tim, >>lgto Friday >from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I >missed? You must be thinking of a different stock. LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up 7 7/8, per Yahoo. I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the pivot at about 47. >You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is closest to >it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though. Yep, it is on my list too. I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a pivot at 38. It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the base again. Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at least another month - WRONG). Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week base, too short to play with IMO. Just barely a new high though, maybe it will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I might go for it. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Speaking of Leaders Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:52:40 -0700 (PDT) The volume leaders on the Naz today were DELL INTC CCMC CSCO MSFT WCOM ASND COMS ORCL TLAB In other words, the usual. The only stock on the price % gainers list above $7 was SERO. On the NYSE, the volume leaders were TRV CPQ CMB LU CCI GE TBR DIS CD AOL So, networks, telecom, computers, software, internet, financials--the usual. If the "leadership" hasn't changed (i.e., the Nifty 20), finding proper bases won't be easy. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:56:04 -0700 Brain fart - thinking LGTO and looking at LBOR! LGTO got bounced from my watch list. P.S. Anyone notice how the big boys opened everything up something like 15% and then most of them fell to close up from Friday but down from the open? Is that a tactic to catch market orders placed over the weekend? Not that I would have placed any before today, but if I did place an order on something like DELL only to lose a couple percent on a day like this, I'd be really steamed. On 01:40 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said: >Tim, > >>>lgto >Friday >>from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I >>missed? > >You must be thinking of a different stock. LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up >7 7/8, per Yahoo. I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the >pivot at about 47. > >>You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is >closest to >>it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though. > >Yep, it is on my list too. I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a >pivot at 38. It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back >out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the >base again. Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it >fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at >least another month - WRONG). Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week >base, too short to play with IMO. Just barely a new high though, maybe it >will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I >might go for it. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: [CANSLIM] Followthrough Date: 08 Sep 1998 18:18:54 -0700 (PDT) NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of 800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the previous day to qualify as a valid follow through. > > The best CANSLIM picks from my watch list are not going to wait for me > alas... :-) > > TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently > > METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8) > > Bye, bye... (No, that is NOT Buy, buy... We have not had a follow-through > day yet and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I > expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my > (still) bearish attitude. ;^) > > > > > > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough Date: 08 Sep 1998 21:45:04 -0400 At 06:18 PM 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote: > NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of >800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the previous day to qualify as a valid follow through. Friday's volume was 626,724,000 on the NASDAQ per both QP2 and Yahoo. You can go here http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.O&d=t and look at the Prev Cls field. BTW, the up/down volume was 10 to 1 on the NYSE and 7 to 1 on the NASDAQ. Both rather extreme (bullish) figures. See http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u for details. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:25:58 -0400 I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds. This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt, and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while, gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by a qtr percent. I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to back up a brain fart idea. HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap, stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia?? Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, decided not to meet after all. In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] WatchList Candidates Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:57:59 -0400 In these turbulent times, (I totally missed todays action!) I find the following charts very interesting. Both groups are in ranking positions I am particularly fond of! :-) None of these are to be considered recommendations to buy. I am just openingly sharing a few on my watch list with not too bad technical charts considering the market. Group = Computer Services #26 (Ticker - EPS/RS - Acc/Dist - Float Mil.) CSGS - 64/93 - B - 22 (a bit loose, but MF is very tight and setting NH's) METG - 70/98 - B - 7.9 (NH, 7-8 week base, great chart action, gotta love it!) TIER - 98/96 - B - 5.5 (Flat base has held above 200day MOV) NEON - 76/99 - B - 6.5 (NH, bit wild, but advancing on advancing on Vol) TSFW - 98/99 - B - 5.2 (NH, Strong volume breakout, above 50 & 200day MOV) Group = Computer Optical Recognition #45 SBL - 94/98 - B - ?? (Near NH, price action/MF strong, above 50&200day MOV.) NLCS - 87/96 - B - 27 (4/8 from a NH, nice & tight above 200day, ) (around the 50day & MF advancing, volume picking up) (recently!) FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:58:53 -0400 Johan, While I haven't shook off my bearish sentiments, will share the few on my watch list that look more promising. Would agree that it's very difficult to find any with a decent base, whether you measure it from the bottom of the cliff or the top of the mountain. Mostly I respect the resiliency shown by these: DAKT, HWLD, MCSC (no, despite the name, it's not a local co, based in Dayton, Ohio); PVCC (for the speculators only, low priced and thinly traded, but basing); TSFW (tho now way too extended); CBIZ (kicking myself on this after today). Disclosure: don't own a share of any of them, but likely will once I figure out how to dig myself out of the hole I put myself into. Please note: am posting this list despite my continued bearish sentiments, and grave distrust of today as a "follow thru" day. Tom W -----Original Message----- >The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. > >I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >requirement out, for now. :) > > > >Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:00:59 -0400 Nice shopping list for watching, Craig. Tom W -----Original Message----- > >Can't find many. Looked for bases yesterday and found few that looked like >much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that also were >on my watch list. A couple were breakouts. A few with ugly charts are low >level breakouts (good volume, near a new high >Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite there >Best regards, >Craig > >tsfw >neon >lgto >nspr >cbiz >spri >emc >qlgc >mnmd >payx >sut >adac >avei >dt >csc >jnj >lgto > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:18:50 -0400 At 22:25 9/8/98 -0400, you wrote: > Massive recovery in Latin America as oil >prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another >hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the >three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, >decided not to meet after all. > > >Tom W > Where most of the European and Asian currencies have rallied the past week, the Mexican peso and I believe other Latin currencies have been woefully absent from the rally! (See IBD futures charts.) I'm interpreting this as a precursor of events yet unfolded, but perhaps feared. Treasuries were notably absent from the rally also! But I heard that explained away as they were already discounting the reduction in rate possibility. If that is true, then I suppose as fast as it began, it is over! Mission accomplished! (Unload treasuries and the dollar at good prices, buy domestic stocks! Thanks Mr. Greenspan and America, that was a much needed boost in liquidity!) I dunno, I'm still learning. Just food for thought. Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:07:06 -0400 World markets, thumbnails, updated every 60 seconds while the markets are open. Pretty neat site for those interested in the world markets. http://wwfn.com/sample/oscharts.html Enjoy, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated earnings Date: 08 Sep 1998 19:58:25 -0700 (PDT) Craig, you asked for " estimated earnings thing" Try this: http://quote.fool.com/estimates/estimates.asp?symbols=CAT TM ---Craig Griffin wrote: > > Can't help you directly on the estimated earnings thing, though I am sure > it is out there. However ... > > For someone who uses a similar model to value the market - take a look here > ===> > http://www.magma.ca/~davef/ (Dave's Investment World). > > He does a very nice job with historical valuations. As you say, not > Canslim directly - but interesting to know and potentially useful for > thinking about things. One of my favorite sites. > > > At 01:26 PM 9/2/98 -0700, you wrote: > >Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated > >earnings for the S&P500? I am interested in using the difference > >between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on > >Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M). > >Thanks, > >rolatzi > > > > > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ > >DO YOU YAHOO!? > >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > > >- > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:34:47 -0400 The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the last 5 trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day weekend). ---Dave Steckler - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:52:11 -0400 Wednesday, September 9, 1998 PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST World closer to recession as Japanese economy slated By RUSSELL SKELTON in Tokyo The global economy moved a step closer to recession yesterday after the release of a deeply pessimistic report by Japan's Economic Planning Agency (EPA), warning that the world's second-biggest economy was now "lost at the bottom" of the worst downturn in 50 years. In an uncharacteristically frank report, the planning agency said the Japanese economy was in a "prolonged slump" and the outlook was "extremely severe", especially for the global economy, which was on the "threshold of a very difficult phase". "The instability of the financial markets, combined with worsening housing starts, brought about the downward assessment in September," an EPA official said. The one bright spot was in exports that had managed to remain stable despite the collapse of Asian markets. The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually dismisses any prospect of a return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks continued to strengthen on investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South America. The Nikkei index closed at 14,913.49, a rise of 123.43 points or 0.83 per cent on the previous day's close. At one stage the Nikkei jumped 500 points to break the 15,000-point barrier for the first time in several weeks. But the rally was shortlived as investors grabbed profits. Dealers said later the rebound in the market could not be sustained because "Japan's fundamentals aren't very good". At noon the yen was also showing signs of weakening, sliding from 131.33 to the US dollar to 132.43 in a few hours. There are no signs that the gridlock over financial reform bills in the Diet, Japan's Parliament, are any closer to being resolved. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan continued to block funds to bail out the failed Long Term Credit Bank of Japan (LTCB). Worried that the collapse of the bank may lead to a "systemic" banking collapse, the Obuchi Government is working on plans to make a one-off injection of funds to save the bank. The Government believes the LTCB crisis is so great it cannot afford to wait for its new banking reform legislation to be passed by the Diet in several months. While the plight of Japan's debt-encumbered banking sector is well known, there are widespread fears that the collapse of the LTCB could bring down much of Japan's financial system. The EPA assessment found that recovery in Japan's economy may come from the Obuchi Government's second 10 trillion-yen supplementary Budget and promised tax cuts worth about 6 trillion yen. But these moves are a long way off and yet to be approved by the Diet. The EPA said in its September report the economy was being dragged down by a slump in personal spending, falling incomes and a massive contraction in the housing industry. Housing starts are down 11 per cent on last year. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:55:21 -0400 (Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) Frank --------------------------- In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest one day point gain ever. The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:51:01 -0500 Thanks Frank thats an interesting site, checking it out now... sure will come in handy.. don't know a thing joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:45:33 -0700 Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter 7, WON says "Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800 area) and accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the tenth day indicate weakness." -----Original Message----- Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the last 5 trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day weekend). ---Dave Steckler - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:47:45 -0700 How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out until around midnight. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 7:26 PM I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds. This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt, and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while, gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by a qtr percent. I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to back up a brain fart idea. HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap, stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia?? Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, decided not to meet after all. In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years. Tom W - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 20:35:23 +1200 I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive. The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief rally given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic levels. As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio registered .72 Friday. This was the highest mark since the level posted in October 1990 (.66). The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week. This extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash. In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support and resistance points. Often times, sector indexes reveal the market's natural rotation. We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest before the recent correction. Specifically keep an eye on Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next rally based upon their relative strength. Not surprisingly, these sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday. Internet 9.7% Retail 7.4% Hardware 6.2% Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average: Reversal Near-Term Re-Entry Sector Signal Support Point ************************************************************** Drug DRG Tweezer Bottom 610 640 * Healthcare HCX Tweezer Bottom 600 635 * Hardware XCI Tweezer Bottom 505 540 * Internet INX Tweezer Bottom 145 165 * Retail RLX Tweezer Bottom 630 665 * As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from overseas and EPS comes in. -----Original Message----- >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) >Frank >--------------------------- >In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, >frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. > >The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at >the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at >the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. > >On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest >one day point gain ever. > >The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 >points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed >the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. > >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? Date: 09 Sep 1998 06:48:44 -0400 I am not proposing the volume be greater than the first day. This message was from the AOL canslim forum and represents the authors interpretation of the 1%, up volume follow through. I thought it an interesting variation of a subject that has had much discussion here and it could provide some additional insight. (Especially the treatment of Friday). I too found the declining volume going into Friday to be sufficiently heavy enough to warrant skepticism of yesterdays follow through. The prior three days volume seemed heavy enough that it would take a really convincing number of advancing shares to increase the odds that yesterday was one of the 80% reliable days. I had intended to get the authors permission to post his interpretation, but I queued the clip up incorrectly and the unedited version inadvertently went out when I connected my mail program. My apologies to the group and to the author. Frank Wolynski At 22:45 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote: >Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter >7, WON says > >"Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms > >At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second >confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow >Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first >indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones >up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800 area) and >accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually >be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This >is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the >tenth day indicate weakness." > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski [SMTP:Wolynski@MindSpring.Com] >Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? > >The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. >Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks >about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in >this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted >rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today >to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the >last 5 >trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day >weekend). > >---Dave Steckler > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook Date: 09 Sep 1998 06:58:06 -0400 And likely due this report and the drop in the Japanese mkt last night, the yen is even weaker against the dollar, now trading over 136 vs 131. Tom W -----Original Message----- > >Wednesday, September 9, 1998 > >PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST > >The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually dismisses >any prospect of a >return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks continued >to strengthen on >investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South America. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:04:28 -0400 Looks like you're right, went back and took another look at the chart this morning, and does now appear vol on Tuesday beat Friday's (pre holiday) volume. Tho the chart showed Tuesday's date and closing price, the volume apparently had not yet been updated. Tom W -----Original Message----- >How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out until around midnight. > >Mike > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 04:48:53 -0700 (PDT) Dean, Thank you for the post. It clarifies what I've been studying. "And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger" I read some of John Murphy's Visual Investor this weekend. He talks about interest sensitive stocks, groups. For interest issues Financials, REITs, Banks should all be affected deeply; they have the most immediate gain from falling interest rates. So "until they buy the banks", the interest rumor is just that. TM ---Dean Edwards wrote: > > I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market > gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive. > > The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief > rally > given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic > levels. > > As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity > put/call ratio registered .72 Friday. This was the highest mark > since the level posted in October 1990 (.66). The CBOE Market > Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week. This > extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash. > > In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track > relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You > should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support > and resistance points. Often times, sector indexes reveal the > market's natural rotation. > > We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest > before the recent correction. Specifically keep an eye on > Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next > rally based upon their relative strength. Not surprisingly, these > sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday. > > Internet 9.7% > Retail 7.4% > Hardware 6.2% > > Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average: > > Reversal Near-Term Re-Entry > Sector Signal Support Point > ************************************************************** > Drug DRG Tweezer Bottom 610 640 * > Healthcare HCX Tweezer Bottom 600 635 * > > Hardware XCI Tweezer Bottom 505 540 * > Internet INX Tweezer Bottom 145 165 * > Retail RLX Tweezer Bottom 630 665 * > > As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot > higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs > lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am > dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger > zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS > warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold > the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from > overseas and EPS comes in. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Frank V. Wolynski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 > > > >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) > >Frank > >--------------------------- > >In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, > >frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. > > > >The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at > >the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at > >the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. > > > >On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest > >one day point gain ever. > > > >The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 > >points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed > >the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. > > > >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record > >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the > >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. > > > >- > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Oversold Oscillator Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:45:14 -0400 Thought I'd mention that even after yesterday's heavy imbalance favoring up vol over down vol, the Oversold Oscillator at DGO for Nasdaq is still pegged out at -899. On NYSE however, it came off the stops and now is at -632. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:05:11 -0400 Dean, Thanks for sharing your newsletter with us and your thoughts. As usual, excellent post. I agree with most others posting here in the last 24 hour in their sentiment, the market doesn't really "seem" like it has had a follow-through: no good leadership groups, no great looking bases, few breakouts on the follow-through day, weak volume on Friday to compare against, way oversold so we were due a big bounce, VIX way too high for Canslim investing to be recommended, etc. It is a very tricky market (first bear I have seen when I knew how to notice). This may be another of the 20% of the follow-throughs that fail. Unfortunately to clearly signal its failure the NASDAQ must drop over 10% from here (below 1500). This would be extremely painful if one re-enters stocks at this point. Unlike a normal follow-through, where I am inclined to dive in because I know the water is warm (get 100% invested quickly) ... at this point I am only dipping a toe in the water, maybe two. Unfortunately, O'Neil says that often the inclination is not to believe the follow-through because at that point things look so bleak. So could be the 80% after all. :^0. Yahhhhh ... Well, for the market to get much of my money back, it will have to show some lowered volatility and some decent bases and some breakouts and some leadership and better internals (new high/low, advance/decline line improvement, etc.). Until then I am extremely tentative. Just some thoughts - not "pure" Canslim. Or at least more complex than normal. Best regards, Craig At 08:35 PM 9/9/98 +1200, you wrote: >I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market >gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive. > >The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief >rally >given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic >levels. > >As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity >put/call ratio registered .72 Friday. This was the highest mark >since the level posted in October 1990 (.66). The CBOE Market >Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week. This >extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash. > >In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track >relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You >should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support >and resistance points. Often times, sector indexes reveal the >market's natural rotation. > >We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest >before the recent correction. Specifically keep an eye on >Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next >rally based upon their relative strength. Not surprisingly, these >sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday. > > Internet 9.7% > Retail 7.4% > Hardware 6.2% > >Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average: > > Reversal Near-Term Re-Entry >Sector Signal Support Point >************************************************************** >Drug DRG Tweezer Bottom 610 640 * >Healthcare HCX Tweezer Bottom 600 635 * > >Hardware XCI Tweezer Bottom 505 540 * >Internet INX Tweezer Bottom 145 165 * >Retail RLX Tweezer Bottom 630 665 * > >As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot >higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs >lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am >dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger >zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS >warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold >the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from >overseas and EPS comes in. > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 > > >>(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) >>Frank >>--------------------------- >>In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, >>frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. >> >>The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at >>the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at >>the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. >> >>On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest >>one day point gain ever. >> >>The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 >>points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed >>the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. >> >>The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record >>gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the >>times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. >> >>- >> > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Harlan Subject: [CANSLIM] The new Bull Market is here!!!!!! YA RIGHT!!!!!! Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:18:36 -0700 Yes ladies and gentlemen its a brand new bull market with only one thing thats significantly different from the last one we just went through. Its in the opposite direction! Its all on the SHORT SIDE. The following are a list of names that have either topped or are in a correctional phase. After each name will be a little blurp about it. As for stops those technically oriented use either the moving average mentioned (50,200) as your guide, areas of overhead supply, or resistance levels. For the sake of this post and simplicity we'll use a straight 10% stop. Keep in mind this is just a sampling. OTC stocks AMZN- 100ish is resistance, closed at 92.25, short on any strength ASND-use the 50day as a guide/ overhead supply starts hanging around at 45ish, closed at 45.125 CSCO- use the 50day as your guide 96.25ish, closed at 94.625 COLTY- screamer over last yr!,overhead supply starts at 41ish,50day at 44.875. Closed at 40.25 COST -Bumping head against downtrend line and a tad bit o overhead supply too. closed at 55.375 FILE- resistance is at 22ish closed at 18.25 HBOC- 200 day ave at 28ish, closed at 26.50 INTU- 200 day at 48ish, closed at 44.3125 LAMR- 200 day at 33, closed at 30.375 MSPG- 50 day at 38ish, closed at 35.125 SAPE- 200 day at 42.00, massive overhead supply starts at 40ish, closed at 36.5 and is having trouble moving up. TAGS- 50day at 22, overhead supply starts around the same level,closed at 19.8125 VISX- massive overhead supply around the 59 level, closed at 56.375, prime candidate. YHOO- not for the timid, 50day at 90ish,closed at 84.625 and entering an area of overhead supply NYSE stocks AEH- hasnt broken the 50day yet,but the moment it does on a closing basis watch out. closed at 30.68 AOL- resistance at 105ish, decent overhead supply starts around the 100 mark. Closed at 95.25 BMY- 50day at 113ish, closed at 108.25 GPS- In initial snapback mode yesterday, 50day at 61.40, any weakness and it Could doesnt mean it will fall back down to the sub 50 level, closed at 61.00 GE- use 200 day as your guide (82.125) closed at 81.875, my personal fav. HNZ- 55 is resistance, 50day is 54.625ish, not a screamer. LXK- they're printers are give aways with puter packages these days, basically junk. use 50day as guide (66.40) closed at 59.75, I'd leave alone unless it rallys. UMG- use 50 day as guide, screamed yesterday on mediorce vol. any move back below the 50day ave (46.625) and I'd consider it. Closed at47.31 PFE- massive overhead supply starts at anything over 100, 50 day at 108ish, closed at 100.6875 =========================== thats all I've got time for now but theres a lot more. PS Time to buy the Big banks,Brokerages? NOT Time to buy the Oils? NOT Sucker rally? most likely Retest of the lows on the S&P 500 (940ish) with an undercut? very strong possibility. If your not able to go short, keep your head down, and cash is king. If anyone is looking for a good example of what can happen to these Big sense of security houshold names that HAVE BEEN this big pictures asset class leadership just look at a chart of TOYS R US (TOY) with a 50day ave and a 200 day ave loaded. Notice what happens when the stock went below the 200 day moving ave? It tends to stay below it and trad off of it doesnt it? Has anyone seen the "I've fallen and cant get up" doll? Just calling it as I see it, use your own judgement,trade at your own risks, strictly for informational purposes. Any comments email me direct. Harlan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:21:06 -0400 Frank, Thanks for sharing the post from AOL. Excellent food for thought! The gyrations indeed make me uncomfortable - now even more so - see my related post to Dean. It is hard to step back into a market that has been down 18% (!) in a 4 day span (!!) starting on 8/26. Then it goes back up more than 10% in the next 5 days beginning 9/01. That is the entire market! If an individual stock was acting like that, I doubt I would touch it. For an individual stock this is often the type of action you get before it breaks down for good. Now that this occurs to me, I am even happier to have mostly stayed away from yesterday's rally (although I fully expect continued upside today). And as always, I expect to be WRONG. Best regards, Craig BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an O'Neil statement? I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable (nothing works every time in the market). Did someone hear him say it personally or is it written down somewhere? At 12:55 AM 9/9/98 -0400, you wrote: >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) >Frank >--------------------------- >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:25:18 -0400 (EDT) Craig, >BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an >O'Neil statement? I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable >(nothing works every time in the market). Did someone hear him say it >personally or is it written down somewhere? If my memory serves me right, it is in the two articles that WON recently wrote for IBD on identifying market tops and bottoms. I will try to dig further and report. Regards, Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 13:55:53 GMT On Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:55:21 -0400, you wrote: : : :The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that = record :gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the :times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. : =46rank, "...imperative to go home flat every night..." Huh? Whatcha talkin' about? Do you mean "on the sidelines"? ...sober? ...unhyped? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Where did 80% success rate come from Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:17:40 -0400 Craig, >BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an >O'Neil statement? I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable >nothing works every time in the market). Did someone hear him say it >personally or is it written down somewhere? I beleive in Aug 14 IBD investors corner O'neil stated this rate. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:28:29 -0400 A couple of people have already alluded to it, but comparing Tuesday's volume with Friday's volume is very unreliable since it was the start of a 3 day weekend. In my admittedly inexperienced opinion, this was another contrary Tuesday, trying to sucker us back. The realities of the global meltdown won't change until the Fed actually changes the rate or Japan institutes true reforms. And even then the transition from bear to bull isn't going to be instantaneous. I'd also like to point out that we're in September, not a month typically known for recoveries. Joe Jungbluth - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Classic cup/w handle Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:35:31 -0400 I was looking at the chart of the company for which I work, Orbital Sciences Corp (NYSE: ORB). On a daily chart, look at 12/31 and 4/15. Those look like textbook inflection points to me. I had sold some of my company stock in mid-April on a gut feel, but I wish I had noticed the exhaustion gap and gone short. BTW, this stock probably wasn't a true CANSLIM candidate due to EPS. Waddaya think? Joe Jungbluth ps. The company was listed on the NASDAQ before April as ORBI. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 11:33:39 -0400 At 01:55 PM 9/9/98 GMT, you wrote: >Frank, > >"...imperative to go home flat every night..." > >Huh? Whatcha talkin' about? Do you mean "on the sidelines"? ...sober? >...unhyped? > >Dan >musicant@autobahn.org > That was one of the lines that I intended to 'Edit' prior to sending, but my bumbling with my Email sent it unedited! Flat means, clear of any positions. Not short or long. Or if so, then in the box. As many short as long. A trading technique that is not Canslim, thereby the reason I was going to edit it. Besides, way outta my league here with those types of techniques. I believe the intention is to take advantage of a breaking move by clearing the opposing trade. I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD Date: 09 Sep 1998 12:15:23 EDT Canslim Group: This article from IBD this morning should prove useful-from this group's perspective. To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan take note). And now here is the article: The stock market on Tuesday erased most of last week's losses as the Dow scored its largest one-day point gain on record. The advance also produced a ''follow-through'' session, a key technical sign that a longer-term rally could be under way. But cautionary signs abound. Most leading stocks - the top 5%-10% in terms of 52-week price performance -still appear to be in the midst of their corrections. And the number of stocks making new lows on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market dwarfed the level of new highs. I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R Tuesday's gains followed Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks late Friday that some took to indicate the nation's central bank might be prepared to ease interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average rose almost 5% on a 4% increase in trading volume, confirming the 288-point rebound on Sept. 1. The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 index turned in their own follow-through days as well. A follow- through suggests that a new uptrend has staying power. It comes in two parts. First, the market rallies off a low. Within four to 10 days of the rebound, a major average such as the Dow makes a gain of 1% or more on an increase in trading activity over the prior day. The signal hasn't missed the beginning of a major bull move in decades. But it occasionally flags a rally that later fails. Such a failure occurred recently. The Dow rebounded on Aug. 11 from an intraday low of 8316, closing at 8462. On Aug. 18, the blue-chip index gained 139 points, or 1.6%, on an increase in daily trade. The rally failed a few days later, sending the Dow to a near-term low the following week. Indeed, a follow-through day does not mean investors can step into the market and buy stocks indiscriminately. Most leading stocks are still retracing the ground lost during the current downturn. Few have broken out to new highs. Market professionals took Tuesday's action as a good sign, but many see rough waters ahead in the near term. There's a dearth of undamaged leaders in today's market, notes Greg Kuhn, president of Kamco Capital Management LLC, an Easton, Pa.-based money manager and institutional advisory firm. Kuhn was among the early spotters of the July 20 market top, advising clients to pare down sharply on July 21 and warning of a sharp decline in the averages on July 27. ''The market has got to go through a period of convalescence,'' Kuhn said. ''It will need to take at least eight weeks of backing and filling. The leaders still need to build bases. There are times where you have follow- through days where you could start buying stocks right away. We don't have that yet. You want to take your time here and let stocks come to you. Now you should start looking for the next set of leaders.'' Richard McCabe, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch, believes the market remains in a ''cyclical bear within an ongoing secular, long-term bull trend'' that should resume in early '99. He notes there was strong breadth Tuesday in the number of rising vs. declining stocks. ''The good thing about today is the advance-decline ratio is about 4- to-1,'' McCabe said. ''That's not historic or spectacular. But when I see a rally of 3-to-1 or higher, it usually means the rally has some meaning. The past rallies -Tuesday and Wednesday (last week) -had only 3-to-2 ratios. Nothing great. ''Today's action says the market has broken this recent downtrend off the July high. We should get some kind of recovery trend that might get to the mid-8000s. At that point, I would be a seller because I think there will be further downside tests as we get out into the later part of the year.'' Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, sees the market heading to new highs next year, thanks to a strong economy that many observers have underestimated. But the market still faces ample economic and psychological hurdles that could mean choppy sailing in the months ahead. ''The market was ready for a bottom,'' Canelo said. ''Every technical indicator we follow - put/call ratio, ticks, option volatility, block discounts - looked as oversold as October of last year, which proved to be a bottom. On a valuation basis, the market went from 18% overvalued to 12% undervalued as of Friday.'' But while the current downtrend has allowed the market to chew down prices, the correction still needs time, Canelo says. ''All the global factors that worry the market are still there. Japan is still in denial. Russia is in free fall. That translates into risks for Mexico and Latin America.'' And of course, President Clinton has yet to face Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr's report. ''Democrats are turning away from the president,'' Canelo said. ''They're afraid they're going to lose seats in the House and Senate. So the president has very little party structure supporting him. It certainly scares foreign investors when they hear words like impeachment and resignation. So I think the Clinton chronicles are a real issue.'' //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (09/09/98) Market's Turnaround May Have Some Staying Power By Loren Fleckenstein 09/08/98 20:30 jans - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 20:26:02 +0200 >I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping >your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the >stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short >you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock. I'd bet that it was a stock broker who invented this 'trading' technique. LOL! Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD Date: 09 Sep 1998 21:19:35 +0200 >To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow >doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use >caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan >take note). Jans, Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article. I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish. Reason's to be careful/bearish: - We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart. - We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, SP500). - And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that is a resonable amount of time now. - There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases. - It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks) and steep (more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight to new highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much more likely. - On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of new lows also remains high. - Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO we also need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have had the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean out the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows would be even better. Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for the unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you focus on what is happening right before your eyes. As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something like that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging). Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more likely it is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding. If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month bear market. B^) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Date: 09 Sep 1998 15:47:24 -0400 Johan Van Houtven wrote: > >I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping > >your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the > >stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short > >you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock. > > I'd bet that it was a stock broker who invented this 'trading' technique. > > LOL! > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. For plays like this it might be safer to buy puts and calls. I think that selling short is far more risky than buying a put... It a Short position goes the wrong way the stock price could jump 10 or 20 or 100 points pulling you further into the whole, while a Put Option would just become worthless.. risk is limited by what you payed (Selling short has limited profit - the price you sold at and unlimited risk - the highest price a stock can be priced at) IMHO - Buy a PUT it's cheaper and safer... (But not canslim-ish) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD Date: 09 Sep 1998 12:54:38 -0700 (PDT) "I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish" Johan, We hadn't heard from your for awhile. We just thought you were off daytrading again. :-). Thanks for your insight. TM ---Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > >To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow > >doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use > >caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan > >take note). > > Jans, > > Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article. > > I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish. > > Reason's to be careful/bearish: > > - We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart. > > - We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, SP500). > > - And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead > resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that is a > resonable amount of time now. > > - There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases. > > - It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks) and steep > (more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight to new > highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much more likely. > > - On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of new lows > also remains high. > > - Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO we also > need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast > decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have had > the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean out > the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows would > be even better. > > Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for the > unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you focus on what is > happening right before your eyes. > As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something like > that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging). > > Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more likely it > is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding. > > If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month bear > market. B^) > > > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD Date: 09 Sep 1998 13:04:07 -0700 (PDT) Johan, I'm doing my assignment. "Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart. We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, SP500)" Gotcha. "And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead resistance" How do you know that, from the volume ? "If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month bear market" That Could coincide with a big political change here with the presidential election cycle coming up. We would have a fresh start all the way around. Thanks, TM ---Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > >To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow > >doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use > >caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan > >take note). > > Jans, > > Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article. > > I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish. > > Reason's to be careful/bearish: > > - We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart. > > - We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, SP500). > > - And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead > resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that is a > resonable amount of time now. > > - There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases. > > - It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks) and steep > (more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight to new > highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much more likely. > > - On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of new lows > also remains high. > > - Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO we also > need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast > decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have had > the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean out > the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows would > be even better. > > Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for the > unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you focus on what is > happening right before your eyes. > As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something like > that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging). > > Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more likely it > is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding. > > If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month bear > market. B^) > > > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Johann Date: 08 Sep 1998 16:32:400 -0500 Johann wrote: "and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my (still) bearish attitude. ;^)" Not sure how good the "Johann Sentiment Indicator" (JSI, for short) will prove to be, but I'm quite delighted, if you are. BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through day] today", Johann? JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The new Bull Market is here!!!!!! YA RIGHT!!!!!! Date: 09 Sep 1998 17:18:56 -0400 I like your idea. Where did the shorting conversation that was started a while back continue? Scott Harlan wrote: > Yes ladies and gentlemen its a brand new bull market with only one > thing > thats significantly different from the last one we just went through. > Its in the opposite direction! Its all on the SHORT SIDE. > > The following are a list of names that have either topped or are in a > correctional phase. After each name will be a little blurp about it. > As > for stops those technically oriented use either the moving average > mentioned (50,200) as your guide, areas of overhead supply, or > resistance levels. For the sake of this post and simplicity we'll use > a > straight 10% stop. Keep in mind this is just a sampling. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Squires Subject: [CANSLIM] Worth Reading Date: 09 Sep 1998 18:30:09 -0400 Hi All, I snipped this from the CBS Market watch page. The comments below are, IMO, right on the money. DCSquires ********************************* To review, it was mentioned in this space July 30 that "...the market is simply not ready for a sustainable intermediate-term advance at present. More of a corrective process is necessary before the seeds can be sown for the next legitimate ascent." (See July 30 Marder on the Markets column). From July 30 to Sept. 1's intraday low of 7,400.30, the Dow proceeded to stumble 1,626.65 points, or 18.0 percent. During this period, the Nasdaq Composite swooned 23.1 percent. Then on Aug. 27 in this space it was stated that "the market needs to once again prove itself by following through on any initial rally attempt. This means ignoring the first few days of a bounceback and focusing on the market's action in the ensuing sessions." (See Aug. 27 Marder on the Markets column). The market's action of Tuesday Sept. 8 constituted a follow-through day, confirming Aug. 31 as an intermediate-term bottom on the Dow. The follow-through technique, developed by William O'Neil, caught the fifth day off the October 1990 bottom, the seventh day off the July 1996 bottom, the seventh day off the April 1997 bottom, and the fifth day off the January 1998 bottom, among other market troughs. Although nothing works all the time in the stock market, the approximate 80 percent success rate of this indicator is to be noted. The market's raft of worries, touched on in the prior column, is another plus. Since the market factors the future into current prices, bottoms are formed amid a climate of fear. It is to be remembered that the bottoms of October 1987, October 1990, April 1994, April 1997, and October 1997 occurred amid heightened worry on the part of investors. That said, stocks will not have a cakewalk ahead of them. In fact, the ensuing advance promises to be more labored than those following the July 1996 and April 1997 lows. The reason can be summed in one word: breadth. When the Dow and S&P 500 indexes made intermediate peaks in May 1996 and March 1997, the cumulative NYSE advance-decline line peaked simultaneously. This time the story's different. The a-d line topped a full 15 weeks before peaks in the blue-chip averages. The upshot is that the market's subsurface deterioration is much worse than at any other point since the bull move began in October 1990. Technically, this deterioration needs more time to repair itself before a strong move can be expected, Tuesday's gargantuan gains notwithstanding. Specifically, individual stocks need to back and fill for a spell until sideways basing patterns are formed. This, in turn, will set the stage for a healthier, more sustained advance. Until then, the session low of Sept. 1 will prove the bottom of the market's summer selloff, which saw the Dow collapse 21.0 percent in a scant six weeks on an intraday basis. The key point is that getting caught up in the fear of the day normally keeps the investor on the sidelines at precisely the time that the market is done factoring all of the bad news into current prices. This is why it is crucial to listen to the message of the market itself. Given its forward-looking demeanor, the market's story usually is the more important one - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Chilling thought, indeed Date: 09 Sep 1998 23:37:24 -0400 From Infobeat's daily comment tonight on the precious metals market: The Bank of Japan announced overnight that it would try to guide its overnight call rate lower in an effort to ease monetary policy. Although the move had little direct impact on the precious complex, if such a move is a harbinger for cuts elsewhere, gold prices could benefit. "If the move by Japan is part of a coordinated effort to ease monetary policy, then it could be read as a (tolerance) for inflation to sustain economic growth," said Dinsa Metha, managing director of global commodities for Chase Manhattan. One of the greatest strengths, indeed its backbone, of this "aging" bull market has been the solid economic growth without inflation. With stable pricing in everything from raw materials to finished goods, with only the slightest of inflationary trends coming in labor costs, a tolerance for inflation would, for me, spell the definitive end of the bull, only the date of the funeral (and the subsequent barbeque, I want the prime rib while I can afford it!!!) left unanswered. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Classic cup/w handle Date: 09 Sep 1998 21:38:55 -0700 My mm likes ORBI and is out about 40% on it. I did a short CANSLIM analysis on it for her and wasn't impressed. EPS is fair but ROE is low, D/E is high. Insiders is low at 8%. (July numbers) At 10:35 AM 9/9/98 -0400, you wrote: >I was looking at the chart of the company for which I work, Orbital >Sciences Corp (NYSE: ORB). On a daily chart, look at 12/31 and 4/15. >Those look like textbook inflection points to me. I had sold some of my >company stock in mid-April on a gut feel, but I wish I had noticed the >exhaustion gap and gone short. BTW, this stock probably wasn't a true >CANSLIM candidate due to EPS. > >Waddaya think? > >Joe Jungbluth > >ps. The company was listed on the NASDAQ before April as ORBI. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Date: 10 Sep 1998 13:02:50 +0300 >TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently > >METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8) > Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts? David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Johann Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:36:44 +0200 >Not sure how good the "Johann Sentiment Indicator" (JSI, for short) will >prove to be, but I'm quite delighted, if you are. :-) Jeffry, So you bought the futures you mentioned a while ago? >BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through >day] today", Johann? Basically? The charts of the main indexes. Technically is is very unlikely that we are in a new upleg without any serious obstacles. In more detail? See my reply re: the 9/9 IBD Investor's corner article. BTW: Johan is written with one 'n'. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:12:19 +0200 At 01:02 PM 10/09/98 +0300, you wrote: >>TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently >> >>METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues >9/8) >> >Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts? David, I had them, but deleted them as I'm not interested in them currently and can look at them @ DGO if I need to. They were quite good when I looked at them. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:31:05 -0500 (CDT) Hello, Does anyone have the new highs, new lows for NYSE and NASDAQ for yesterday, September 9th? Could not find in IBD. Many thanks, Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:49:36 +0200 At 01:02 PM 10/09/98 +0300, you wrote: >>TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently >> >>METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues >9/8) >> >Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts? David, Just had a look again: TSFW: 98 99 A GRS 84 same group as LGTO, NEON, USCS METG:70 98 A GRS 87 -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:58:45 +0200 Mary, Here you go: New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 21 201 908 2144 451 AMEX 5 42 187 363 165 NASDAQ 12 330 1447 2801 832 At 09:31 AM 10/09/98 -0500, you wrote: >Hello, > >Does anyone have the new highs, new lows for NYSE >and NASDAQ for yesterday, September 9th? Could >not find in IBD. > >Many thanks, >Mary Keener > > >- > > -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:58:09 -0700 (PDT) Next time you need this info, Mary, try this link > http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u If it doesn't work, just look for "Market Digest" on Yahoo. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:12:26 +0200 >"And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead >resistance" How do you know that, from the volume ? Indeed. A glance at the chart is worth a thousand words here. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: maurabr Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 15:56:25 -0700 Tired of missing out on investment opportunities? Here's your chance to participate in the next YAHOO! To find out more, follow this link: http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:33:14 -0400 For those that wonder why too much of a good thing is bad, take a look at SIVB today, here's a snapshot of the news: RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET) ** Bankers Trust Alex. Brown said it lowered its rating on shares of SILICON VALLEY BANCSHARES (SIVB: 13-15/16, - 11-23/32) to a market perform from a buy. Per DGO, stock has only 6% management ownership, but 27% funds ownership (wanna bet that last number dropped sharply today, and at 27% it wasn't all that high?). ADV is 105,200 and traded today a total of 4,818,100 shares on a float of 19.2 mil shares. RS was already low, like most banks whether or not they have Russian and/or LATAM exposure. However EPS was a solid 89. Co has slight but growing earnings, and a forecast for the year of +18%, along with a low PE (trailing at 18). Yet loses nearly 50% for the day, and is now down over 24 pts from its high as recently as early July. Fundamentals don't count in this mkt right now, another reason for CANSLIMers to stay away from the barbeque. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:40:40 -0400 Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you rather than an IPO?? Tom W -----Original Message----- >Tired of missing out on investment opportunities? Here's your chance to >participate in the next YAHOO! To find out more, follow this link: >http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good week! Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:13:33 -0400 Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done reasonably well considering.! http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?symbol=$XOI.X&chart1=ma&period=120&time =15m Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also! http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=15m&chart=bar&chart1=bb &volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24iix.x And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close! http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=120&time=15m&chart=bar&chart1=ma &rsi=y&stochastics=y&symbol=%24BKX.X Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:34:18 -0700 Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to participate in this list? Remember Mr. "Hooters"? At 09:40 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote: >Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you rather >than an IPO?? > > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: maurabr >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 6:52 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan > > >>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities? Here's your chance >to >>participate in the next YAHOO! To find out more, follow this link: Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:38:53 -0700 (PDT) <> I'm missing your point. RS was low and earnings were "slight but growing" with a forecast of only 18% (and a PE of 18). So what fundamentals don't count and why would this be considered a CS stock? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:55:35 -0400 Just being my usual naive, trusting, believing, innocent self! And, of course, tomorrow we are going to wake up and discover that Clinton's affair was just a year long republican dream; oil has doubled in price; inflation has gone to negative nrs; the communists in Russia suddenly realize that capitalism is the ONLY way to go; a new 25 year old Japanese prime minister has surprisingly been pushed into power and vows aggressive reforms to restore the economic prestige of his grandfather; the bond mkt has tanked as massive money flow rushes back into equities; Brazil and Venezuela both suddenly vote for statehood, and become the 51st and 52nd states of the USA (with a skirmish likely on who is 51st); gold is discovered to be an aphrodiastiac better than Viagra and soars in demand; the dollar plunges while US exports suddenly skyrocket and analysts rush to raise earnings estimates. And in a frenzied reaction, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials jump a record 3000 points, breaking 10,000 for the first time and fulfilling all the market commentators dreams and forecasts. Suddenly, we have a zillion Elaine Gagarelli's, telling us how they knew it would happen and forecasted it two weeks ago. Of course, advance/decline is once again a 2:5 downside ratio, and all but the Dow 30 closes at a new low. Hey, I can still fantasize, can't I?? At least I hit the delete button rather than clicking on his link to another hyped IPO in a bearish mkt. Probably a bulletin board stock anyway! Tom W -----Original Message----- >Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to participate in this >list? Remember Mr. "Hooters"? > >At 09:40 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote: >>Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you rather >>than an IPO?? >> >> >>Tom W >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: maurabr >>To: canslim@xmission.com >>Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 6:52 PM >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan >> >> >>>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities? Here's your chance >>to >>>participate in the next YAHOO! To find out more, follow this link: > > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jubileeyear@juno.com (Neil V. Himber) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:00:35 -0400 On Thu, 10 Sep 1998 15:56:25 -0700 maurabr writes: >Tired of missing out on investment opportunities? Here's your chance >to >participate in the next YAHOO! To find out more, follow this link: >http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html > > >- > > _____________________________________________________________________ You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:09:57 -0400 db, All the banks have tanked in the past month, even CCI has an RS of only 33, so an RS of 58 which SIVB holds still after today's plunge still looks pretty respectable, tho not CANSLIM. And with solid if slow earnings growth, it still looks strong within its industry group, and I think you were one of the members advocating group focus. Looking at the chart at DGO, for those that value that source of data direct from WON, suggests the stock held up quite well for the past month compared to its industry sector. In any correction, I expect cos with high PEs generated through high expectations to suffer more than those with low PEs trading far more on their fundamentals. To see a stock with a low PE drop nearly 50% just because of a ratings cut appears like an overreaction to me, exasperated perhaps by large holdings by funds. Both WON and Ryan advocate owning stocks with strong management ownership and less than 10% funds ownership. This stock was simply an example of a profitable company, lacking the ongoing Asian, Russian and LATAM exposure which has knocked down the intl banking sector, yet still devastated by a brokerage house rating change. The "coincidence" that it also had a minimal management ownership and a proportionately large funds ownership shouldn't be missed, assuming you still follow WON and Ryan's recommendations on management and funds ownership. Tom W -----Original Message----- > ><at SIVB today, here's a snapshot of the news: > >RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET) >** Bankers Trust Alex. Brown said it lowered its rating on shares of >SILICON VALLEY BANCSHARES (SIVB: 13-15/16, - 11-23/32) to a market >perform from a buy. > >Per DGO, stock has only 6% management ownership, but 27% funds >ownership (wanna bet that last number dropped sharply today, and at >27% it wasn't all that high?). ADV is 105,200 and traded today a total >of 4,818,100 shares on a float of 19.2 mil shares. RS was already low, >like most banks whether or not they have Russian and/or LATAM >exposure. However EPS was a solid 89. Co has slight but growing >earnings, and a forecast for the year of +18%, along with a low PE >(trailing at 18). Yet loses nearly 50% for the day, and is now down >over 24 pts from its high as recently as early July. Fundamentals >don't count in this mkt right now, another reason for CANSLIMers to >stay away from the barbeque. > >Tom W>> > >I'm missing your point. RS was low and earnings were "slight but >growing" with a forecast of only 18% (and a PE of 18). So what >fundamentals don't count and why would this be considered a CS stock? > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:09:50 -0500 Geez Tom,,, Easy,, give me a little time to cover a few shorts huh? joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] You think we got problems?? Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:19:55 -0400 Talk about a meltdown, Brazil was down 6.7% in the first 20 minutes of trading today, finished down over 15.8% for today alone. Several other LATAM countries also continued their slide, notably Mexico (-5.8%) and Venezuela (nearly -4.5%). As I write, Japan is down another 3.8% (over 500 pts) and threatening to once again close under 14,000. If this is a follow thru rally, it's the strangest and most contradictory one I've ever seen. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Sutton Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of HGS files Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:19:43 -0600 Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail editor. I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word. Hopefully I can get things reconstructed by the weekend. And the market is crashing around my ears! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:40:28 -0400 Frank, Nice selection of charts. Thank you for sharing them! Best Regards, Craig At 10:13 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote: >Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done >reasonably well considering.! >Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also! >And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close! > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:55:57 -0400 Your welcome! Glad you found it useful. I found it tonight and it compliments my group focus. In case you haven't discovered it yet, the site covers many other indexes, http://www.iqc.com/lookup/index_often.htm will display those the site has selected, but if you know the symbols, others are available. I've created Netscape bookmarks for some of my favorites, which places a 5min or 15min group chart, a single click away. Regards, Frank Wolynski At 23:40 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote: >Frank, > >Nice selection of charts. Thank you for sharing them! > >Best Regards, >Craig > >At 10:13 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote: >>Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done >>reasonably well considering.! >>Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also! >>And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close! >> > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Misc Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:29:52 -0800 I hadn't been to the Nasdaq site for several months, dropped in today and it has been changed quite a bit since my last visit, for the better. Good place to check out if you haven't been there for awhile, or ever - www.nasdaq.com On NBR a day or two ago the First Call guy was on and he talked about earnings forecasts for the third quarter. They have been reduced by analysts from an expected gain of 10% to 1.5%. He wondered if analysts might be still too optimistic about the fourth quarter. Of course, this all has significant implications for the stock market. Stocks are valued on future earnings, and they were at a very high level. These reductions probably account for at least some part of the recent decline. Don't see any stocks I want to buy in the current envrionment, but one I noticed has held up reasonably well is Express Scripts (ESRX), might be good once things settle down. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:07:28 -0700 (PDT) <> Although it could just as easily have been exacerbated by daytraders who rode the stock down. 27% is hardly an unusually large percentage of fund ownership. <> I don't know about Ryan, but O'N no longer cares about a low fund ownership percentage. In any case, I still don't see how slow earnings growth qualifies it as CS. It's not important, though. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally in the futures amidst global collapse Date: 11 Sep 1998 08:00:58 -0400 Quite interesting and educational to watch the futures this morning. Right now Nasdaq up nearly 2% while S&P up almost 1%, Nasdaq in particular trending up. Meanwhile the US dollar continues its collapse amid political uncertainty and fears of the US economy finally faltering. Volatility has reached extremes, VIX near an all time record high, while the US bond mkt benefited from the flight from the stock mkt, once again closing at record levels. An interesting side effect of all this is the collapse of the US dollar against all major currencies. This could improve US exports, thus helping shore up profits above analysts forecasts. Granted, it also means imports become more expensive, thus inflationary, but also could help at least put a bottom into some foreign economies despite their failure to act regionally or locally. Neither Asia nor Europe would suggest a positive opening for the US mkts, will be interesting to see if the futures gives any better picture, tho lately it has not been a very good indicator by itself. Japan took a major hit last night, closing once again below 14,000. Yet the yen seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the falling dollar. No domestic confidence in their leadership, maybe? Certainly there are fears of some major bankruptcies yet to happen, particularly in the banking sector but also among the manufacturing sector as well. Oils keep trying to recover, inventories now appear to be showing a slow but consistent drop. Cooler weather in the north also seems to be helping heating oil prices. If world economies start to recover, could oils turn out to be the new leadership?? Only time will tell. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] 9/10 Date: 11 Sep 1998 05:09:24 -0700 (PDT) 235/1346/1345/1936/1739/46.6/37.3/15% I'll save these and you can catch up later if needed. TM ---Dan Sutton wrote: > > Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a > catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back > together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail editor. > I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word. Hopefully I > can get things reconstructed by the weekend. > > And the market is crashing around my ears! > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Sutton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 9/10 Date: 11 Sep 1998 06:27:26 -0600 TM wrote: > > 235/1346/1345/1936/1739/46.6/37.3/15% > I'll save these and you can catch up later if needed. > TM > I am able to get Excel to save the file (just can't copy the formulas right now), so at least we are getting the database built. Thanks - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of HGS files Date: 11 Sep 1998 08:58:10 -0400 Dan Sutton wrote: > Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a > catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back > together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail editor. > I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word. Hopefully I > can get things reconstructed by the weekend. > > And the market is crashing around my ears! Must be the USA Flu... My machine has been down for almost a week, I finally got everything loaded back on it... now to just reconfigure it... sigh... (with the cost of disk drives it's really looking good to spend the extra) ($200 or so to get a second to do a full disk copy...) (6GB disk about $200) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Top10List WEReview 9/11 Date: 11 Sep 1998 06:12:29 -0700 (PDT) SUNW Computer Micro/Mini SWWC Utilities-water VLGEA Retail/super/mini swy fdlna fdlnb kr UFS Food canned WCG Insurance Broker EWB Lowest EPS 85, RS 90, A/B Last week's top 10 (IBD Weekend Review) was up 21%. (nonweighted) TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan Date: 11 Sep 1998 13:17:38 GMT Tom, Your answer to that "cracking up" bit really did make me laugh. Yes, You can fantasize! Great stuff! Dan On Thu, 10 Sep 1998 22:55:35 -0400, you wrote: :Just being my usual naive, trusting, believing, innocent self! : :And, of course, tomorrow we are going to wake up and discover that :Clinton's affair was just a year long republican dream; oil has... :Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan : : :>Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to :participate in this :>list? :> :>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists :>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site :>PFB Information :>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com :>WWW http://OreRockOn.com musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 11 Sep 1998 20:33:19 -0700 (PDT) Part One The outlook is much brighter this week. Quite a few groups have begun pulling themselves up off the bottom. Of the groups I follow, 16 have broken upward through their 17d MAs (everything is still below the 50d except for Drug Stores, but this group is unduly affected by Long's). The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the count begins again when they reemerge to the upside. Integrated Systems Mainframes SW Security Biomed-Genetics Generic Drugs Hospitals Medl/Dentl Svcs Production/Pipeline Drug Stores Whlsle Fds The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days: Drilling Field Services Machinery/Equipment Exploration & Production US Integrated Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days. Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended While the idea that the oils will lead anything has been a source of great amusement for a few people, it's important not to get too wrapped up in an individual scenario but rather to focus on the charts. Drillers are up 35% from their bottom a week ago. Field Services are up 30%. Machinery & Equipment is up 40%. These may not be CS, but they beat the he** out of money market returns. (At least for the last couple of weeks. They may collapse by Tuesday.) While poring over various news items and trying to predict market activity based on these events is a diverting activity, it should not be taken too seriously, particularly by those new to the markets. The fact is that no one can predict with any degree of certainty what is going to happen from one day to the next. This has been shown clearly to be the case, as one pundit or another bemoans the market activity in Katmandu and the certain and imminent collapse of the U.S. markets when they open just moments from now. And, of course, by the end of the day the Dow is up several hundred points. (Technicians fall into the same trap when they try to move from what is to what might be to what will most likely be to what will be--can't be done.) At the very least, one must be aware of and keep in mind the market's discounting mechanism. As those who've followed the markets for a while know, this mechanism takes whatever information is available to it at any given moment and factors it into the stock or market price (whether the information is true or not is beside the point). Thus, Greenspan speaks and the markets rise as those who buy and sell factor in the information that is provided (or that they think is provided)--in this case, an easing. One shouldn't be surprised if the market rises no further in the event of such an easing because it has already been "discounted". Ditto with the devaluation of one currency or another, the exposure of a scandal, the collapse of a government somewhere, an earthquake. It may take hours or only seconds, but once this discounting has taken place, that's it, at least until the information has been further digested or reevaluated (which it may not be, depending on its perceived importance). Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall by the same amount, or do nothing at all. But it's not possible to say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box or Wall Street Week or some bulletin board or other, is a serious mistake. O'N cautions investors to pay attention to daily market activity, not to what anyone says about daily market activity, and to focus on the charts, not to hopes or expectations or estimations or opinions or hype of any kind. The market may not pull itself out of this funk before November, or maybe not until January. But when it eventually does so, it will do so without the help of the talking heads (or maybe in spite of them), and the leaders will be determined not by consensus, but by the demand which is reflected in their charts. Anyone who wishes to spot these leaders would do well to rid himself of whatever preconceptions he may have and begin following group strength and determining which are the most powerful stocks in the most rapidly accelerating groups. We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :) --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength Date: 12 Sep 1998 07:01:56 -0400 > Part One > > The outlook is much brighter this week. Quite a few groups have begun > pulling themselves up off the bottom. Of the groups I follow, 16 have > broken upward through their 17d MAs (everything is still below the 50d > except for Drug Stores, but this group is unduly affected by Long's). > > The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have > broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the > count begins again when they reemerge to the upside. > > Integrated Systems > Mainframes > SW Security > Biomed-Genetics > Generic Drugs > Hospitals > Medl/Dentl Svcs > Production/Pipeline > Drug Stores > Whlsle Fds > > The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days: > > Drilling > Field Services > Machinery/Equipment > Exploration & Production > US Integrated > > Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days. > Thanks for this update, Db. Group strength I appreciate, but could you elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM? Is it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept? > The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have > broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the > count begins again when they reemerge to the upside. > What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA? Appreciate your thoughts. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Johan Date: 12 Sep 1998 07:12:58 -0400 > Jeffry, > > So you bought the futures you mentioned a while ago? > > >BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through > >day] today", Johann? > > Basically? The charts of the main indexes. Technically is is very unlikely > that we are in a new upleg without any serious obstacles. In more detail? > See my reply re: the 9/9 IBD Investor's corner article. > > BTW: Johan is written with one 'n'. > > > > > - -- Johan Van Houtven > > Sorry for my misspelling, Johan. On the futures, I didn't buy the recent signals because of a delay in getting my account funded. I am paper trading it off the recent signals. Currently, a 2 lot in the Dec. mini-value line on with about a 40% lead (need to factor the rollover from the Sept. K, but that's about right) on the average of the entries, at this point. Account is funded now, so I am hoping for another reversal signal to get long, but would consider a short on a distribution day. I'll update you privately, if you wish. Pop me a note. On the "more detail" portion of your market comment, I missed your reply re: 9/9 IBD article and at this point, I have yet to see the article itself (recent move has totally confused the Postal Service). Guess the answers are there. Regards. Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:07:10 -0400 db, Don't know nor care if your comments on oils were in part directed towards me, but since I have made numerous comments on this sector in the past six months or so, will add some further comments. Some months ago, the oils groups were starting to look oversold and potentially favorable. A number of members of this group, trying to adhere to CANSLIM while still recognizing oversold/undervalued opportunity, commented favorably on a nr of oil related cos. I responded negatively. My comments were based on CANSLIM, technicals, as well as my perception of the global situation. WON is not a mechanic nor, to any heavy degree, a technician. While he incorporates a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in assessing "M". I try to do the same. We are in a global market whether we like it or not, and despite a still successful US economy, we are affected by the Asian flu, the Russian collapse, Zippergate, LATAM economic collapses and devaluations, etc. My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply) the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a CANSLIM environment. A similar picture can be drawn for the semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off. INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well. Whether we like it or not, news does play a part in the market, and thus should play a role in our assessment of "M". This is true whether we are a day trader, short term "investor", or investing for the intermediate or long term. The bottom line remains whether our entry point is lower than the present value and/or exit point. I never met an investor happy that he finally owned a stock, only to have it trading lower. Thus, correct entry remains paramount. Because of their potential for "windfall" earnings, I think the oils group has the possibility for becoming at least a short term, if not intermediate term, leadership group. May not happen, and not sure now is the right time to even consider opening any positions. But I do think it is a good time to be watching them. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended > >While the idea that the oils will lead anything has been a source of >great amusement for a few people, it's important not to get too >wrapped up in an individual scenario but rather to focus on the >charts. Drillers are up 35% from their bottom a week ago. Field >Services are up 30%. Machinery & Equipment is up 40%. These may not >be CS, but they beat the he** out of money market returns. (At least >for the last couple of weeks. They may collapse by Tuesday.) > >While poring over various news items and trying to predict market >activity based on these events is a diverting activity, it should not >be taken too seriously, particularly by those new to the markets. The >fact is that no one can predict with any degree of certainty what is >going to happen from one day to the next. This has been shown clearly >to be the case, as one pundit or another bemoans the market activity >in Katmandu and the certain and imminent collapse of the U.S. markets >when they open just moments from now. And, of course, by the end of >the day the Dow is up several hundred points. (Technicians fall into >the same trap when they try to move from what is to what might be to >what will most likely be to what will be--can't be done.) > >At the very least, one must be aware of and keep in mind the market's >discounting mechanism. As those who've followed the markets for a >while know, this mechanism takes whatever information is available to >it at any given moment and factors it into the stock or market price >(whether the information is true or not is beside the point). Thus, >Greenspan speaks and the markets rise as those who buy and sell factor >in the information that is provided (or that they think is >provided)--in this case, an easing. One shouldn't be surprised if the >market rises no further in the event of such an easing because it has >already been "discounted". Ditto with the devaluation of one currency >or another, the exposure of a scandal, the collapse of a government >somewhere, an earthquake. It may take hours or only seconds, but once >this discounting has taken place, that's it, at least until the >information has been further digested or reevaluated (which it may not >be, depending on its perceived importance). > >Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall >by the same amount, or do nothing at all. But it's not possible to >say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil >or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems >to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box or Wall >Street Week or some bulletin board or other, is a serious mistake. >O'N cautions investors to pay attention to daily market activity, not >to what anyone says about daily market activity, and to focus on the >charts, not to hopes or expectations or estimations or opinions or >hype of any kind. The market may not pull itself out of this funk >before November, or maybe not until January. But when it eventually >does so, it will do so without the help of the talking heads (or maybe >in spite of them), and the leaders will be determined not by >consensus, but by the demand which is reflected in their charts. >Anyone who wishes to spot these leaders would do well to rid himself >of whatever preconceptions he may have and begin following group >strength and determining which are the most powerful stocks in the >most rapidly accelerating groups. > >We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :) > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Slim Pickings Date: 12 Sep 1998 09:00:12 -0400 From DGO's list of stocks in the books that hit new highs last week, only 38 candidates. Lowest nr yet. Of those, ones that have at least met the 80/80 test: MNMD, SERO, LGTO, TSFW (that one seems to keep popping up on watch lists!), SUT, BEI, JKHY, UFS, AGN, and MDU. Haven't looked at the charts yet, just a preliminary screen. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:39:20 -0400 >> But I do think it is a good time to be watching them. << I agree. The ones to watch are the ones with insider buying. A few off the top of my head are ESV,MARY,DRQ & BJS. I use a weekly chart to follow them verses a daily for my shorts. All four of these stocks have insider buying & made IBD's % rise in volume on the upside at one time or another. I'm waiting for the weekly to show me one higher low & one higher high then the previous high/low. Then I'll start buying. I never buy at the bottom nor sell at the top. Bob I own none of them & have been short this market for a while :-) but looking for some longs. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance Date: 12 Sep 1998 10:54:11 -0400 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Thanks DB for the group assessments/chart interpretations. Most excellent post. Thanks also to Tom and Robert Bomba (where do you get the insider info?). Great follow through posts. I'd rate them a 1% with Adv Vol. :-) I extended the list to include the top 25. This to include some of the other Oil groups which are continuing to follow through from last weeks positive moves. They were overshadowed by some snap back moves in severely oversold groups,(IE, Banks-Super, Airlines, Computer stuff). The mechanics of the market are represented below! Interpretations are left to you! Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 ArialRetail-Drug Stores 7.6 3 5 # 2 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 6.8 22 41 # 3 Computer-Local Networks 6.5 24 60 # 4 Computer Softwr-Security 6.4 181 173 # 5 Computer-Memory Devices 6.2 48 70 # 6 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip 6.1 190 194 # 7 Banks-Super Regional 5.7 106 135 # 8 Computer-Mini/Micro 5.7 2 1 # 9 Medical-Biomed/Genetics 5.3 89 86 #10 Household-Audio/Video 5.3 49 62 #11 Retail-Major Disc Chains 5.2 39 38 #12 Oil&Gas-US Integrated 5.1 109 146 #13 Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund 5.0 27 29 #14 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod 5.0 133 158 #15 Media-Cable Tv 4.9 1 2 #16 Computer-Mainframes 4.4 11 18 #17 Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prods 4.4 57 89 #18 Oil & Gas-Drilling 4.3 197 197 #19 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated 4.3 97 143 #20 Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell 4.2 79 88 #21 Metal-Steel Pipe & Tube 4.0 185 184 #22 Transportation-Airline 3.8 170 162 #23 Computer-Services 3.8 32 26 #24 Retail-Apparel/Shoe 3.7 38 32 #25 Oil&Gas-Field Services 3.7 184 186 Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Media-Periodicals -2.8 157 153 #189 Hsehold/Office Furniture -2.9 73 73 #190 Food-Canned -2.9 118 114 #191 Food-Diary Products -3.0 141 169 #192 Bldg-Cement/Concrt/Ag -3.5 51 22 #193 Machinery-Farm -3.5 191 193 #194 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds -3.5 149 96 #195 Media-Radio/Tv -3.6 23 25 #196 Transport-Air Freight -4.3 196 189 #197 Real Estate Operations -5.2 67 51 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:30:28 -0700 (PDT) >>Group strength I appreciate, but could you elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM? Is it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept? > The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have > broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the > count begins again when they reemerge to the upside. > What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA?>> Anything beyond a 50d MA and a rectangular base or handle within 15% of a new high has nothing to do with CANSLIM. But as CS has become more popular and the number of funds and daytraders have multiplied, I've found the basic CS tools to be inadequate on their own, hence my use of technical indicators based on moving averages and chart patterns other than rectangular bases. This is a purely personal perception and not intended as a condemnation of CS. Anyone who's having luck with standard CS and the buy-the-breakout approach is to be envied. By "count" I don't mean to imply that there's anything mechanical about this. When a stock is trending (or a group of stocks which is represented by a composite chart), a moving average can be an important tool to alert the investor as to a potential breakout or breakdown, or at least a change in the character of the price movement. Thus, if a stock is trending downward, say, and its descent begins to slow, the angle of descent will either segue into a base or reach zero. Assuming that it segues into a base, it will then either break a downtrend line or a moving average, depending on how short the moving average is and how long the stock has been in a descent. Some stocks will then begin to turn upward into a U shape (I'm seeing a lot of these). Very short-term traders and daytraders will find the breaking of these MAs important and useful. Longer-term investors will hope for a base because of what the base accomplishes. If the stock does segue into a base, the MAs become less useful. A stock can drift through its 17d or 50d MA repeatedly while it's basing (depending on how long the basing process takes; at some point even the 150 or 200 may come into play). Therefore, if a stock has broken upward through the 17d (or 20d) and perhaps subsequently the 50d, one wants to see it stay there. This indicates not only real demand, but a real change in direction. If the stock falters and drops back below whatever MA is being used, it can either be losing steam (it may have broken through because of news or because of something having to do with another stock in the group) or it can be seguing into a base. Therefore, if one has a favorite group of stocks on a watchlist, some of them have begun to show strength in terms of their relationships with their moving averages and/or trendlines, and it seems to the investor that it might be time to begin to accumulate them, he'd expect these stocks to stay above whatever level is being used. If they don't, then one must look at the possibility of further decline or just simple basing. In either case, even accumulation may not be appropriate as the basing process (if that's what it turns out to be) can go on for months. If the 17d is below the 50d and the 50d is below the 200, the stock has to get through the 17 first. I want to see it break through that average and stay there for at least two days, perhaps longer if there's any question of a short-covering "rally". I also like to see it closing at or near its highs for several days on the way up and through (and there's always the volume to look at--and higher lows on the way up are always a plus). If it wants to rest there, that's fine, but I don't want to see it fall back through whatever line. If it does, there may be a problem or it may be seguing into a base, which means that I continue to keep my wallet in my pocket, at least for the time being. Woodward advises against buying any stock below its 200d unless you know exactly what you're doing and have the discipline to get out at the least hint of trouble. O'N implies the same thing by encouraging the investor to stick with stocks with RS above 80, though as the number of stocks below their 200d increases, this can become a sticky point to debate. Both would say, I believe, that bottom-fishing is appropriate only for cyclicals, commodity stocks, "mattress-stuffers", and the like. Woodward counsels, however, that one not even touch an individual stock until the group chart has shown the same strength that one would require of a stock. In other words, if an investor buys when the 17d breaks upward through the 50d, he'd wait to see this strength in the group chart before taking a position in an individual stock. This is consistent with O'N's view of the importance of the group in stock movement. This may mean that the cautious investor may have to let the first few stocks out of the gate move ahead without him, but it also gives him assurance that there's something dependable going on here. My apologies for the length and for what may have been unnecessary repetition. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance Date: 12 Sep 1998 11:48:14 -0400 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver 6.9 132 166 # 2 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 4.1 22 41 # 3 Retail-Drug Stores 3.8 3 5 # 4 Utility-Electric Power 1.8 9 11 # 5 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated 1.8 97 143 # 6 Oil&Gas-US Integrated 0.1 109 146 ffff,0000,0000# 7 Oil & Gas-Drilling -0.3 197 197 # 8 Medical-Drug/Diversified -0.9 6 8 # 9 Utility-Water Supply -1.7 4 4 #10 Utility-Gas Distribution -1.8 44 63 0000,8080,0000 Worst 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Media-Periodicals -21.8 157 153 #189 Financial Services-Misc -22.4 84 55 #190 Computer Softwr-Educ/Entr -23.4 128 133 #191 Finance-Investment Mgmt -23.5 105 48 #192 Retail-Mail Order&Direct -24.7 159 139 #193 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds -25.6 149 96 #194 Banks-Money Center -28.6 179 174 #195 Finance-Investment Bkrs -28.8 107 98 #196 Retail-Discount&Variety -28.8 145 102 #197 Computer Softwr-Internet -43.9 5 3 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:51:17 -0700 (PDT) <> As a matter of fact, they weren't. I don't recall any particular derision on your part. The point of my comments on oils had nothing to do with oils per se. They may collapse next week and continue to base, though that would be a big plus right there. I said what I did because of the tendency of so many to develop scenarios for themselves--whether based on their own research or on the opinions of others--and then become wedded to those scenarios. Believing that, for example, semiconductors can't possibly lead the next leg of the bull market, they completely ignore all evidence to the contrary until it becomes obvious even to Newsweek that semiconductors (or software or consumer nondurables or whatever) are in fact leading the next leg of the bull market. IMO, the best advice O'N has ever given as part of CS is to learn how to interpret the information he provides on IBD's indicators page. Only then can one hope to filter out all the noise one gets from TV, magazines, e-mail groups, message boards, newsletters and to eventually become one's own guru. It's also worth keeping in mind that the market looks ahead. To a large extent, it couldn't care less what's going on today. It's trying to figure out what life will be like in six to nine months. Therefore, in the case of the oils, the current oversupply may be a non-issue. Everybody knows about it and it's all been discounted. Analysts who've been around for a while know how the pendulum swings in this area, whether it be oil, beef, wheat, or bell peppers. It's not all that difficult to go from drowning in oversupply to suffering critical shortages. If the activity in certain stocks and groups seems a mystery, it is often helpful to look ahead a couple of quarters to see if any light dawns (if nothing else, the SQLY comparisons starting next year for many, many stocks may be pretty spectacular, if for no other reason than that earnings this year sucked so badly). --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 12:04:31 EDT Nice post db Surindra In a message dated 9/11/98 11:53:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time, dbphoenix@yahoo.com writes: << <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< snipped a lot >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended While the idea that the oils will lead anything And, of course, by the end of the day the Dow is up several hundred points. Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall by the same amount, or do nothing at all. But it's not possible to say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :) --Db >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production Date: 12 Sep 1998 13:10:19 -0400 U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from foreign suppliers. That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged 9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil contract settled at $14.34. Complete story at: http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 11:35:09 -0500 Tom Worley wrote (in part) My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply) the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a CANSLIM environment. A similar picture can be drawn for the semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off. INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well. I may be reading too much into this, BUT it does us well to remember that the semiconductor chip (as opposed to semiconductor equipment) market is more than just DRAMs and Intel CPUs. In DRAMs we do have an excess of supply. Other types of chips are not so strongly affected by the national pride that seems to get wound around DRAM production. Chips made by Texas Instruments, Motorola, Analog Devices, Lucent, and others get buried within the tele and data communications infrastucture, medical equipment, autos, process control equipment, scanners, cash registers, etc. that have little correlation with the sales of PCs. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 12 Sep 1998 10:28:18 -0700 (PDT) <> Good point, Robert. This reportedly is one reason why VTSS has done so much better than its group, i.e., its tie-in with telecommunications. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production Date: 12 Sep 1998 16:50:04 EDT Thanks Frank. Some more info at: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/bla.html In a message dated 9/12/98 1:11:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Wolynski@MindSpring.Com writes: << U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from foreign suppliers. That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged 9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil contract settled at $14.34. Complete story at: http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil Frank Wolynski >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 13 Sep 1998 20:43:03 +0200 DB, Thanks for a nice post. I looked at the groups you mentioned this weekend. Also looked at all other groups. Here are some comments. Mostly just the stocks that had interesting charts. If you notice that I left important ones out, I'd be grateful if you would point them out. >Integrated Systems JKHY ORCL beat est. past week >Mainframes Is this a DGO group? SUNW (workstations) >SW Security >Biomed-Genetics BGEN, AMGN, HEB (hype). >Generic Drugs ALO >Hospitals >Medl/Dentl Svcs >Production/Pipeline Don't know this group. >Drug Stores LDG, DRD >Whlsle Fds >The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days: > >Drilling >Field Services >Machinery/Equipment >Exploration & Production >US Integrated 5 groups above: Some stocks already 50% up or more. Makes me sick! ;^) But all still in downtrends, so might be counter-trend rally. Must all be watched closely though. >Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days. What do you get if you delete AMP & BEI from the group? Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: [CANSLIM] Peter Lynch Date: 13 Sep 1998 13:58:33 PDT Thought some of you might be interested... http://www.kentuckyconnect.com/heraldleader/news/091398/b1facts.shtml ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 13 Sep 1998 18:29:48 -0400 Tom, you wrote: > While he incorporates a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in > assessing "M". I try to do the same. I recently noticed WON commenting on "news" in attempting to "context" the potential for a failed follow through day in early August. First I'd heard him mention such "noise", with the exception of the monumental events that turned markets past. In a recent IBD article, he stated that the follow through days were suspect because the were precipitated by "news". This particularly hit home with me because I have not, for a year or more, bought a stock that has broken out on "news". Don't trust that type of breakout anymore after having been burned on "news" generated moves in the past. And now, my "M" interpretation will endeavor to "context" a follow through day as suggested by WON's recent IBD article. But that will be the limit of my willingness to let "news" affect the way I trade. Now, I know you use "news" in assessing "M", but yours is an everday, almost minute by minute approach. Fair? Or are you suggesting that your efforts at assessing "M" or more along the "event" driven, turning point variety seemingly viewed in hindsight by WON (with the exception of "contexting" a follow through day). And if you believe WON assesses "M" using "news" on a minute by minute, or day by day approach, please share with us the source of your comment quoted above. Perhaps those members who attended this weekends WON seminar could let us know whether Mr. O'Neill mentioned the "news" in any way shape or form. Thanks in advance, Tom. Jw - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 05:57:06 -0400 Jeffry, I suspect that I have a much stronger "economics" bent than does WON. Certainly I remain more concerned with day to day events, such as economics reports being released, than does WON. This stems in large part from my background as a broker. When I had several hundred clients, I was dealing every day with buy, sell and hold decisions. Not a day went by without at least a few clients asking these questions on a particular stock. In many cases, the client was going to buy or sell, was just a question of whether it would be that morning or afternoon or the next day or so. Thus, it was not sufficient for me to simply be in touch with the overall "M", I also had to be aware of news and other influences that could change the price of a single stock on a very short term basis. I also try to assess whether a favorable investing environment can continue, or an unfavorable one is nearing an end, which may be triggered by a "news event". I don't make investing decisions on this, just try to have the knowledge in my head. For example, right now all that has been sustaining the US mkts is domestic consumer spending, which has been exceeding comsumer income growth for some time until last month. Thus, spending was either being done on credit or using other funds, such as profits from the mkt. And consumer willingness to spend had a lot to do with their confidence in continued growth in the mkt. Confidence fell last month, as did spending. One month does not establish a trend, but is a red flag for me. I suspect consumer confidence will remain weak, in part because of Zippergate along with all the other global economic reasons. So the consumer income and spending reports takes on added significance for me. I view these the same way as I would a company's qtrly sales dropping. On the other hand, to the degree that any news, be it on a single stock, an industry group, or the market at large, will be evenually factored in, then even WON is considering the effects of news when he "looks back" from a technical standpoint. On individual stocks, the only news driven "breakout" that I will trust is where a company initiates (or greatly increases) its dividend. I have found this to be a reliable "insider" indication of future profit growth and has worked well for me when the chart has a good base. For short term trading, an announcement of a stock split on a strong company also usually works for a few days if "M" is also favorable. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Tom, you wrote: > > >> While he incorporates a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in >> assessing "M". I try to do the same. > > >I recently noticed WON commenting on "news" in attempting to "context" >the potential for a failed follow through day in early August. First >I'd heard him mention such "noise", with the exception of the monumental >events that turned markets past. In a recent IBD article, he stated >that the follow through days were suspect because the were precipitated >by "news". This particularly hit home with me because I have not, for a >year or more, bought a stock that has broken out on "news". Don't trust >that type of breakout anymore after having been burned on "news" >generated moves in the past. And now, my "M" interpretation will >endeavor to "context" a follow through day as suggested by WON's recent >IBD article. But that will be the limit of my willingness to let "news" >affect the way I trade. > >Now, I know you use "news" in assessing "M", but yours is an everday, >almost minute by minute approach. Fair? Or are you suggesting that your >efforts at assessing "M" or more along the "event" driven, turning point >variety seemingly viewed in hindsight by WON (with the exception of >"contexting" a follow through day). And if you believe WON assesses "M" >using "news" on a minute by minute, or day by day approach, please share >with us the source of your comment quoted above. > >Perhaps those members who attended this weekends WON seminar could let >us know whether Mr. O'Neill mentioned the "news" in any way shape or >form. > >Thanks in advance, Tom. > >Jw > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Where can I get Beta on stocks? Date: 14 Sep 1998 13:39:13 GMT When I had DGO beta, I had access to "alpha" and "beta" for stocks. Where can I get this online (for free?). TIA Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 07:01:13 -0700 (PDT) <<>Mainframes Is this a DGO group? SUNW (workstations)>> I don't know about DGO. It's a very small IBD group, dominated by IBM. <<>Hospitals >Medl/Dentl Svcs >Production/Pipeline Don't know this group.>> If you're referring to the last, it's under Oil&Gas. <<>Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days. What do you get if you delete AMP & BEI from the group?>> If these two are deleted, the group has been above its 17d for only one day. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 09:57:52 -0700 (PDT) <Integrated Systems JKHY ORCL beat est. past week>> PMS might be worth watching. <<>Biomed-Genetics BGEN, AMGN, HEB (hype).>> GNE is a possibility. These are the only two I'd add. Everything else is far too wide and loose for my taste. As far as the O&G stocks go, a number of them have broken out of their downtrend channels, but not necessarily to the upside. The most attractive, IMO, in terms of chart pattern and the indicators I use is ESV. There may be more in a day or so. As far as deciding whether a stock is getting ready to base or not, I'm going mostly by volume. I figure if it's there, the short-term trend is up. Only a few of these are showing a pattern of clear-cut strong upside volume. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 19:09:03 +0200 Thanks, DB. Glad to see I didn't miss many. >PMS might be worth watching. We I came across that one, I thought "80% chance that DB is approaching this one with his Stoch/MACD method." :) >As far as the O&G stocks go, a number of them have broken out of their >downtrend channels, but not necessarily to the upside. The most >attractive, IMO, in terms of chart pattern and the indicators I use is >ESV. Funny, nr. one on my watch list. But I didn't pull the buy trigger yet... not so funny. :) To all: Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT) Johan, >Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site. Would you care to post. Thanks, Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 19:48:02 +0200 >>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site. > >Would you care to post. Here you go: http://nt-chat0.telescan.com:8080/gotomenu Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI Date: 14 Sep 1998 18:33:14 -0700 (PDT) AVEI looks like it broke out today. What do you folks think ? > > > >>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site. > > > >Would you care to post. > > Here you go: > > http://nt-chat0.telescan.com:8080/gotomenu > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Scan Optics (SOCR) Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:48:51 -0400 Members, Anyone who stills owns Scan Optics please contact me privately at stkguru@netside.net Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:00:59 -0500 Anindo Majumdar wrote: > > AVEI looks like it broke out today. What do you folks think ? Not really.... it hasn't based - looks more like a roller coaster. I believe a stock needs to base a little to constitute a 'break out'. But... I could be wrong. Dave Cameron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Scan Optics (SOCR) Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:01:51 -0500 Don't own SOCR - but OUCH! Were you still hanging on? Dave Cameron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500 Jeffry, old man, With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see Part Two. How many parts are there? Is this a mini-series? I think you have a great point on not buying on news. My success rate is close to zero in these instances; at least for individual stocks. Just my 1.7 cents (down from 2 cents - like most of my holdings) Dave Cameron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI Date: 14 Sep 1998 20:58:48 -0500 no volume,, only 1,961K average is 1.729K just up on a good day.. looks to me anyway, joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 15 Sep 1998 05:10:15 GMT On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: :Johan, : :>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat = site. : :Would you care to post. : :Thanks, : :Deepak I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800 If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list of the top 50, according to someone. http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:44:40 GMT On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote: :If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list=20 :of the top 50, according to someone. : : : : :http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html Cool. Maybe I can find beta at one of these. Dan "Enough, or too much." -- Wm Blake musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:49:11 GMT On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote: :If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list=20 :of the top 50, according to someone. : : : : :http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html : Well, here's the list! I'm posting this because the majority of these are not linked at the website. However, when I get my own submission to this list, they will all be hyperlinked! Enjoy! Dan As chosen by our Survey submissions.* * all linkable web addresses have reciprocal link. Listed Alphabetically. =20 =20 http://www.agedwards.com/=20 http://www.bigcharts.com/=20 http://www.bloomberg.com/=20 http://www.briefing.com/=20 http://cbs.marketwatch.com/=20 http://www.cnbc.com/=20 http://www.cnnfn.com/=20 http://www.dailystocks.com/=20 http://www.datek.com/=20 http://www.daytraders.com/=20 http://www.dbc.com/=20 http://www.discoverbrokerage.com/=20 http://www.dljdirect.com/=20 http://www.doh.com/=20 http://www.etrade.com/=20 http://www.fidelity.com/=20 http://www.flash.net/~hesler=20 http://www.fool.com/=20 http://www.hoovers.com/=20 http://www.iionline.com/=20 http://www.investools.com/=20 http://investor.msn.com/=20 http://www.investorama.com/=20 http://www.investorguide.com/=20 http://www.lowrisk.com/=20 http://www.marketguide.com/=20 http://www.merrill-lynch.com/=20 http://www.moneynet.com/=20 http://www.morningstar.net/=20 http://www.nasdaq.com/=20 http://www.prars.com/=20 http://www.qfn.com/=20 http://www.quote.com/=20 http://www.researchmag.com/=20 http://www.schwab.com/=20 http://www.smartmoney.com/=20 http://www.stockmaster.com/=20 http://www.stockresearch.com/=20 http://www.stocksite.com/=20 http://www.stocksmart.com/=20 http://www.stockwiz.com/=20 http://www.taylortrader.com/=20 http://www.techstocks.com/=20 http://www.thestreet.com/=20 http://www.vectorvest.com/=20 http://www.wadecook.com/=20 http://www.wallstreetcity.com/=20 http://www.waterhouse.com/=20 http://www.wsrn.com/=20 http://www.zacks.com=20 Other Nominated Sites... =20 http://www.aaii.com/=20 http://www.ameritrade.com/=20 http://www.amex.com/=20 http://www.better-investing.org/=20 http://www.bulltrade.com/=20 http://www.businessweek.com/=20 http://www.cboe.com/=20 http://www.cbs.com/=20 http://www.chicagostockex.com/=20 http://www.dailyrocket.com/=20 http://www.edgar-online.com/=20 http://www.equis.com/=20 http://www.financialweb.com/=20 http://www1.firstcall.com/=20 http://www.forbes.com/=20 http://www.fortune.com/=20 http://www.freeedgar.com/=20 http://www.futuresuperstock.com/=20 http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/=20 http://www.hh-club.com/=20 http://www.investorlinks.com/=20 http://www.ipocentral.com/=20 http://www.iqc.com/=20 http://www.jackm.com/=20 http://www.marketplayer.com/=20 http://members.aol.com/baccom=20 http://www.money.com/=20 http://www.msnbc.com/=20 http://www.napeague.com/=20 http://www.natcorp.com/ir/finance.html=20 http://www.netpicks.com/=20 http://www.netquo.com/=20 http://www.netstockdirect.com/=20 http://www.nyse.com/=20 http://www.pcquote.com/=20 http://www.pitbull.com/=20 http://www.pointcast.com/=20 http://www.pristine.com/=20 http://www.prodigy.com/=20 http://www.puls.net/=20 http://www.ragingbull.com/=20 http://www.russreports.com/=20 http://www.stockfever.com/=20 http://www.stockpicks.com/=20 http://www.stockscreener.com/=20 http://www.stockselector.com/=20 http://www.stocktools.com/=20 http://www.street.com/=20 http://www.suretrade.com/=20 http://www.thewebinvestor.com/=20 http://www.tradepbs.com/=20 http://www.trendtrader.com/=20 http://www.valueline.com/=20 http://www.worth.com/=20 musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 15 Sep 1998 10:31:20 -0400 Dan- You should be able to find beta under Fundamentals at the WSRN.COM site and probably at other sites that list fundamentals such as Yahoo!. Joe jungbluth.joe@oscsystems.com musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) on 09/15/98 09:44:40 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: (bcc: Joe Jungbluth/OrbMD) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote: :If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list :of the top 50, according to someone. : : : : :http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html Cool. Maybe I can find beta at one of these. Dan "Enough, or too much." -- Wm Blake musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 15 Sep 1998 09:08:28 +0200 At 05:10 AM 15-09-98 GMT, you wrote: >On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: > >:Johan, >: >:>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site. >: >:Would you care to post. >: >:Thanks, >: >:Deepak > >I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am >registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the >myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above. > >Dan >musicant@autobahn.org Dan, The are among the most recent posts. The subject title is WON's follow-through method (or something like that). Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM Date: 15 Sep 1998 15:09:02 GMT On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:08:28 +0200, you wrote: :At 05:10 AM 15-09-98 GMT, you wrote: :>On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote: :> :>:Johan, :>: :>:>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards = chat :site. :>: :>:Would you care to post. :>: :>:Thanks, :>: :>:Deepak :> :>I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am :>registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the :>myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above. :> :>Dan :>musicant@autobahn.org : : :Dan, : :The are among the most recent posts. The subject title is WON's :follow-through method (or something like that). : : : :Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. : : I went to the site and it said I had 280 unread messages, and they started 7/30/98 and couldn't seem to get the recent ones. Therefore, I marked all messages as read, so when I next go I'll get new stuff (as of last night). Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 16 Sep 1998 00:29:24 +1200 There is an excellent report on the US equity market located at http://www.cme.com/market/equity/outlook3/stk998cme.html Highligted below are my thoughts on some of the selected passages: There = is a lot of money currently sitting on the sidelines, that is waiting to go back into equities once the market consolidates. It is still evident tha= t that sector rotation is with the defensive stocks. If the wild market gyrations over the last couple of weeks slowly dissipated, then we could start to see some of this money flow back into the market. If Latin Ameri= ca could go "under" soon, then I imagine all the world "bad news" is out! Money that was being invested regularly by US investor's on a yearly or monthly basis in emerging markets, could possibly be switched back into t= he USA market. Perception that the USA is a safer place to invest. I woul= d not be investing in Latin America at the present time. When those countri= es are being forced to devalue their currencies and the "double whammy" affect of their stock markets sliding even further downward. The hedge fu= nds that are supposely resistant to "world fluctuations" have not stood up to some of these tests. I aware of at least a dozen hedge funds, not just losing money "big time" but ultimately going broke. The complexity or the chaos of the market has not been formulated into some of their computer programs. Market Breadth The market's advance earlier this year was characterized by a relatively narrow surge in the largest of the large-cap stocks (i.e., Microsoft, Del= l Computer, Lucent Technologies, Schering-Plough) while the rest of the mar= ket lagged or even fell. For example, while the S&P 500 peaked in July, the broader Russell 2000 crested in late April and was down 31.4% from that h= igh at the end of August at a 1-1/3 year low. The more recent correction in t= he S&P 500 and the Dow has only driven home what most investors already knew= =97 the broader market and thus many investors=92 portfolios, have been perfo= rming worse than the returns in the headline Dow and S&P 500 indexes would indicate. Breadth started faltering at the beginning of the correction in July and = has since worsened. The main measure of breadth, the advance/decline line, peaked in the beginning of April and has since trended lower, indicating that more issues on the NYSE are falling than are rising. The advance/decline volume line made a high in July that coincided with the market's peak and has since fallen, indicating that on balance, more volu= me is flowing into declining shares. The percentage of individual tocks abov= e their 200-day averages fell to a 7-year low of 19% in August where it was down from 85% in October 1997. The S&P 500 also closed below its 200-day moving average in August and stayed there for the first time in two years. Mutual Fund Flows Monthly stock mutual fund inflows got off to a slow start in 1998 and the= n accelerated to a 13-month peak of $26.5 billion in the month of April. Si= nce then, however, the pace of mutual fund inflows has been slowing. May saw = a total of $19.3 billion arrive in mutual fund coffers according to data fr= om the Investment Company Institute while June and July saw inflows of $19.2 and $16.5 billion, respectively. In August, capital inflows then collapse= d and generous estimates indicate that somewhere just above $1 billion flow= ed into mutual fund accounts, the lowest amount seen since January of 1991. Individual investors apparently are sensitive to the ups and downs of the stock market and the August data suggests that they can=92t be counted on= to support a sagging market. Instead, money market mutual funds assets have swollen to a record $1.26 trillion as investors seek safety. Sentiment The correction that is taking place in the stock market has taken a toll = on investor sentiment which has fallen sharply to fairly oversold levels. Investment advisor sentiment, as measured by the Investors Intelligence newsletter, recently fell to a 1-year low of 40.4% which was the fifth consecutive weekly decline following six straight weekly increases. The decline in investor sentiment could be a positive sign for bulls as it ha= s fallen fairly far below the 1-3/4 year high of 54.6% which was posted dur= ing the week of April 17. In fact, the previous three times that bullish sentiment has fallen below 45% have been propitious times to own stocks. Another measurement of sentiment, the 10-day average of the call/put volu= me ratio on the OEX options contract, has fallen over the past 1-1/2 months after posting a 10-month high of 1.8 (i.e. there were 1.8 calls traded fo= r every put) on July 15. Most recently, the ratio fell to a 2-year low belo= w 1.2 where it was in oversold territory. While these two indicators can=92= t be used individually to make buy/sell decisions, they are showing signs that sentiment has reached oversold levels, a bullish indicator for stock pric= es. Small Cap Stocks The small-capitalization stocks (companies with a market caps of $1 billi= on or less) have been underperforming their large-cap brethren for all of 19= 98 and on average are down sharply from their all-time highs. The Russell 20= 00, an index of small-cap stocks with an average market cap of $400 million, = is down 22.7% for the year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 1.3% loss over = the same period. The small-cap stocks are in the midst of a 31.4% correction that followed the posting of an all-time high in the Russell 2000 of 492.= 28 (April 22). Not only have the small-caps been leading the rest of the stock market lo= wer over the past four months but they were also underperforming before the correction got underway. While small-cap stocks outperformed the large-ca= ps through most of the 1980s and early 1990s, since 1993 the large-cap stock= s have taken over the leadership role. Since the start of 1995, the Russell 2000 has delivered an annualized gain of 10.6% (12.1% with dividends reinvested in the index) compared to the S&P 500's annualized gain of 24.= 6% (27% with dividends reinvested). The small-capitalization stocks (companies with a market caps of $1 billi= on or less) have been underperforming their large-cap brethren for all of 19= 98 and on average are down sharply from their all-time highs. The Russell 20= 00, an index of small-cap stocks with an average market cap of $400 million, = is down 22.7% for the year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 1.3% loss over = the same period. The small-cap stocks are in the midst of a 31.4% correction that followed the posting of an all-time high in the Russell 2000 of 492.= 28 (April 22). Not only have the small-caps been leading the rest of the stock market lo= wer over the past four months but they were also underperforming before the correction got underway. While small-cap stocks outperformed the large-ca= ps through most of the 1980s and early 1990s, since 1993 the large-cap stock= s have taken over the leadership role. Since the start of 1995, the Russell 2000 has delivered an annualized gain of 10.6% (12.1% with dividends reinvested in the index) compared to the S&P 500's annualized gain of 24.= 6% (27% with dividends reinvested). The sharp sell-off in the Russell 2000 would appear to go against conventional wisdom. The Asian economic crisis should theoretically have less of an impact on the earnings of small companies who make most of the= ir sales domestically. Along those same lines, the sustained strength in the dollar should also have less impact on smaller companies compared to larg= e multi-national firms who derive a higher portion of their earnings in depreciating foreign currencies. Despite those factors, the Russell 2000 = has continued to fall. The main reason that the small-caps are lagging may be that the sector has simply fallen out of favor with individual investors. Participation by small investors has been focussed on the largest of the = big stocks with S&P 500 index and other large-cap mutual funds seeing the majority of fund inflows. Investors are also seeking the perceived safety= of companies with proven earnings histories. Global Performance Morgan Stanley=92s index of emerging stock markets has fallen 41% in the = last six months and is now back to where it stood at the start of 1991. Almost eight years of gains have been totally erased. Investors are reevaluating the risk of investing in emerging markets given the possibility of contin= ued financial sector instability and the increased reluctance by the industrialized nations to provide bailouts. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HGS Forum Date: 15 Sep 1998 08:57:11 -0700 (PDT) <> I had to take the opportunity to replace that subject title. It was driving me crazy :) If you've marked the messages as read, you can still go through them manually. Just select the HGS forum then click "Bottom". Then select "Follow Through Day Concept" from 9/8. There will be around eight posts. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:09:03 -0400 Stocks and Commodities did an in depth article on the cup and handle that I found interesting and very similar to WON's article in Monday's IBD(just in case you missed it). One point was that buying a c&h pattern before it breaks out or with to little volume is very perilous and probably a good shorting situation. The other points I found interesting which are probably buried in WON's book is that the top of the right side of the cup is lower than the left side and that the pivot point is 1/8 a point above this with a breakout of 50% increase in volume. Not a new high but up to 10% lower. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] PGEX: trouble Date: 15 Sep 1998 10:48:06 -0700 This one is on my watch list - have seen it bantered about here before. Watch out below! Off almost 5 right now. Herb on TheStreet: Is Pacific Gateway Playing a Shell Game with Investors? The company in question: Pacific Gateway (PGEX:Nasdaq), whose main business is selling time on foreign long-distance networks to telephone companies. The analyst: PaineWebber's Eric Strumingher, who recently boosted his rating on Pacific Gateway to a buy from hold, while at the same time cutting his estimates. Usually analysts lower their rating when they cut estimates. But not Strumingher, who justified the change by writing in a report that he believes investors will "recognize the value in this investment and will move to EBITDA-based valuations from earnings-based valuations." For the entire story: http://micro.sitespecific.com/Street/redirect.2q.cgi?banner=herbib.60.123 Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dean Edwards Subject: [CANSLIM] INVESTMENT ADVICE - NonCANSLIM Date: 16 Sep 1998 8:42:13 "Mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself, but talent instantly recognises genius." - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle William O'Neil has been quoted as saying, that he has read hundreds of books on investing. From his own personal library collection, he believes not many of them are very good. However, he ranks Bernard Baruch's autobiography as one of his top ten for investment books. Here is an article below that highlights some of his thoughts. IMMORTAL INVESTMENT ADVICE FROM BERNARD BARUCH Of all those who made their marks on Wall Street, few commanded more respect and admiration than Bernard Baruch did. In his time, he made millions, advised U.S. presidents, and was a primary source for quotes about the great events of his day. Baruch died in 1965 at the age of 94; but his thinking which enabled him to amass a fortune still has relevance today. The following excerpts are taken from a Bottom Line Personal (August 1, 1997) article outlining Baruch's thoughts on investing. We believe this advice is particularly relevant to today's existing conditions in the stock market. "Hold firm opinions, but be open to changing them when another outcome is inevitable. Stubbornness as to opinions must be entirely eliminated. But when you decide, act promptly. Don't wait to see what the market will do." It was precisely this flexibility that saved Baruch in the Crash of 1929. It was always thought that Baruch sold his stocks when the market was at its high in 1929, thus avoiding the big crash in October. We know now that this story was nothing but a myth. In fact, Baruch was a committed bull in 1929, believing that a new economic age had arrived (sound familiar?). The financier was actually still heavily invested when the market collapsed. Despite his commitment to stocks, Baruch sold most of his holdings while other investors, believing that a recovery was around the bend, held on. Once he realized he was wrong, Baruch turned defensive and cut his losses. Result: While Baruch didn't escape unscathed his fortune fell from about $25 million to about $16 million he experienced a decline of only 36% while the overall market plummeted by more than 80% by 1932. "Take risks, but put prudence ahead of profits." Baruch was every inch a speculator, with an enormous tolerance for risk. After he made his first million on Wall Street, by the age of 30, he had more than enough on which to live comfortably. Yet he chose to put that million at risk to make a second million and a third million until his fortune amounted to roughly $25 million. For all his willingness to take risks, Baruch was always wise enough to know when it was time to settle for a reasonable profit instead of holding out for the last dollar. Example: Baruch's greatest investment success was in a mining company called Texas Gulf Sulphur Co. He invested when it was a small company and watched its fortunes rise. When he sold his stake in 1926, he walked off with a profit of between $6 million and $8 million. That was a substantial profit, yet it was only a fraction of what he would have earned if he had waited a few years longer. But Baruch expressed no regrets about selling too soon. His advice, as spelled out in a memo written in 1930, was, "Become more humble as the market goes your way. It is not prudent to wait for the top of the market too sell, it is better to sell "too soon." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article Date: 15 Sep 1998 20:41:06 -0700 (PDT) <> Unfortunately, a breakout on a 50% increase in volume is likely to blow through that 1/8 point in seconds. In fact, the stock may already be extended before you even know the breakout has occurred (assuming it didn't take place before the market even opened). If you don't want to buy the handle before the breakout, it might be prudent to wait till the handle is tested rather than buy too far into the breakout. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying Ex-Momentum Stocks Date: 15 Sep 1998 21:12:24 -0700 (PDT) Ran across a very interesting two-part article on when and if and how to buy a trashed momentum stock. http://www.pathfinder.com/money/earnings/mstory3.html --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI Date: 16 Sep 1998 00:29:26 EDT In a message dated 9/15/98 12:32:08 AM Eastern Daylight Time, jo@koyote.com writes: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI Date: 9/15/98 12:32:08 AM Eastern Daylight Time From: jo@koyote.com (Joe Scott) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com no volume,, only 1,961K average is 1.729K just up on a good day.. looks to me anyway, joe >> good earnings!! good company to own. dont know a thing joe Surindra - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It Date: 15 Sep 1998 21:28:35 -0700 (PDT) OSTE looks like it might be getting ready to do something. Oddly enough, it's done almost the exact opposite of the market all year. And there appears to be an ascending right triangle (ooo). As for a potential short, LHSG seems to be choking. Comments? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Part Two - Dave Cameron Date: 16 Sep 1998 06:37:53 -0400 > Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500 > From: Dave Cameron > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM > > Jeffry, old man, > > With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see > Part Two. How many parts are there? Is this a mini-series? Haven't the foggiest what you are talking about, Dave. Posted a comment/question to Tom W. under a heading which already existed, he responded...that's that. Old Man. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:46:55 -0500 (CDT) Thanks, Dan Musicant. Will peruse. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 50 Financial Sites Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:49:42 -0500 (CDT) Thanks, Patrick, for the site. Will peruse. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article Date: 16 Sep 1998 08:56:49 -0400 DB, How do you feel about the option of buying on having a buy stop limit so that you have a shot at it and then checking volume(or if your watching check volume and guess) the limit obviously protects you from big gaps. Peter ---------- > From: dbphoenix > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article > Date: Tuesday, September 15, 1998 11:41 PM > > < WON's > book is that the top of the right side of the cup is lower than the left > side and that the pivot point is 1/8 a point above this with a > breakout of > 50% increase in volume.>> > > Unfortunately, a breakout on a 50% increase in volume is likely to > blow through that 1/8 point in seconds. In fact, the stock may > already be extended before you even know the breakout has occurred > (assuming it didn't take place before the market even opened). If you > don't want to buy the handle before the breakout, it might be prudent > to wait till the handle is tested rather than buy too far into the > breakout. > > --Db > > > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 16 Sep 1998 08:08:12 -0500 (CDT) Dean Edwards, Excellent post. Much needed by me and possibly others. Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best, besides Baruch's autobiography? Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article Date: 16 Sep 1998 06:16:34 -0700 (PDT) <> Depends on how much service your broker is willing or able to provide. If you can tell him at what point you want to buy on what kind of volume, this is a plan that several people I correspond with have suggested and/or use. But if you like the volume pattern in the handle, you can also take a partial position with a tight sell-stop. I didn't see the IBD article, but if the stock has retraced at least half its descent and is within 10-15% of the left rim and is in a minimum three-week handle, I don't see the handle as particularly perilous if the wind is at your back. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It Date: 16 Sep 1998 09:23:21 -0400 Db-- Agreed LHSG looks like a beautiful short to me based on its chart. It formed a double top, broke below the 50dma, bounced from a break below the 200dma, and is now breaking lower after hitting the 50dma from the underside. Also 50dma is now in a downtrend. Note well, all of the above is from someone with almost no experience in shorting. But I have done a bit of thinking about what a chart should look like and this one seems like the textbook. OSTE, trying to move up but handle seems too low in "cup". Needs to move up 15% from here before threatening new high ground. I think it needs a while to finish out its formation. Too low in the formation, even for one of my "low level breakouts". Although it is on my "close" watchlist (ie. nearly ready). Best Regards, Craig At 09:28 PM 9/15/98 -0700, you wrote: > > >OSTE looks like it might be getting ready to do something. Oddly >enough, it's done almost the exact opposite of the market all year. >And there appears to be an ascending right triangle (ooo). > >As for a potential short, LHSG seems to be choking. Comments? > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:05:06 -0700 (PDT) <> Depends on where you place the left rim of the cup, if this is a cup. Before I left AOL, there was some discussion about what constitutes the "old high", that is, whether it is an all-time high, 52-week high, or YTD high. Hardly anyone advanced the case of the all-time high, particularly if it was years in the past. But there was an interesting debate between the 52-week and YTD advocates, the latter proposing that--largely due to tax-selling--much of the overhead supply may no longer be there if the high was before January. In the case of OSTE, this would put the "high" at 27.5, not 32.5. There are also the 200 and 50d MAs to consider. I'm also not particularly crazy about the slope in July, but I do like that selling climax at the bottom. As far as the volume pattern goes, particularly the up volume and the volume in the handle, it looks much better on a weekly chart. Food for thought. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It Date: 16 Sep 1998 10:15:25 -0400 Db- At 07:05 AM 9/16/98 -0700, you wrote: >In the >case of OSTE, this would put the "high" at 27.5, not 32.5. I agree, I would be inclined to buy a breakout at 27.5 with 150%adv. >I'm also not particularly crazy about the slope in July, but I do like >that selling climax at the bottom. As far as the volume pattern goes, >particularly the up volume and the volume in the handle, it looks much >better on a weekly chart. Agree completely. Nice selling climax. Weekly volume looks very constructive. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results Date: 15 Sep 1998 19:40:41 -0700 Here's my results based on August data. They look best in HTML; I will not send in text anymore. I ignored shares out - only two biggies cut the mustard anyway. The rest of the criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation of HTMMIS to include D/E and ROE.



COMPANYTickExchIndustryTREND EPGRQEPS 0/-4QEPS -1/-524WK PCHG%SHARES OUT% INSTITUT% INSIDERS20D AVEVOLQEPS -2/-6QEPS -2/-7ROED/EquityEPS GR %0Q %-1Q %24wk %    GRSRSTotal Score
   Thq Inc        THQI      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE199164617-311541732222334254510.098%92%99%85%85%92%
   Symix Systems  SYMX      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE9238125362338597553333200.094%68%88%88%90%85%
   Timberline SoftTMBS      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE5862233-117291745380133250460.085%78%95%79%76%83%
   Gemstar Intl   GMSTF     NSDQ  ELEC PRODS-MISC66443794736327015155601900620.088%71%62%90%93%81%
   Anchor Gaming  SLOT      NSDQ  LEISURE&REC/GMG4682111-15134255145305100105360.088%88%88%67%69%80%
   Jack Henry AsscJKHY      NSDQ  COMP-INTEGT SYS326129241935281392153015350.065%77%57%95%97%78%
   Paychex Inc    PAYX      NSDQ  COMP-SERVICES36343314163581172588538350.071%66%59%92%95%76%
   First Years IncKIDD      NSDQ  CON PRD-MISC DISCREC432838-15104820515504826200.087%63%71%68%70%72%
   Labor Ready IncLBOR      NSDQ  BUS SVCS47145126-3628401616767752075141170.176%96%92%41%35%68%
   Peoplesoft Inc PSFT      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE806786-382275724515926188109320.092%79%79%47%32%66%
   Pac Gateway ExcPGEX      NSDQ  UTIL-TELEPHONE1395669-391942222910154642200.2100%90%94%13%30%65%
   Imperial Bcp   IMP       NYSE  BANKS-WEST1055060-373943141158956564180.999%89%91%12%32%65%
   Buckle Inc     BKE       NYSE  RETAIL-APP/SHOE3370113-36222935720806860270.082%83%90%30%35%64%
   Rexall Sundown RXSD      NSDQ  MED-DRUGS599360-5272484974598573260.087%89%80%27%15%60%
   Fastenal       FAST      NSDQ  BLDG PRD-RT/WHL343243-353845274183552930280.083%69%74%32%36%59%


Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 17 Sep 1998 03:33:31 +1200 Some of the the books that O'Neil has mentioned and that I have commited to memory as having read them, for that reason: The Battle for Investment Survival by Gerald M. Loeb One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Jesse LeFevere Read every book by traders to study where they lost money. You will learn nothing relevant from their profits. (the markets adjust). You will learn from their losses. It never ceases to amaze me when someone comes forward and claims they have discover a new "magic trading formula" indicator for the stock market. The best thing you can do, is keep it to yourself! Just an interesting footnote: A lot of people think that Jesse LeFevere was just a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore. According to the book "Crashes" it is not! Quoting the author's book: "My good friend J.M had seen it all. He was one of the old-timers, who had operated in the Chicago grain 'pits' with Jesse Livermore. In his breast pocket J.M always carried a small book called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The author was Jesse LeFevere, who became a close friend of Jesse Livermore's, and the book was a tribute to Livermore and his biography. Inside J.M's copy was the inscription: " To John, the best trader I have ever known.' It was signed Jesse L. Livermore' An example of the market wisdom of this trader. Author: "You don't seem to have entered the price you paid for those shares in your book. Or when.' JM: 'No! Never, never! As soon as I buy a share, I try to forget what I paid for it. The last thing in the world I ever want to do is think about what I paid for these things. If I do, it might influence my judgement. The stock market isn't interested in what I paid for those shares. The only thing that counts is how the shares are behaving now!" "There are many who claim years of experience. In most cases those years of experience represent little more than a few months experience repeated again and again over the years. Twenty years experience equal to one years experience repeated twenty times is par for the course." What I'm trying to illustrate is that investment books are produced to fool the public. There is another book that escapes me for the moment but its called something like "How I made a Million Dollars in the Stock Market" well just on that title alone, it would sell like hot cakes. I am now expressing my opinion. This fraud/con man wrote a book to fool the masses! Don't believe everything you read on the market. Like the stock market its a jungle out there. The role of the public is to be eaten. -----Original Message----- >Dean Edwards, > >Excellent post. Much needed by me and possibly >others. > >Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best, >besides Baruch's autobiography? > >Mary Keener > > > > > > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results Date: 13 Sep 1998 09:08:54 -0700 Here's my results based on August data. They look best in HTML; I will not send in text anymore. I ignored shares out - only two biggies cut the mustard anyway. The rest of the criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation of HTMMIS to include D/E and ROE.



COMPANYTickExchIndustryTREND EPGRQEPS 0/-4QEPS -1/-524WK PCHG%SHARES OUT% INSTITUT% INSIDERS20D AVEVOLQEPS -2/-6QEPS -2/-7ROED/EquityEPS GR %0Q %-1Q %24wk %    GRSRSTotal Score
   Thq Inc        THQI      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE199164617-311541732222334254510.098%92%99%85%85%92%
   Symix Systems  SYMX      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE9238125362338597553333200.094%68%88%88%90%85%
   Timberline SoftTMBS      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE5862233-117291745380133250460.085%78%95%79%76%83%
   Gemstar Intl   GMSTF     NSDQ  ELEC PRODS-MISC66443794736327015155601900620.088%71%62%90%93%81%
   Anchor Gaming  SLOT      NSDQ  LEISURE&REC/GMG4682111-15134255145305100105360.088%88%88%67%69%80%
   Jack Henry AsscJKHY      NSDQ  COMP-INTEGT SYS326129241935281392153015350.065%77%57%95%97%78%
   Paychex Inc    PAYX      NSDQ  COMP-SERVICES36343314163581172588538350.071%66%59%92%95%76%
   First Years IncKIDD      NSDQ  CON PRD-MISC DISCREC432838-15104820515504826200.087%63%71%68%70%72%
   Labor Ready IncLBOR      NSDQ  BUS SVCS47145126-3628401616767752075141170.176%96%92%41%35%68%
   Peoplesoft Inc PSFT      NSDQ  COMP-SOFTWARE806786-382275724515926188109320.092%79%79%47%32%66%
   Pac Gateway ExcPGEX      NSDQ  UTIL-TELEPHONE1395669-391942222910154642200.2100%90%94%13%30%65%
   Imperial Bcp   IMP       NYSE  BANKS-WEST1055060-373943141158956564180.999%89%91%12%32%65%
   Buckle Inc     BKE       NYSE  RETAIL-APP/SHOE3370113-36222935720806860270.082%83%90%30%35%64%
   Rexall Sundown RXSD      NSDQ  MED-DRUGS599360-5272484974598573260.087%89%80%27%15%60%
   Fastenal       FAST      NSDQ  BLDG PRD-RT/WHL343243-353845274183552930280.083%69%74%32%36%59%


Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 16 Sep 1998 19:06:34 +0200 >What I'm trying to illustrate is that investment books are produced to fool >the public. >There is another book that escapes me for the moment but its called >something like "How I made a Million Dollars in the Stock Market" well just >on that title alone, it would sell like hot cakes. I am now expressing my >opinion. This fraud/con man wrote a book to fool the masses! Don't believe >everything you read on the market. Like the stock >market its a jungle out there. The role of the public is to be eaten. 'How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market' is the title of an excellent book written by Nicolas Darvas. When I read the book I recognized several 'rules' that are also found in WON's book. Since Darvas' book is older than WON's, I assume O'Neil got these ideas from Darvas. Here's William O'Neil's recommended reading list: How To Make Money In Stocks - William O'Neil The Battle For Investment Survival - G.M. Loeb Tape Reading And Market Tactics - H. Neill How To Trade In Stocks - J. Livermore Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator - E. Lefevre The Sophisticated Investor - Burton Crane How I Made Two Million Dollars In The Stock Market - N. Darvas My Own Story - Bernard Baruch One Up On Wall Street - Peter Lynch How To Buy Stocks - Louis Engel Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results Date: 16 Sep 1998 11:31:40 -0600 Canslim'ers, I just reposted Tim Fisher's message. I think this one I reposted is formatted as Tim desire's it -- at least it worked for me when I received the message from the canslim list software. Tim has made a herculean effort to share this information with the group. Usually, I don't permit HTML postings to the group. However, I am going to experiment a bit. I suspect that most of you non-digest subscribers will be able to read Tim's message just fine. However, I also suspect that non of you digest readers will be able to read it. I will appreaciate any feed-back. If Tim's message appears badly formated to you, try loading the following URL in your browser: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/fisher.html Best Regards, Jeff - canslim list admin/owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 16 Sep 1998 20:46:17 -0800 > Reminiscences of a Stock Operator > by Jesse LeFevere Actually, its by Edwin Lefevre. > Just an interesting footnote: A lot of people think that Jesse LeFevere > was just a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore. According to the book "Crashes" > it is not! I think it is generally agreed that Reminiscences... is about Jesse Livermore. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: How far back is the "high" (was Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It) Date: 16 Sep 1998 21:07:33 -0400 FWIW, the only high I subscribe to or consider is the 52 wk high. Several reasons: every computer system I have ever used as a broker also uses this, thus a client asking what is the high will be given the 52 wk high as an answer; second, who would trust a YTD high in Feb, Mar, or even April given the volatility and seasonality of that period; third, most websites I have used online also use 12 months vs any other time period; fourth, if the latest high was achieved during the previous fall, just before the tax related selling occurred, it still says something about the stock's strength, and I wouldn't want to disregard that until I got to a comparative period, which would be 12 months later. Likewise, any high past a year ago is just too historic for me to be worried about. How many investors in this mkt do you know that are holding on to most of their growing stocks, or volatile ones, for more than a year? In this climate, a lot can happen to a company's earnings and sales in much less than a year, forget several years. As I said, FWIW. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Before I left AOL, there was some discussion about what constitutes >the "old high", that is, whether it is an all-time high, 52-week high, >or YTD high. Hardly anyone advanced the case of the all-time high, >particularly if it was years in the past. But there was an >interesting debate between the 52-week and YTD advocates, the latter >proposing that--largely due to tax-selling--much of the overhead >supply may no longer be there if the high was before January - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day and Futures trading Date: 16 Sep 1998 13:52:21 +0200 Jeffry, Yes, please keep me updated on your futures trading if you'd like. I'd like to follow your 'moves' re: this futures trading to get an idea about how to trade futures. What the costs are, when to buy, when to sell. If you'd rather not tell me, no big deal. I'd understand. Your combination of follow-through day method, index futures (no more stock picking) fascinates me, so that's why I'm interested. Best Regards, -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Irrelevant Technical Mumbo Jumbo Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:14:47 -0400 DJIA 200 SMA: 8555.04 50 SMA: 8564.49 A difference of basically 14 points. Yesterdays difference 31 points. The DJIA 50 SMA is coming down with increasing haste. The DJIA 50 SMA will cross negatively below the 200 SMA today. It will take some time to work this one off. I may have to become a daytrader to find opportunities here! :-) Last time we had the pleasure of the 50 trading beneath the 200 was back in 1994. With the benefit of hindsight, not a bad long term buying opportunity. This is not to imply that the markets repeat themselves in any way. FWIW Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 17 Sep 1998 07:59:28 -0500 (CDT) Dean Edwards, Have read about Jesse Livermore several times. He is my ideal investor - humble, sharp, market-wise, honest and diligent, un-complicated in his method with a "feel" that was uncanny. "There are many who claim years of experience. In most cases those years of experience represent little more than a few months experience repeated again and again over the years. Twenty years experience equal to one years experience repeated twenty times is par for the course." The above quote is most telling and just another way of viewing market experience. It isn't so much the years behind you that's important as what you have learned from those years that makes the difference. Sometimes, a novice can be very successful depending upon their approach and how they see themselves both as people and then as market watchers. I recall Db posting something once that had to do with the market and the psychology of the individual - character, influences both internal and external, etc. Excellent and true. This is what I find so challenging about trading. It isn't just numbers and making "instant" "quick" money. It's also about economics, psychology, history, politics, education. Two months ago, I had to stop trading. I found myself, once again, getting "caught up" in the daily moves of the stock prices I was trading. My emotions were ruling my decisions to the point that my account was tilting towards the negative. Now I'm paper trading, forcing myself to calm down, be patient, study the charts, get back to O'Neil and Livermore, observe, watch - all with the goal of simplifying, following the market with the best indicators (which I'm still trying to figure out), not the analysts, the forecasters, the "star" experts, "Zen" masters and others. Apologize for this long post, but maybe there are others out there who have gone off on a tangent, gotten discouraged and even contemplated quitting. Obviously, individual investing isn't for everyone and knowing you aren't the type is perceptive, however, to become good at something requires some time, failure and objectivity. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - nonCANSLIM Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:10:20 -0500 (CDT) Johan Van Houtven, As with Dean Edwards, the title "How I Made a Million Dollars...." would have turned me off. Just goes to show that you can't judge by title, however hard that may be. Thanks for enlightening me. It's on my list. And thanks for the list. Noted. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part Two - Dave Cameron Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:26:03 -0500 Jeffry White wrote: > > > Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500 > > From: Dave Cameron > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM > > > > Jeffry, old man, > > > > With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see > > Part Two. How many parts are there? Is this a mini-series? > > Haven't the foggiest what you are talking about, Dave. Posted a > comment/question to Tom W. under a heading which already existed, he > responded...that's that. That's because you're slippin' in your old age. The attached heading implies there might be a Part 3, Part 4, and Part 5.... I guess its really Tom's mini-series then. But, actually, when I logged in there were about 10 messages in a row with the subject line: "Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM" Yours was the first of the line; so I figured its a popular start to a potential mini-series. Geez, if you have to explain a joke - it loses its effectiveness! Dave C. > > Old Man. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: [CANSLIM] WON's AOL chat on 9/1 Date: 17 Sep 1998 11:46:54 -0700 Has this been posted already? I just saw it in DGO. http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/aolchat.htm Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article Date: 17 Sep 1998 16:46:22 -0400 A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that provides an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns. Has anyone tried to code this algorithm? What packages do you think could implement the scan? I have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course Excel, but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now. Thanks, Joe jungbluth.joe@oscsystems.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: [CANSLIM] 4 up days Date: 17 Sep 1998 20:46:15 -0700 I thought I sent this yesterday, but it was still laying around... Vic Sperandeo in Trader Vic II says that 4 up-days in a row show the trend has changed. Do you think we have to wait for the Dow to get back above the 200dma or 50dma before it's safe? I've been planning to wait for individual stocks to get back above their 200 and 50-dma's before considering them, but I wonder if the same applies to the indexes. I'm losing patience. Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 17 Sep 1998 21:54:45 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 17 Sep 1998 07:59:28 -0500 (CDT) Had a couple of hopefully pertinent comments on your remarks - > Have read about Jesse Livermore several > times. He is my ideal investor - humble, > sharp, market-wise, honest and diligent, > un-complicated in his method with a > "feel" that was uncanny. One thing to remember about Livermore, which tells you something about being a full time investor and the dangers for even an experienced trader, is that he committed suicide. Can't remember the details, think it was during one of the periods where he was broke. > Two months ago, I had to stop trading. I found > myself, once again, getting "caught up" in the > daily moves of the stock prices I was trading. > My emotions were ruling my decisions to the point > that my account was tilting towards the negative. > Now I'm paper trading, forcing myself to calm > down, be patient, study the charts, get back to I've always remembered one of Darvas's experiences related in "How I Made Two Million....". He had been trading from Europe, where he only had weekly closing prices. He returned to NY, started listening to all the brokers and reading the news, and he started losing money. I had to cut himself off from all the market opinons and rumors he was hearing to get back on the profitable side. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 4 up days Date: 18 Sep 1998 05:01:28 GMT On Thu, 17 Sep 1998 20:46:15 -0700, you wrote: :I thought I sent this yesterday, but it was still laying around... : :Vic Sperandeo in Trader Vic II says that 4 up-days in a row show the = trend=20 :has changed. Do you think we have to wait for the Dow to get back above = the=20 :200dma or 50dma before it's safe? I've been planning to wait for = individual=20 :stocks to get back above their 200 and 50-dma's before considering them,= =20 :but I wonder if the same applies to the indexes. : :I'm losing patience. : :Mike :=00=00 : If I were you, I'd hang on to my patience. I think you'll be glad you did. Today saw a sell-off, putting a major punctuation on that 4-up day cycle Vic may have referred to. Myself, I think the downside potential exceeds the upside, at least in the short term. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON's AOL chat on 9/1 Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:00:12 -0400 Mike, Thanks for posting the AOL chat with WON address! Very useful reading. He seems to be saying the bear market may continue for another one to four more months. Makes sense - if for no other reason than this: there are few nice bases out there yet. I also found his comment about leaders emerging over a 13 week period interesting. This agrees with a study I did from one of the steeper corrections a year or so ago (most of the new leadership stocks emerged in the first couple of months in that case). Best Regards, Craig At 11:46 AM 9/17/98 -0700, you wrote: >Has this been posted already? I just saw it in DGO. > >http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/aolchat.htm > >Mike > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:25:32 -0400 The author has a program and a list his email is haikulab@maui.net. I'm still waiting on him to return the message. If your real interested i'd buy a copy of this month Stocks&Commodities. Peter Newell PS might help us to mention your on this list. ---------- > From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article > Date: Thursday, September 17, 1998 4:46 PM > > A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that provides > an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns. Has anyone tried to code > this algorithm? What packages do you think could implement the scan? I > have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course Excel, > but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now. > > Thanks, > > Joe > > jungbluth.joe@oscsystems.com > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] 4 up days Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:09:01 -0500 (CDT) Mike, If you lose your patience, you will lose your money. The two go hand in hand, so hang in there, and get in when it's the right time, not when you want. Yesterday's market indicated that a 4-day waiting period is not infallible. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:20:50 -0500 (CDT) Patrick, You wrote: Yes, I know, and his suicide did make me reflect about the game of investing. His suicide takes nothing away from his sound investment philosophy and practice, though. He may have had a character flaw (don't we all?). Whatever, I still think if you take what is good about someone's approach, put it and yourself in perspective, you can benefit tremendously. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - Mary Date: 18 Sep 1998 10:27:400 -0500 Mary wrote: "Apologize for this long post, but maybe there are others out there who have gone off on a tangent, gotten discouraged and even contemplated quitting." Mary, like you, I've had times where I thought of quitting, but the irony is I've found those breaking points come at both ends of the profit and loss spectrum. Oddly enough, the psychological obstacles to succesful trading (which you quite rightly and admirably seek to contain, I think) appear with equal force on the other end of your pursuits. They call themselves by different names, but they are the self same monsters that lurk within. The greatest game of all is correspondingly the most difficult of all. Best of luck, Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John K." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question Date: 18 Sep 1998 11:06:32 -0400 ". But thousands of people have been using it for ten years now and finding success with it." With thousands of people using it, the method becomes self fulfilling to an extent. With all those people searching for the exactly the same fundamentals and chart patterns it is bound to affect the market. The ones who jump on first make the most money, the ones who jump on late may get hit when the whole thing becomes overbought. Also, the markets in the last ten years have been long term trending, with buyin on dips a viable strategy. If the next ten years are more like the 70s, Canslim will not do near as well. John K. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving? Is the market ready to rise? Date: 18 Sep 1998 13:35:28 -0400 I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today. Does this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase? I don't know but please do your own research. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving? Is the market ready to rise? Date: 18 Sep 1998 15:16:16 -0400 Peter Newell wrote: > I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today. Does > this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase? I don't know > but please do your own research. It must mean we are flirting with a bear market, you're not as focused onyour market moves as you usually are... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55 Date: 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400 Are the small caps going to lead us back up? Or is this a one day wonder? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving? Is the market Date: 18 Sep 1998 16:13:26 -0400 >you're not as focused onyour market moves as you usually are... Thanks, I was distracted I'm waiting for the new lows to drop off we seem to be bouncing and I'm always afraid of the other shoe dropping ---------- > From: Tom Moulton > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving? Is the market readyto rise? > Date: Friday, September 18, 1998 3:16 PM > > Peter Newell wrote: > > > I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today. Does > > this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase? I don't know > > but please do your own research. > > It must mean we are flirting with a bear market, you're not as focused > onyour market moves as you usually are... > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders and Laggards Date: 18 Sep 1998 16:07:01 -0700 (PDT) Those of you who are still hunting for stocks to watch may find the following page useful. It's the CNBC "Top 100" list. http://www.cnbc.com/moreinfo/980907_top100cat.html --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question Date: 19 Sep 1998 06:05:03 -0700 (PDT) I like your question, because I've been wondering the same thing myself. CANSLIM is evolving. Here's what I've come up with: For one thing, institutional investors have more money and are the "elephants in the bathtub". At the last satellite conference, WON said that he would not lokk at anything trading under 60,000 ADV; he's also upped the trading price again. Look at the NYSE intelligent tables fine print. The price has gone from a minimum of $15 a share to $18 a share. We have to be in the stocks that attract the institutional investor (elephant) for the system to work; WON says that stocks have to be trading enough shares so that the istitutional investors can make their buys in a reasonable time. I see see these details as part of the overall M. WON is spending more time at the conferences and devoting more space in the paper to chart reading and looking for "proper bases" and charts that "look right". I am reading Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Murphy now. He talks about the 'self fullfilling prophecy'. "Even if the self-fullfilling prophecy were of major concern, it would probably be self-correcting in nature. ...traders would rely heavily on charts until their concerted actions started to affect or distort the markets. Once traders realized this was happening, they would either stop using the charts or adjust their trading tactics". He says the same thing is true for institutional investors, although they are a bigger threat 'the possibility of all technicians acting at the same time and in the same way is actually quite remote'. TM > > ". But thousands of people have been using it for ten years now and finding > success with it." > > With thousands of people using it, the method becomes self fulfilling to an > extent. With all those people searching for the exactly the same > fundamentals and chart patterns it is bound to affect the market. The ones > who jump on first make the most money, the ones who jump on late may get hit > when the whole thing becomes overbought. > > Also, the markets in the last ten years have been long term trending, with > buyin on dips a viable strategy. If the next ten years are more like the > 70s, Canslim will not do near as well. > > John K. > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Software Evaluation -TASC Date: 19 Sep 1998 15:45:03 -0700 (PDT) http://www.traders.com/Documentation/Survey/98Survey.html TM ---Peter Newell wrote: > > The author has a program and a list his email is haikulab@maui.net. > > I'm still waiting on him to return the message. If your real interested > i'd buy a copy of this month Stocks&Commodities. > > Peter Newell > > PS might help us to mention your on this list. > > > ---------- > > From: Jungbluth.Joe@oscsystems.com > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article > > Date: Thursday, September 17, 1998 4:46 PM > > > > A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that > provides > > an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns. Has anyone tried to code > > this algorithm? What packages do you think could implement the scan? I > > have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course Excel, > > but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Joe > > > > jungbluth.joe@oscsystems.com > > > > > > > > - > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Cooper From the ATI List [non-canslim] Date: 19 Sep 1998 22:07:08 -0800 Someone posted this to the Omega list. Programmer types here might find some of this interesting, something to backtest, it is very short term stuff. This is from the Jeff Cooper stuff, his initial screen to find stocks to apply these patterns to is for high RS stocks, so this isn't totally non-canslim. I think the syntax is mostly easy to figure out. The only one that might not be is the [] symbol. C[1] would be yesterday's close, range[1] would be yesterday's range, or high - low. ------- Forwarded Message Follows ------- Date forwarded: Sat, 19 Sep 1998 19:49:19 -0700 Date sent: Sat, 19 Sep 1998 21:47:06 -0500 Forwarded by: omega-list@eskimo.com I'm sure that this is not all of them... Cooper 180: 1. Day 1: Close in bottom 25% of daily range. 2. Day 2: Close in top 25% of daily range. 3. Day 2's close is > 10dma and 50dma.. condition1 = C[1] <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]); condition2 = C >= L + (.75 * range); condition3 = C > average(C,10) and C > average(C,50); if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 then buy h + 0.5 stop; FieldGoal: 1. Day 1: Open in top 25% of today's daily range. 2. Day 1: Close in bottom 25% of today's daily range. 3. Day 1: Today's range > xaverage(range,21). 4. Day2: Open <= bottom 25% of Day1 range. 5. Day 2: Close in top 25% of today's daily range. 6. Day2: Today's range > xaverage(range,21). Note: the code "hits" after the "left" and "center" goal posts show up. You have to check for day 3 that the Open >= Day 2 close and you want a move above Day2's High. condition1 = O[1] >= L[1] + (.75 * range[1]); condition2 = C[1] <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]); condition3 = range[1] > xaverage(range[1],21); condition4 = O <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]); condition5 = C >= L + (.75 * range); condition6 = range > xaverage(range,21); if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition4 and condition5 and condition6 then buy h stop; Cooper Island: 1. Gap open down to a 2 month low. 2. Close in top 50% of day's range and >= Open. condition1 = O < L[1] and L = Lowest(L,42); condition2 = C >= L + (.50 * range) and C >= O; if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition4 and condition5 and condition6 then buy h + 0.5 stop; With all of these scans you should wait for a move above the "hit" day's high. Mark Brown ------------------------- "I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it." - Clint Eastwood ------------------------- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question Date: 20 Sep 1998 07:05:25 -0500 (CDT) John K. Your point about so many people using CANSLIM lessening its effect and success factor is well taken. However, think of the number of people who trade, the kinds, their goals, their systems or lack of, the whole factor of mass/crowd psychology, and I suspect that adhering to a disciplined, challenging method, such as CANSLIM (one among many, I assume), will appeal to a minority only. Anything that requires work, patience, time, growth both within oneself and the market will turn a lot of people off, especially when they experience their first loss. Also, I wonder how many, even in this message board, get off CANSLIM for whatever reason. So, I wouldn't be concerned following CANSLIM, using a tried-out, popular and successful system for fear of competition from CANSLIMERS. Regards, Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs Date: 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400 Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager 61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of A or B were as follows: AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC, GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU. I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these. You're on your own. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL Date: 20 Sep 1998 11:39:18 -0400 According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American conference.FWIW. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim, WON and JKHY-info forwarded Date: 20 Sep 1998 19:05:06 EDT JKHY was added to the active CANSLIM board Friday(09/18/98). Chuck COMPANY:------------------------------------------------Jack Henry & Assoc Inc STOCK SYMBOL:----------------------------------------JKHY EXCHANGE:-----------------------------------------------NASDAQ CURRENT PRICE:-----------------------------------------45.00 COMPANY PROFILE:------------------------------------Develops markets and supports turnkey in-house data processing systems software products which improve productivity. OUTSTANDING SHARES:-------------------------------20m EPS RANK:------------------------------------------------97 RELATIVE STRENGTH RANK:-------------------------98 ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RANK:------------B SPONSORSHIP RANK:----------------------------------D GROUP STRENGTH RANK:-----------------------------A DEBT PERCENTAGE:------------------------------------0 MANAGEMENT OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE:-------38 RETURN OF EQUITY PERCENTAGE:-----------------+34.9 PE RATIO:-------------------------------------------------39 THREE YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE:------------+32% LAST QUARTER EPS:----------------------------------+68% PRIOR QUARTER EPS:---------------------------------+35% LAST QUARTER SALES:------------------------------+86% PERCENT ABOVE 10-WEEK AVERAGE PRICE:----+12 TWO YEAR HIGH:----------------------------------------47.38 TWO YEAR LOW:----------------------------------------17.50 Results of the CANSLIM and CANSLIM POTENTIAL active board after close Friday(09/18/98). Chuck CANSLIM(+6.1%) SYMBOL PICKED & PRICE PRESENT EPS RS 10 WEEK A/D JKHY 09/18/98 45.00 47.75 97 98 +12 B CANSLIM POTENTIAL(picked when within 15% of NH))+21.8%) SYMBOL PICKED & PRICE PRESENT EPS RS 10 WEEK A/D LGTO 09/01/98 40.00 48.75 99 99 +18 A With CANSLIM and CANSLIM POTENTIAL (within 15% of new high), stocks are usually picked when they reach a New High(NH) along with meeting the other criteria. They are sold when they fall 8% from their highest closing price or going 20% above the buying price. Of course, it is not sold if the stock is on a good incline. General guidelines are: COMPANY:------------------------------------------------Usually an American company EXCHANGE:-----------------------------------------------NYSE or NASDAQ usually CURRENT PRICE:----------------------------------------over $15 COMPANY PROFILE:-----------------------------------Should be on the boards for at least two years and in one of the leading industries. OUTSTANDING SHARES:------------------------------5m-40m EPS RANK:----------------------------------------------->87 RELATIVE STRENGTH RANK:------------------------>87 ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RANK:-----------Usually A, sometimes B SPONSORSHIP RANK:---------------------------------A or B GROUP STRENGTH RANK:----------------------------Usually A, sometimes B DEBT PERCENTAGE:-----------------------------------<35 MANAGEMENT OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE:------usually 25-50 RETURN OF EQUITY PERCENTAGE:----------------->20 usually PE RATIO:----------------------------------------------->15 but depends on industry THREE YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE:------------>+25% LAST QUARTER EPS:---------------------------------->+70% PRIOR QUARTER EPS:--------------------------------->+25% usually LAST QUARTER SALES:------------------------------>+25% usually PERCENT ABOVE 10-WEEK AVERAGE PRICE:----anywhere on the + side VOLUME--------------------------------------------------Usually above the 10 week average. --------------------- Q&A With William O'Neil Q&A With William O'Neil How To Buy At Just The Right Moment Last week, William O'Neil began his discussion of how to spot sound price patterns, such as the ''cup with handle.'' In this installment, IBD's chairman and founder looks at other common bases. Why are they so important? Quality stocks typically form these same patterns before they go on to make big gains. Q:When did you realize the importance of reading charts? O'Neil: I first discovered how critical charts were in 1959, one year after I became a stockbroker. At that time, there was one specific mutual fund that happened to be outperforming all others. I got a weekly chart book and posted from prospectuses and quarterly reports where, price-wise, the fund purchased every new stock during the prior two years. I discovered something very important. What I learned was so startling, it simply changed my whole view about how to pick winning stocks. Every single one of the approximately 100 new stocks the fund purchased was bought only after it bolted into new high ground in price! For example, if a stock had fluctuated back and forth between $40 and $50 for three to six months, this No. 1 fund only bought when the stock made a new high at $51. Now let's stop and think about this concept for a moment. This idea of buying a stock at the highest price it has ever sold as it is coming out of a correct basing area (I talked about one common pattern, the ''cup with handle'' last week) seems ludicrous. After all, most of us were raised with the idea of getting a deal, a bargain. I'm here to shatter a common and comfortable misconception. What applies to buying a car or a dress works in the completely opposite way when dealing with stocks. You want stocks that have the greatest potential of moving even higher. So, you've got to ignore the erroneous old saying, ''buy low and sell high,'' and replace it with ''buy high and sell a lot higher.'' It's all a matter of perspective. Look back at a huge winner like Cisco Systems.csco From its original new-high pivot point of $30 in October '90 through today, it has increased an incredible 15,596%. The original pivot point was actually low. It simply seemed high because its price history was all that was known at that time. The incredible gains to come were not yet visible. Q:What are some other price patterns that emerge before stocks take off? O'Neil: In addition to the common ''cup with handle'' pattern, see page A5 for an example of a ''double bottom'' chart pattern with American Power Conversion.APCC American Power's 39-week pattern looks like a large letter ''W.'' The midpoint of the W at C should be below the high at point A, the beginning of the pattern. A to B is the first bottom in the letter W, B to C is the midpoint and C to D represents the second leg down and second bottom in the W. Normally, the second leg down will drop slightly below the absolute low of the first bottom at point B. This serves as a shakeout and helps scare out the last few weak holders. D to E is the last leg up in the W and E, F, and G forms a short handle. The correct buy point is at $22 at point G as the stock breaks through the peak price of the handle (point E). Note the high increase in weekly trading volume at the bottom of the chart when the stock moves up. The stock at the buy point had an Earnings Per Share rank of 99, a Relative Price Strength of 95, a return on equity of 53.8% and a 25% pretax profit margin. It advanced 800% in the following 22 months from point G, which at that time must have looked very high and scary. Notice also the big volume on the price run up from $18 to $22 at point C. One last observation: The last three weeks of December and the first week in January, the stock closed in a very tight range around $17 and the volume dried up to the lowest level in the entire base. Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of professional accumulation (buying). Q:Any other price patterns to look for? O'Neil: Another common base is the flat base. It usually occurs after a stock has formed a ''cup with handle'' and has then continued to move up. Simply, the price pattern moves straight sideways and holds tight for at least five weeks and normally only corrects 8% to 12%. At the end of this type of pattern, a new pivot point is established, giving you an additional chance to buy. You want to buy a stock exactly at its pivot buy point as it breaks out of a sound pattern. Don't chase it up more than 5% past its pivot. If you do, you will be buying ''extended'' and your risk of being shaken out on a normal price correction or pullback will increase. Q:What are some mistakes you can make in reading charts, and are there ''faulty'' base patterns? O'Neil: 1. Short bases of one, two, three or four weeks in duration are very risky and usually fail avoid them. 2. Patterns that are abnormally wide or loose in overall appearance are more risky. It's safer to buy tighter, better contained patterns with less wild price fluctuations. 3. Stocks that shoot up straight from the bottom of a pattern into new highs without any pullbacks or handles are risky and frequently have sharp sell- offs. 4. A base breakout with no real increase in volume should be avoided. 5. Laggard bases. The last stock in a group to break out to a new high is weak and a laggard. It should be passed up. 6. Handle areas that are too wide and loose (down 20% to 30%) or handles that wedge upward along their lows rather than drifting down along the lows are faulty and frequently may fail. Once you learn to read a chart book and correctly recognize stocks with sound base patterns that are under accumulation (professional buying) and possess all of the fundamental earnings criteria we mentioned early in this series, your stock selection and performance should improve significantly. Next week, I will explore a list of important rules regarding charts I've learned through the years. Looking for a previous installment of William O'Neil's series: ''26 Weeks To Investment Success''? Just log on to to the World Wide Web and point your browser to www.investors.com. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:52:08 -0400 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver 3.7 96 132 # 2 Utility-Electric Power 2.9 8 9 # 3 Retail-Drug Stores 2.8 1 3 # 4 Utility-Gas Distribution 2.4 29 44 # 5 Tobacco 2.3 85 114 # 6 Medical-Hlth Maint Org 2.2 149 168 # 7 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 1.2 63 22 # 8 Electrical-Connectors 1.2 134 96 # 9 Transportation-Rail 0.7 145 150 #10 Comml Svcs-Linen Supply 0.6 43 28 Worst 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Telecommunctns-Cellulr -18.5 25 15 #189 Retail-Consumer Elect -19.7 137 12 #190 Finance-Investment Mgmt -19.8 152 105 #191 Retail/Whlsle-Office Supl -20.1 97 85 #192 Retail-Discount&Variety -20.4 168 145 #193 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds -20.4 155 149 #194 Computer-Graphics -21.2 182 175 #195 Finance-Investment Bkrs -21.8 107 107 #196 Banks-Money Center -25.3 187 179 #197 Computer Softwr-Internet -40.1 12 5 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:52:02 -0400 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Medical-Nursing Homes 8.3 183 193 # 2 Transportation-Airline 6.8 139 170 # 3 Computer Softwr-Med 6.8 57 94 # 4 Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel 6.7 10 25 # 5 Computer Softwr-Internet 6.1 12 5 # 6 Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund 5.9 9 27 # 7 Insurance-Diversified 5.6 87 87 # 8 Medical-Outpnt/Hm Care 5.5 179 195 # 9 Financial Services-Misc 5.3 55 84 #10 Bldg-Hand Tools 5.3 101 104 Arial Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Household-Housewares -2.4 156 142 #189 Container-Metal/Glass -2.5 165 165 #190 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver -2.5 96 132 #191 Machinery-Farm -2.6 196 191 #192 Computer Softwr-Security -2.8 185 181 #193 Food-Meat Products -3.1 13 143 (weird) #194 Computer-Graphics -3.8 182 175 #195 Metal-Steel Pipe & Tube -4.2 189 185 #196 Auto Mfrs-Foreign -4.6 98 55 #197 Soap & Clng Preparatns -5.8 86 41 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:43:12 -0400 Global Intelligence Update Red Alert September 21, 1998 Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver. Forty-six percent of respondents to a poll published in the current issue of Newsweek think that Clinton should consider resigning. Over 60 percent want public censure, an unprecedented step. Less than a third want Clinton to remain in office without any punishment. We have reached an extreme point, where Clinton must regard those who favor censure but not impeachment to be among his strongest supporters. When you are counting among your supporters those who are calling for your public humiliation, it is time to reexamine your options. Clinton is running out of them, but he has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the international financial crisis. This week, the Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity. The crisis: On Monday, Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony will be made public. This will, in all likelihood, intensify pressure on the president, because the Republicans would not be releasing the testimony so eagerly if it were not harmful to Clinton. The opportunity: On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi will be meeting with Clinton. At this point, Clinton's defense has been reduced to three arguments. First, while it is true that he lied in essence, he is arguing that he did not lie in the narrowly legal sense of the term. Because he did not break the law, he should not be impeached. Second, his supporters are arguing that even if he did lie under oath, it was a lie about sex. Sex is a private matter and lying about such matters is common and natural. Therefore, lying under oath about private sexual matters is understandable and does not constitute a sufficiently grave offense as to justify impeachment. Clinton's final line of defense is the most important: Even if he did violate the law, this argument goes, he is doing such a splendid job in all other respects that no reasonable person should want to see him removed from office. This last line of defense depends on public perception, and is reflected in his job approval rating in the polls. Clinton has used his job approval rating as the ultimate argument against impeachment. Therefore, maintaining the job approval rating has become mission critical to his presidency. Now, it is possible to argue that he is doing a good job as president, but that he should still be impeached if he breaks the law, and this view is gradually being manifested in the polls. However, should his job approval rating decline dramatically, then all would be lost. Clinton must continue to be seen as doing a good job. Thus, the key question is this: What constitutes doing a good job? "It's the economy, stupid." This has been his strength. It is now potentially a catastrophic weakness. There appears to be an international economic crisis of epic proportions that seems to be affecting the U.S. economy. The U.S. stock markets have been sharply hit of late. A cyclical downturn is overdue, at least in the simple sense of the length of the current economic expansion. Clinton does not appear to have a policy for dealing with this. Now, such a downturn may not be due to Asia and it may not be under Clinton's control, and the worst solution of all may be a Washington-generated policy trying to solve the world's economic problems. But Clinton's problem is that he who lives by myth, dies by myth. Having unfairly taken credit for America's economic well-being, he will now unfairly be blamed for America's economic problems. Inevitably, economic and market weakness will eat into his ratings, collapsing his last line of defense. Thus, the pressure to appear to be doing something decisive about the economy is growing irresistible to a man not known for his ability to resist temptation. Enter Japan's Prime Minister Obuchi, fresh from his country's latest failure to create a workable solution to its economic crisis. After weeks of trying to pass legislation for dealing with the mass of bad debts accumulated by the Japanese banking system, itself merely a symptom of much deeper problems, the Diet finally passed a bill last Friday. Like all of its predecessors, the bill was designed to give the appearance of action rather than to constitute action. It was designed to avoid contact with reality rather than to grapple with it. Even accepting the fact that Japanese politics have become as bankrupt and gridlocked as the Japanese economy, the Diet's actions were breathtaking. On the eve of a critical summit with the U.S., the Diet knowingly produced a bill that would demonstrate not Japan's intention to solve its own problems but its utter inability to do so. Because no real pressure was exerted from any quarter and the Japanese are not stupid, they clearly understand both what they are doing and how it may appear to the rest of the world. And because Japan is no longer even pretending very hard that it is doing anything to solve the problem, we are left to wonder what the Japanese have in mind, since we are quite sure that they have much in mind, appearances notwithstanding. Consider the obvious solution. Japan can force its banks to liquidate their debts, contracting their capital base, cutting available credit, and creating a new wave of bankruptcies. This will bring about a dramatic restructuring of the Japanese economy, similar to what happened in the U.S. several years ago. While this will be incredibly painful, with unprecedented high unemployment and interest rates, in the long run Japan will emerge stronger and more competitive. Alternatively, the Japanese government can absorb the bad debts, print money to cover them, and inflate its way out of the problem. This is a much worse solution, but it is a solution. The problem with both of these solutions is politics. It is unlikely that the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japanese political system as currently constituted could survive the stresses and strains implicit in this strategy. So, Japan has a domestic solution available, but it is extremely painful and politically unacceptable. Therefore, Japan has decided on another strategy: Internationalize its banking crisis. Japan is not merely avoiding action. Whether by design or by accident, it is exporting its problems. Take, for example, interest rates. Low interest rates reduce bankruptcies and have their justifications, but Japan's interest rates are insane. The 10-year Japanese government bond currently carries a yield of less that 0.7 percent (That's not "seven" percent; that's "zero-point-seven" percent). As a result, money continues to leave Japan while foreign investment avoids Japan like the plague. All of this weakens the yen. Now, a weak yen helps Japan's exports, but it also places enormous pressure on other Asian economies. Low Japanese interest rates strike directly at China's ability to maintain the yuan. Indeed, the Chinese have been quite bitter at Japanese policies for their effect on China, and have been intensifying currency controls of late in order to minimize the effect of the yen's general weakness. Everything that Japan has done has had the effect of increasing the strain on the international system. That appears bizarre until you think about it. Japan has two goals. First, it wants to get out of this economic mess. Second, it wants to do so without making fundamental changes to its society, economy, or political system. Any solution it devises will require fundamental changes. If, however, Japan can convince others to underwrite the restoration of its financial system, it can save itself without fundamental change. The key is to convince others that they have no choice but to absorb the cost of bailing Japan out. That isn't easy to do. However, if the Japanese can convince the world, and particularly the U.S., that (a) Japan is incapable of solving its problems and (b) Japan's inability to do so will wreck the international economic system (and America's), then the rest of the world will have no choice but to act. The solution would look something like this. Instead of the Japanese government creating a new entity, similar to the Resolution Trust Corporation that managed the collapsed savings- and-loan system in the U.S., the IMF or a new agency funded by international capital would buy up bad loans in Japan. This would allow Japanese banks to restructure their balance sheets without forcing a fundamental shift in fiscal and monetary policy in Japan. In short, the rest of the world, mostly the U.S. with some European help, would pay for Japanese mismanagement. Because Japan's fabled bureaucracy would still be in place, inevitably, formal international controls on the Japanese banking system would be informally thwarted, leaving Japan looking much like it did before, with foreigners carrying the burden of Japanese mismanagement. Why would anyone agree to this? If the Japanese can convince the world of points (a) and (b) above, then, in a massive game of international financial chicken, the country with the most to lose, the U.S., will have no choice but to save Japan from itself. Because Japan doesn't have many other choices, it has little to lose in following this strategy. Of late, the Japanese have managed to threaten the U.S. without doing so openly. On Friday, Prime Minister Obuchi said, "I have decided that the world's second largest economy, Japan, should not become the source of the global financial meltdown." Now, because the legislation he was announcing would have absolutely no impact on the course of that meltdown, what he was really saying was, "If things go on this way, Japan will cause a global economic meltdown. Japan is not going to do a single thing to avert this meltdown. If you don't believe me, just look at this legislation. So, if you don't want a global meltdown, you'd better do something." And with that, he got on the plane to visit the U.S. As our regular readers should be aware, we are not of the opinion that the Asian crisis is causing a global meltdown. Russia's problems have nothing whatever to do with Asia. Latin America's problems are only marginally linked to Asia's, and are far less structural. The European and American situations are quite separate from Asia's problems. But it is in Japan's urgent interest to convince the Western community that there is a global crisis, and saving Japan will avert that crisis. Unfortunately for Japan, its subtle assertion that it is more in the world's interest to save Japan than it is in Japan's interest to save itself is not persuasive. Normally, such an assertion would go nowhere. The problem today is that Bill Clinton badly needs a crisis to solve. In fact, he needs to save the world. Obuchi has tried very hard to give Clinton the opportunity to appear to be saving the world. The question is whether Clinton will seize the opportunity. Thus, two political cripples are meeting this week to discuss the future of the international financial system. Clinton set the stage for the meeting last week, when he announced the need for a global economic conference to solve the problems posed by the Asian meltdown. Interestingly, Alan Greenspan tried to diffuse Clinton's initiative by making it clear that he was not even in favor of a global interest rate cut, let alone more concerted international action. Nevertheless, Clinton badly needs to be seen as a decisive political leader. Thus, the danger this week is that Clinton's political weakness will tempt him into playing Obuchi's game. Clinton's need for a sweeping and decisive gesture, to convince the public that he is indispensable, will lead him to be sorely tempted by Obuchi's desire to create an international solution to Japan's, and Asia's, economic problems. In our view, the U.S. can no more solve Japan's problems than it could solve Russia's. Japan's problems are deep, structural, and of Japan's own making. The solutions must be deep, structural, and Japan's responsibility. Moreover, it is our view that the U.S. is far less threatened by a Japanese meltdown than Japan would like the U.S. to believe. Internationalization will merely further postpone Japan's day of reckoning, while actually increasing U.S. exposure to the consequences of delay. Whether we are correct on this point or not, the pressure on Clinton to allow Obuchi's worldview to dominate the meeting is intense. Whether there is a solution, and whether the U.S. should shoulder the burden for the solution, may turn out to be less material than Clinton's need to make it appear that he alone has the solution, and that without that solution, and without Clinton, the world faces a disaster. Obuchi, in an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday, turned up the pressure on Clinton, or gave him more ammunition, depending on how you look at it. Obuchi said that Japan had tried every solution and that the only remedy left might be to build up a "wartime economy," with increased defense spending leading the way to new jobs and industrial growth. Coming after Japan's very public panic over North Korean missile tests, Obuchi is signaling the U.S. that the only option under its control is the return of Japanese militarism. If the U.S. doesn't want that, then it is up to the U.S. to solve Japan's problems. A strong president would refuse all assistance to Japan, at least until the Japanese themselves show their willingness to make painful decisions. In ordinary times, Bill Clinton could do this and still appear decisive, taking advantage of his willingness to confront Japan as evidence of his will. But these are not ordinary times, and a show of will in private meetings will not affect Monday's release of Clinton's grand jury testimony. If those tapes kick off a firestorm, Clinton may look at his meeting with Obuchi as his last chance to save his presidency, by appearing to save the world. It has been said that this is a crisis of character. This week will be the ultimate test of Clinton's character. If he can resist the temptation to play Obuchi's game, he may finally show that he has character. Paradoxically, that very show of character might throw away a final chance to save his presidency. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55 Date: 21 Sep 1998 03:24:42 GMT On Fri, 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400, you wrote: :Are the small caps going to lead us back up? Or is this a one day = wonder? : Craig: The small caps have been so beat up that it will take a lot more than one extraordinary day to indicate that this is a signal that they are finally coming to life. I hope the day will not be long, and I know if will not escape out attention when it does come. However, it may be a long way in the offing. I have been watching for it. Haven't given up, but have become resigned to the fact that it may be a long time. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs Date: 21 Sep 1998 03:27:38 GMT On Sun, 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400, you wrote: :Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager :61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of :A or B were as follows: : :AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC, :GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU. : :I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these. :You're on your own. : :Tom W : I've seen it mentioned on this newslist that most of the new highs you see these days are the result of a takeover or takeover bid. New lows have been outnumbering new highs something like 10 to one for quite a spell now (something like a couple of months). Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading Date: 21 Sep 1998 06:28:13 -0400 Thanks, Frank. A most provocative and thoughtful article. I share the author's concerns over the character of the President and whether he can withstand the Japanese implied blackmail when he is already weakened and desperate to do something "Presidential". I encourage all members, especially those in the USA but also those elsewhere in the globe, to take the time to read this lengthy article in its entirety. Tom W -----Original Message----- >Subject: Clinton and Japan Must read > >Global Intelligence Update >Red Alert >September 21, 1998 > >Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis > >President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver. Forty-six >percent of respondents to a poll published in the current issue >of Newsweek think that Clinton should consider resigning. Over >60 percent want public censure, an unprecedented step. Less than >a third want Clinton to remain in office without any punishment. >We have reached an extreme point, where Clinton must regard those >who favor censure but not impeachment to be among his strongest >supporters. When you are counting among your supporters those >who are calling for your public humiliation, it is time to >reexamine your options. Clinton is running out of them, but he >has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the >international financial crisis. > >This week, the Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate >are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity. The >crisis: On Monday, Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony will >be made public. This will, in all likelihood, intensify pressure >on the president, because the Republicans would not be releasing >the testimony so eagerly if it were not harmful to Clinton. The >opportunity: On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi >will be meeting with Clinton. > (rest snipped but well worth reading) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs Date: 21 Sep 1998 04:11:19 -0700 At least 4 of the stocks on Tom's list are making new highs all by their little ol' selves: LGTO, PAYX, JKHY, MNMD. I'd add SUT as a decent CANSLIM pick which is also within shotgun range of it's 52-week high. CPWR, DELL, and SBL are also close-ish (within 25%). At 03:27 AM 9/21/98 +0000, you wrote: >On Sun, 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400, you wrote: > >:Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager >:61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of >:A or B were as follows: >: >:AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC, >:GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU. >: >:I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these. >:You're on your own. >: >:Tom W >: >I've seen it mentioned on this newslist that most of the new highs you >see these days are the result of a takeover or takeover bid. New lows >have been outnumbering new highs something like 10 to one for quite a >spell now (something like a couple of months). > >Dan >musicant@autobahn.org > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading Date: 21 Sep 1998 07:25:08 -0500 (CDT) Thanks, Frank, it was interesting and frightening, but realistic. Decisive historical moments have been made influenced by a quirk of personality, a character flaw, a political and/or personal "life saver", even prejudice, opinions, and so on. Emotions, rather than facts, rule decisions on many levels, including the market and politics. The following quote is from "Men, Stress and Vietnam" by Peter Bourne. The overwhelming desire for the success of politics to which a strong emotional attachment has been made also leads to an attempt to alter those facts over which one has control, making them consistent at a magical level that events over which one has no control will then also fall into the desired pattern. Appreciate the post and the link. Mary Keener - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM Date: 21 Sep 1998 13:19:26 GMT On Wed, 16 Sep 1998 08:08:12 -0500 (CDT), you wrote: :Dean Edwards, : :Excellent post. Much needed by me and possibly :others. : :Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best, :besides Baruch's autobiography? : :Mary Keener : WON has indicated that over 2000 investment books have passed across his desk or found their way into his library. The titles presented here are already a sifted and resifted representation of the best. I do recall him specifically mentioning: How To Trade In Stocks - J. Livermore=20 Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator - E. Lefevre=20 And, possibly Loeb. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL Date: 21 Sep 1998 09:52:29 -0400 Ari Lawson wrote: > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American > conference.FWIW. (Did they loose?) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 13:49:20 -0400 Worth a look today. May be leaving station. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: robert urban Subject: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:23:02 -0500 What does through group think of the "pattern" of BRCM as an example of of a double bottom and a ?breakout? dru - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:38:24 -0800 Date sent: Mon, 21 Sep 1998 09:52:29 -0400 > > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American > > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow > > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American > > conference.FWIW. > > (Did they loose?) Denver won, which broke a long stretch of NFC teams winning, and hence foretold all of the market difficulties we are experiencing this year ;) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:50:13 -0800 > What does through group think of the "pattern" of BRCM as an example of > of a double bottom and a ?breakout? dru Does seem to have formed a double bottom. You could also say that it has formed a very rough cup, and now is at the point where it might form a handle sort of thing. A few weeks ago Business Week had an article about BRCM, sounds like they are loaded with brainpower anyway, 43 PhD's, along with the two guys who are running the thing. I am wondering if this stock might be another ASND type thing, where you can buy it and hold for a couple of years and double or triple your money (or more maybe). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:56:14 -0700 It could be due to the long hiatus in CANSLIM breakouts, but I thought we had worked out that the CANSLI stats would be posted with any possible "breakout" notification... At 06:23 PM 9/21/98 -0500, you wrote: >What does through group think of the "pattern" of BRCM as an example of >of a double bottom and a ?breakout? dru > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 19:30:59 -0700 (PDT) <> I read somewhere that the second leg of the W shouldn't undercut the first by more than 3-4%. I don't know if this is true or not, but it makes sense. All you really need is enough to shake out weak hands. In any case, notice the pause and subsequent breakout from the midpoint of the W. However, as with CVD, it could just as easily fall back to or through support due to market conditions. IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM Date: 21 Sep 1998 20:04:56 -0700 GMSTF also has a doulbe-bottom chart which is pretty darn scary looking, but nonetheless broke out today on @1.7x ADV to a new high. Data presented in my Killer CASLI scan results last week. I too will not buy it or any other stock until this mess wears itself out. Things are definitely improving; some bases are forming and some never let up (i.e. PAYX, LGTO, JKHY). At 07:30 PM 9/21/98 -0700, you wrote: ><an >example of a double bottom and a ?breakout? dru>> > >I read somewhere that the second leg of the W shouldn't undercut the >first by more than 3-4%. I don't know if this is true or not, but it >makes sense. All you really need is enough to shake out weak hands. >In any case, notice the pause and subsequent breakout from the >midpoint of the W. However, as with CVD, it could just as easily fall >back to or through support due to market conditions. > >IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Date: 22 Sep 1998 14:18:19 PDT > IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. > > --Db Agreed. I think that this is a very dangerous market. Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities on anything but daytrades. The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets. One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks. It is the one most likely to slip under the waves first. Under the previous administration, Japanese authorities had been "encouraging" it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called the "convoy" system. Translation: the Ministry of Finance had been dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB, debts and all. There had been later fruitless plans to set up a bridge bank as well. Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: = this time towards using public money to bail LTCB out. This has run into a = political stone wall. So as of this moment on Tuesday, there is no workable plan in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill this bank. Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to = see how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could be an exciting day. In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, and my trading account is 100% cash. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Date: 22 Sep 1998 15:34:09 PDT I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics (a.k.a. non-M noise). Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics. (My wife and little boy arrived later on.) Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of my revered books. References to inflation outnumber those to deflation by 10 to 1. Why ? These texts were all written well after World War Two, where inflation has been the norm. I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy artillery... = Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960", in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts). This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading... had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder. As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two, especially in peace time. It is fairly well known that for the first yea= rs of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm. Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. We call it the Industrial Revolution. So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation. The media, as usual, get it wrong when they hold up deflation as always being an evil. The question is, if deflation comes to North America, will it be the wrong kind this time? Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation will be very bad indeed. If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada e-mail: wstock@globalserve.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: 22 Sep 1998 21:37:23 +0200 YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through butter. What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. AMGN LLY ANF ANN APCC ASDV ATI BLS BMCS BMET BRG CPWR DRTE EMC SWY UMG USCS GNE AEH PPDI CVD FISV GEOC GPSI GVA LSON LZB METG MNMD NTAP PAYX PRGN RX INC MEDQ Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Date: 22 Sep 1998 14:18:19 PDT > IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. > > --Db Agreed. I think that this is a very dangerous market. Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities on anything but daytrades. The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets. One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks. It is the one most likely to slip under the waves first. Under the previous administration, Japanese authorities had been "encouraging" it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called the "convoy" system. Translation: the Ministry of Finance had been dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB, debts and all. There had been later fruitless plans to set up a bridge bank as well. Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: = this time towards using public money to bail LTCB out. This has run into a = political stone wall. So as of this moment on Tuesday, there is no workable plan in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill this bank. Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to = see how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could be an exciting day. In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, and my trading account is 100% cash. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 22 Sep 1998 15:45:39 -0400 Johan, I am equally amazed. I love the action in YHOO. But the volume is not enough to pull the trigger. Let's hope it forms a nice handle here and then moves out on heavy volume. DCSquires Johan Van Houtven wrote: > YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, > after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through > butter. > > What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and > can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > > Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) > > To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. > > This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. > > AMGN > LLY > ANF > ANN > APCC > ASDV > ATI > BLS > BMCS > BMET > BRG > CPWR > DRTE > EMC > SWY > UMG > USCS > GNE > AEH > PPDI > CVD > FISV > GEOC > GPSI > GVA > LSON > LZB > METG > MNMD > NTAP > PAYX > PRGN > RX > INC > MEDQ > > Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:13:53 -0700 (PDT) Thought provoking post, Walter. "Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. We call it the Industrial Revolution." So what is the cause of this type of posperity? Is it that technology revolutionalizes types of goods and services available to people? People can afford things that were not possible previously because they were too expensive or not invented yet? That efficiency and innovation are cost effective? That people whose jobs are displaced by technology can learn the skills necessary to adapt and upgrade their lives? TM TM ---Walter Stock wrote: > > I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage > of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics > (a.k.a. non-M noise). > > Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm > how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned > nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics. > (My wife and little boy arrived later on.) > > Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of > my revered books. References to inflation outnumber those to > deflation by 10 to 1. Why ? These texts were all written well > after World War Two, where inflation has been the norm. > > I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy artillery... > Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960", > in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts). > This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading... > had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder. > > As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two, > especially in peace time. It is fairly well known that for the first years > of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm. > > Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation > held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. > We call it the Industrial Revolution. > > So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation. > The media, as usual, get it wrong when they hold up deflation as > always being an evil. The question is, if deflation comes to North > America, will it be the wrong kind this time? > > Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand > for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation > will be very bad indeed. > > If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know. > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ONT - Canada > e-mail: wstock@globalserve.net > > > > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:28:39 -0700 On 12:37 PM 9/22/98 , Johan Van Houtven Said: >APCC >CPWR >MNMD >NTAP >PAYX What I left above has at least some to most of the CANSLIM characteristics... Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:38:45 -0700 (PDT) YHOO doesn't fit the CANSLIM profile as far as EPS is concerned but relative strength has been outstanding. But then neither did AOL and AOL has been one of the outstanding stocks of the decade. Anindo > > YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, > after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through > butter. > > What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and > can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > > Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) > > To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. > > This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. > > AMGN > LLY > ANF > ANN > APCC > ASDV > ATI > BLS > BMCS > BMET > BRG > CPWR > DRTE > EMC > SWY > UMG > USCS > GNE > AEH > PPDI > CVD > FISV > GEOC > GPSI > GVA > LSON > LZB > METG > MNMD > NTAP > PAYX > PRGN > RX > INC > MEDQ > > > Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Date: 22 Sep 1998 18:29:08 -0400 At 02:18 PM 9/22/98 PDT, you wrote: > >Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming >due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to see >how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could >be an exciting day. > >In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, >and my trading account is 100% cash. > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ONT - Canada > I've heard the amount of the banking mess in Japan exceeds by a factor of 10 the S&L crisis of the late 80's in the US. Thanks for the post and the message regarding deflation. I find the economics fascinating. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL Date: 22 Sep 1998 22:37:44 -0400 The Denver Bronco's of the old American conference won the last superbowl. Tom Moulton wrote: > Ari Lawson wrote: > > > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American > > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow > > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American > > conference.FWIW. > > (Did they loose?) > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Date: 23 Sep 1998 12:06:04 GMT Interesting post, Walter. My take on it is that the years of significant deflation in the US (and probably Canada too) are history, at least for the foreseeable future. Just as much history as is the industrial revolution. I think we will continue to see inflation in this segment of the world economy, however it will be monitored and tightly controlled similar to the way the Greenspan-led FOMA has been policying for the last several years (how long has this run of successful FOMA non-recessionary management been going on now? 20 years or so?). Of course, I could be wrong, and it would probably make for more exciting times if the perturbations of the economic landscape were greater, but I do not anticipate great oscillations in the US and Canada in the foreseeable future. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Date: 23 Sep 1998 09:31:40 -0400 Canslimmer's Did anyone read the Special Weekly Feature in the Monday issue of IBD about "How Chart Patterns Lead To Big Profits"? WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period. Here he states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of professional accumulation (buying)." Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation? Thanks, Joan Sherman - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55 Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:04:10 GMT On Fri, 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400, you wrote: :Are the small caps going to lead us back up? Or is this a one day = wonder? : R2000 significantly outperformed the other US indexes again yesterday. (Mon. 9/22) 2 day wonder or...?? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - MSPG Date: 23 Sep 1998 08:15:49 -0700 (PDT) MSPG is such a good example, not only of how chart patterns can be helpful with or without the use of complex indicators (in this case, without), but also of how one can tailor them to suit one's own risk tolerance. To begin with, until yesterday it had been forming an ascending right triangle, flat highs and increasingly higher lows. This is a bullish pattern, though in this case it was lower than one would ordinarily want. In a more perfect world, it would have formed five points higher at old resistance (which would also be slightly above the 50d). Most likely, however, it formed where it did because that level represented a 50% retracement. Note also the reduction in volume throughout, and the gradual increase over the last three days. In any case, it finally took off from there yesterday on not particularly interesting volume. The volume seems to be kicking in today, propelling it through the 50d. What will happen to it there is anybody's guess, particularly since the Naz is so close to its 200d. An aggressive trader might have bought it yesterday or the day before, knowing full well that it might have trouble getting through the 50d. In fact, he may have been reluctant to hold it overnight. A real hot-dogger, though, would probably have taken his chances and been nicely rewarded today. A more conservative trader would wait for the stock to penetrate the 50d and hold there, remembering--as I said--that the Naz is very close to what should be strong resistance. He might even wait for it to base there, if only for a brief period of time, noting the probability that he may run into trouble at the old high. A more conservative trader/investor still would wait for a new high and perhaps another base, even though he'd be giving up an already 50% return. OTOH, he'd have clear sailing ahead of him. If MSPG is a true winner, he'll have substantial rewards to look forward to, even though he didn't buy "at the bottom". Did I buy it? No. I never buy anything unless the market is behind me. And I definitely don't hold anything overnight unless the market is behind me. If we had already retested the lows, I would have bought it like a shot. As it is, it may very well retest its base if the Naz can't get through its 200d. Nonetheless, MSPG can teach one a lesson on how to balance chart patterns, simple technical indicators, fundamentals, and risk tolerance to arrive at a comfortable and rewarding choice. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve Hilton Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" talk Date: 23 Sep 1998 12:46:35 -0500 The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about cutting rates next week. Would he do this? I'm thinking it is unlikely he will consider cutting until November. Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting? Isn't this irrational exhuberance? We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing vol.). I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the extremely weak volume on Monday. What do you Canslimmers think? A lurker, Steve -- Steve Hilton email: shilton1@email.mot.com Motorola Inc. voice: (847) 632-4186 MS IL75/2J4 fax: (847) 632-4164 1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 60004 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" talk Date: 23 Sep 1998 11:00:39 -0700 The speculation is that he will say something to congress at 2 PM ET today. Right now in fact. Not next week. The Fed regular meeting is 9/28. I'll predict right now that he'll either say nothing or deny a rate cut and the maket will close way off its intraday highs... On 10:46 AM 9/23/98 , Steve Hilton Said: >The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about >cutting rates >next week. Would he do this? I'm thinking it is unlikely he will >consider cutting until >November. Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting? >Isn't this irrational >exhuberance? > >We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing >vol.). >I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the >extremely weak >volume on Monday. > >What do you Canslimmers think? > >A lurker, > >Steve > >-- >Steve Hilton email: shilton1@email.mot.com >Motorola Inc. voice: (847) 632-4186 >MS IL75/2J4 fax: (847) 632-4164 >1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 600 Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:16:31 +0200 >This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. Some from the watchlist that are at new highs on high volume and mostly past their buy points. GPSI, GEOC, PRGN, CPWR, BMCS softwares... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:07:33 +0200 I wrote: >YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, >after I covered my short. Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway, just wanted to correct that. >Broke through resistance like a hot knife through >butter. > >What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and >can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. And of course today it is 10% higher... Aaargh! B^) Another lesson learned. Now back to the Medicals. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 17:17:23 -0400 (EDT) Johan, Does this look like a legitimate follow-through? I still do not believe it given the technical damage done during the recent decliner. Jeffry, what do you think? Are you still holding those value line futures (even paper trading them)? Craig, your thoughts? Regards, Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:21:48 -0700 (PDT) You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN. Anindo > > I wrote: > >YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, > >after I covered my short. > > Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas > watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway, > just wanted to correct that. > > >Broke through resistance like a hot knife through > >butter. > > > >What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and > >can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > > And of course today it is 10% higher... Aaargh! B^) > > Another lesson learned. > > Now back to the Medicals. > > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:16:31 +0200 >This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. Some from the watchlist that are at new highs on high volume and mostly past their buy points. GPSI, GEOC, PRGN, CPWR, BMCS softwares... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:50:08 -0700 (PDT) <<>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and >can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. And of course today it is 10% higher... Aaargh! B^) Another lesson learned. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.>> In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn? Or are you referring to a daytrading lesson? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:07:33 +0200 I wrote: >YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, >after I covered my short. Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway, just wanted to correct that. >Broke through resistance like a hot knife through >butter. > >What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and >can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. And of course today it is 10% higher... Aaargh! B^) Another lesson learned. Now back to the Medicals. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO and Db Date: 23 Sep 1998 18:45:21 -0400 > Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 17:17:23 -0400 (EDT) > From: Deepak Kapur > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO > > Johan, > > Does this look like a legitimate follow-through? I still do not believe > it given the technical damage done during the recent decliner. Jeffry, > what do you think? Are you still holding those value line futures (even > paper trading them)? Craig, your thoughts? > > Regards, > > Deepak > Follow through days are by definition only the 1% on volume within the 3-10 day window off the low. At least that's the way I learned it. We had only one follow through day on the original reversal low, Sept. 1 I believe. The latter days, the past two, show nice strength (particulary on increasing A/D breadth), but that are not critical to the Market direction analysis, IMO. The futures system has me holding (on paper, unfortunately) a two lot now up over 30 points each, on average entry. At $100 a point, that's 200% initial margin requirements per K on the mini-value line contract. Still no distribution day upon which to justify raising the stop from a high risk initial placement. BTW, Db...on the technical side, what do you make of what I'm hearing referred to as the "bear flag" formation in the indices which now appears to be at the top of the range and just at the 50 day EMA. If I were a gambling man, and I am in a way, I'd say that we could expect a distribution day tomorrow which would precede a move back to the lower end of the "flag" trendline. Your thoughts? Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 24 Sep 1998 00:57:21 +0200 ><<>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and >couldn't and >>can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > >And of course today it is 10% higher... Aaargh! B^) > >Another lesson learned. > >Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.>> > >In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn? Or are you referring >to a daytrading lesson? A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing strenght in a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is comming up, instead of the possibility of going long. The lesson is that I should look at what the market AND the stock are doing. That I shouldn't pay attention to what I think they should be doing or are going to do. The fact is that we are in a short term up-trend. Whether it will turn into a mid-term uptrend soon, no one knows. And again I now expect a pauze, but I'll try to just look at what the market does. I a sense you should build scenario's and in another sense you shouldn't. It is a delicate balance, I think. I know a lot of what I'm saying above is debatable. I'm even debating it in my head as I type... I'm playing with the idea of totaly isolation myself from all noise, but I would sure miss the socializing... So I'll have to work towards finding a balance between the two. Still thinking... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 24 Sep 1998 01:08:07 +0200 At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote: > You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This >is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying >DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN. > >Anindo Anindo, Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing? http://www.remote-viewing.com/ ;^) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:16:00 -0700 (PDT) The stock is telling me. MSFT, DELL, CSCO none of the leaders have reached their new highs. Yet YHOO crosses it with ease. Sure it might correct 5 to 10 % near term but this one is a keeper for sure. Anindo > > At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote: > > You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This > >is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying > >DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN. > > > >Anindo > > Anindo, > > Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing? > > http://www.remote-viewing.com/ > > ;^) > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:27:58 -0700 (PDT) <<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn? Or are you referring >to a daytrading lesson? A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing strenght in a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>> I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off of. There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would a CSer have found a toehold here? If this is the way stocks are going to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks. Or are you just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort of base emerges from that? If you are, it makes a certain kind of sense. The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength to get back up there, after all. Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rossi1080@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 23 Sep 1998 19:24:22 EDT I have been watching SBL Symbol Technologies for awhile now and predict this stock to be a big winner. They are around thier 52wk high and have an enormous industry strength. Watch Symbol and buy on dips. There technology is only becoming more in demand they are going no where but uppppppp. enjoy the club, and i appreciate all your input. Thanks Ed - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Date: 23 Sep 1998 17:37:51 -0800 > WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight > range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period. Here he > states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of > professional accumulation (buying)." > Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation? I looked at the chart and don't see a tight range, looks rather bad in fact. This was Dec 1997- Jan 1998? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks to Buy--Maybe Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:39:01 -0700 (PDT) Ran another scan of stocks with RS>85, EPS>70, $>7, ADV>75K and A/D of A or B that are also within 15% of a new high and are in some sort of a base (utilities not included). Wound up with GNE, JP, PMS and SDG. Not exactly a smorgasbord. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO and Db Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:20:05 -0700 (PDT) <> I've been debating that elsewhere. I've read, and it's been my experience, that flags don't last as long as these. If, for example, a falling flag lasts more than a week or so, it more likely signals a failed breakout more than it does an opportunity to buy. By the same token, if a rising flag lasts more than a week or so, it is more likely a genuine reversal rather than a shorting opportunity. But in this case, it probably doesn't matter. IMO, the 200d MAs are of much greater concern. It just so happens that the flag channels on the Naz and S&P cross their individual 200d at the points at which it would be impossible to know what was the cause of the reversal, if there is one. I, for one, am taking CS for its word and buying proper breakouts off proper bases. Today that meant OSTE. More than anything else, I'm trying to listen to what the market is telling me, rather than adhere to a prewritten scenario. If the market reverses course tomorrow and my stop is hit, I'll just go back to a waiting mode. BTW, a rising or falling wedge can take far longer than a flag to unwind, but I don't see wedges here (wedges? we don't need no stinking wedges!). All just my opinion, of course. Though it's worth keeping in mind that technicians often use phrases like "tends to indicate", which is not what I call decisive. Like "a rising flag tends to indicate a continuation of the downtrend". But if this were the case, stocks would never go up. Just a thought. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:16:00 -0700 (PDT) The stock is telling me. MSFT, DELL, CSCO none of the leaders have reached their new highs. Yet YHOO crosses it with ease. Sure it might correct 5 to 10 % near term but this one is a keeper for sure. Anindo > > At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote: > > You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This > >is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying > >DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN. > > > >Anindo > > Anindo, > > Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing? > > http://www.remote-viewing.com/ > > ;^) > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 20:56:09 -0400 Hi all, Just to put my 2 cents in.......... I would characterize the non base formation in YHOO as a viscous shakeout. IMHO, this stock is a true leader like a CSCO or AMGN and the downside is equally as volatile as the upside. Like O'neil says .....a true leader will give you every reason in the world to sell it or not buy it. If M will just start behaving I will buy this stock (and BRCM too for that matter) everyday I can just like WON did will AMGN. That said, the idea of stocks moving into new high ground without a proper base has got me concerned also. Is this possibly the "discounting" of CANSLIM........everyone anticipates the handle and buys early thus driving the stock to a new high early?? I was ready for a little consolidation in YHOO and BRCM so I could buy a sound breakout with a strong market behind me. No such luck. I get the worst of both worlds......My watch list goes to new high ground without me and the market powers ahead on a sickly number of new highs!!! RATS! DCSquires dbphoenix wrote: > <<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn? Or are you referring > >to a daytrading lesson? > > A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing > strenght in > a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really > believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is > comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>> > > I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off > of. There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would > a CSer have found a toehold here? If this is the way stocks are going > to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare > as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks. Or are you > just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort > of base emerges from that? If you are, it makes a certain kind of > sense. The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength > to get back up there, after all. > > Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on. > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] A few Stocks Date: 23 Sep 1998 19:00:01 -0800 A couple of stocks I noticed today that might be worth further review are Compuware (CPWR), SUNW, BMCS, and Peregrine Systems (PRGN). SUNW has probably the best base, the others aren't really ideal, which is probably to be expected with the recent market volatility. The volume pattern on CPWR looked especially good. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:00:13 -0400 I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was rather poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting the chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in other charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of weeks. Frank Wolynski At 17:37 9/23/98 -0800, you wrote: > >> WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight >> range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period. Here he >> states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of >> professional accumulation (buying)." >> Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation? > >I looked at the chart and don't see a tight range, looks rather bad in >fact. This was Dec 1997- Jan 1998? > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:13:46 -0400 At 16:27 9/23/98 -0700, you wrote: > ><<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn? Or are you referring >>to a daytrading lesson? > >A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing >strenght in >a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really >believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is >comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>> > >I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off >of. There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would >a CSer have found a toehold here? If this is the way stocks are going >to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare >as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks. Or are you >just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort >of base emerges from that? If you are, it makes a certain kind of >sense. The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength >to get back up there, after all. > >Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on. > >--Db > Chewing a bit here too. On the AOL 'Traders' forum, there are some referring to the current trading range patterns being put in by the indexes as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders that started last July 97 with the left shoulder. In that context, a bear market ralley back to a nearby moving average or a resistance level shouldn't be unexpected. If I interpret the chart actions of many stocks and group indices, I have observed during the past few weeks, this makes sense. Having said that, I would expect resistance to set in at a prior support (which having been breached is now resistance) or at least a pause at a nearby moving average. I would also take the liberty to project the upward bias (although it may only be temporary) to an entire group or at least a few favorites and even leaders, while it lasted. My take is that we are at prior resistance on the DOW at 8188 and we are but a 1/2% from that level now. I haven't checked the other indices, but a finding similar wouldn't surprise me. And last but not least, if we are indeed in a right shoulder, the left shoulder would imply that we could stay here for the rest of the year, trapped in this range. Let us hope that during that time, some of the real problems of the world will be solved and Iran & Afganistan don't initiate a war that wraps Pakistan and India in it, nukes and all! Get those shorts ready, you've only a day or two, maybe. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:18:39 -0400 FWIW, APCC has long been a favorite of WON, going back a number of years. May have had something to do with his selection, going with a stock he was familiar with. Tom W -----Original Message----- >I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was rather >poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting the >chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in other >charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of weeks. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:35:10 -0400 They certainly make the best products in that category IMHO. I won't use anything else! Probably have a total of 250 of them at work. I have two at home! Frank Wolynski At 22:18 9/23/98 -0400, you wrote: >FWIW, APCC has long been a favorite of WON, going back a number of >years. May have had something to do with his selection, going with a >stock he was familiar with. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, September 23, 1998 9:59 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 > > >>I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was >rather >>poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting >the >>chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in >other >>charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of >weeks. >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400 Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3% Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional month or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted, this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's the wave of the future. While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and new high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less ground over the past month + ). Were I holding any of them right now, likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is going. Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad boy, doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean cruise! Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 24 Sep 1998 13:19:36 GMT On Wed, 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400, you wrote: :Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3% : Why oh why (can somebody tell me?) are the CME premarket futures negative??? :Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments :today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC :meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear :signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional month :or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted, :this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world :economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's :the wave of the future. Once I heard of Mr. G's remarks, I took a cynical spin and think that their is sentiment or pressure for a rate cut within the administration. Hey, it adds up: Clinton is not realing in the pop polls, but he will be if the economy sputters. The elections are 6 weeks away, and they are crucial to Democratic power. What will influence the outcome? You don't have to have a PHD in economics to know the answer: rate cut. Question is how soon? Tuesday? Wouldn't surprise me. :While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may :tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and new :high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt :participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by :the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the :new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less :ground over the past month + ). Were I holding any of them right now, :likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is :going. : :Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late :Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and :decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad boy, :doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean :cruise! : :Tom W : Batten down those hatches, Tom, and good luck! BTW, if you don't have a surge suppressor, you might want to think about getting one. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 24 Sep 1998 06:20:53 -0700 (PDT) Loads of groups trading above their 50d. Those with asterisks are also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200). Business Svcs *C-Integrated Systems C-Memory Devices *C-Mini-Micro C-Optical Recognition *C-Services *C-SW Internet *C-SW Medl *C-SW Enterprise Electronic-Misc Components Electrical Connectors Medical-Biomed/Genetics Medical-Drugs-Ethical *Medical-Drugs-Divers *Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries *Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs Medical-Hospitals *Medical-Medical Prods *Cable TV O&G-Machinery/Equip O&G-US E&P O&G-Prod/Pipeline O&G-US Integ *Drug Stores *Super/Mini Mkts *Telecom Svcs Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases. If you are picky about bases, pickings are still slim. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 24 Sep 1998 07:07:37 -0700 Waded back in today with THQI CPWR PAYX JKHY GMSTF. Best bases I could find, some extended beyond buy point, but all had valid breakouts this week. THQI was esp. impressive. At 06:20 AM 9/24/98 -0700, you wrote: > > >Loads of groups trading above their 50d. Those with asterisks are >also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200). > > Business Svcs >*C-Integrated Systems > C-Memory Devices >*C-Mini-Micro > C-Optical Recognition >*C-Services >*C-SW Internet >*C-SW Medl >*C-SW Enterprise > Electronic-Misc Components > Electrical Connectors > Medical-Biomed/Genetics > Medical-Drugs-Ethical >*Medical-Drugs-Divers >*Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries >*Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs > Medical-Hospitals >*Medical-Medical Prods >*Cable TV > O&G-Machinery/Equip > O&G-US E&P > O&G-Prod/Pipeline > O&G-US Integ >*Drug Stores >*Super/Mini Mkts >*Telecom Svcs > >Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases. If you are >picky about bases, pickings are still slim. > >--Db > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: baker Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Date: 24 Sep 1998 10:09:01 -0400 ed: i agree 100 %. email me at Baker@blazenet.net Rossi1080@aol.com wrote: > I have been watching SBL Symbol Technologies for awhile now and predict this > stock to be a big winner. They are around thier 52wk high and have an enormous > industry strength. Watch Symbol and buy on dips. There technology is only > becoming more in demand they are going no where but uppppppp. > > enjoy the club, and i appreciate all your input. Thanks > > Ed > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Wadding back in... Date: 24 Sep 1998 16:18:35 +0200 At 07:07 AM 24/09/98 -0700, you wrote: >Waded back in today with THQI CPWR PAYX JKHY GMSTF. Best bases I could find, >some extended beyond buy point, but all had valid breakouts this week. THQI >was >esp. impressive. Nice portfolio, Tim. Bought BMET yesterday. Bought DELL today (my $NDX stock). Will add or remove depending on what the market and stocks do. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 24 Sep 1998 08:42:24 -0700 (PDT) And you get all this info from WOW Pro and Dial Data? WOW! TM ---dbphoenix wrote: > > > > Loads of groups trading above their 50d. Those with asterisks are > also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200). > > Business Svcs > *C-Integrated Systems > C-Memory Devices > *C-Mini-Micro > C-Optical Recognition > *C-Services > *C-SW Internet > *C-SW Medl > *C-SW Enterprise > Electronic-Misc Components > Electrical Connectors > Medical-Biomed/Genetics > Medical-Drugs-Ethical > *Medical-Drugs-Divers > *Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries > *Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs > Medical-Hospitals > *Medical-Medical Prods > *Cable TV > O&G-Machinery/Equip > O&G-US E&P > O&G-Prod/Pipeline > O&G-US Integ > *Drug Stores > *Super/Mini Mkts > *Telecom Svcs > > Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases. If you are > picky about bases, pickings are still slim. > > --Db > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 24 Sep 1998 09:01:41 -0700 (PDT) <> Any charting program that allows you to create group composites can do the same thing. The time-consuming part is creating the groups themselves. It's not something I'd want to do twice. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - Humour AMZN Date: 25 Sep 1998 05:22:56 +1200 What conference would be complete without some levity? Herasimchuk at Global Marine stole the show with his comparison of the valuations of his company and Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq). He compared Global's price-to-sales ratio of 1.8 to Amazon.com's at 17, among other figures. Since selling books on the Internet is considered a high-tech business and drilling for oil a mile and half beneath 7,000 feet of water isn't, drillers should combine under one Web site -- - and sell oil and drilling services over the Internet. If Global's stock got the same valuation as Amazon.com, it'd be at 300, he said. It trades at about 12 1/2 per share. But an analyst pointed out (tongue in cheek) that Amazon hasn't produced any earnings yet, (compared to the oil stocks) to disappoint Wall Street expectations! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 24 Sep 1998 14:23:18 -0400 Dan, Best answer I can give to why the futures were neg Wed nite and Thu morning (and the mkt is down today) is that it was some profit taking in response to the rally yesterday. Some still view the past week or so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate. Was just reading the Money report for today from Infobeat, and it made a lot of sense. Looks like the earnings for the tech sector may well surpass most analyst's dreary forecasts. Oil sector still looks weak, so the techs may lead the way out of this correction. Not a bad group to have as leadership. Hatches are battened down, hurricane preps are nearly complete, just have to finish bottling some tap water and doing some cooking so have something to eat cold if lose electricity. That which I can control is pretty well done, the dead tree and the sailboat are pretty much on their own. Hopefully Georges will continue as forecast and pass thru the Keys into the Gulf, giving us no worse than some tropical storm conditions with lots of rain and blustery winds. At least I get half of Thursday and all of Friday off with pay. Compensation of sorts. I do agree that Greenspan is under some pressure, but he has withstood domestic political pressure before, and an embattled president is even less effective against a highly successful FOMC chairman today than he was 6 months or a year ago. Suspect the greater pressure comes from international aspects and individuals. Tom W -----Original Message----- On Wed, 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400, you wrote: :Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3% : Why oh why (can somebody tell me?) are the CME premarket futures negative??? :Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments :today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC :meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear :signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional month :or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted, :this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world :economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's :the wave of the future. Once I heard of Mr. G's remarks, I took a cynical spin and think that their is sentiment or pressure for a rate cut within the administration. Hey, it adds up: Clinton is not realing in the pop polls, but he will be if the economy sputters. The elections are 6 weeks away, and they are crucial to Democratic power. What will influence the outcome? You don't have to have a PHD in economics to know the answer: rate cut. Question is how soon? Tuesday? Wouldn't surprise me. :While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may :tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and new :high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt :participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by :the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the :new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less :ground over the past month + ). Were I holding any of them right now, :likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is :going. : :Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late :Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and :decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad boy, :doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean :cruise! : :Tom W : Batten down those hatches, Tom, and good luck! BTW, if you don't have a surge suppressor, you might want to think about getting one. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks Continued Date: 24 Sep 1998 17:57:17 -0800 One more stock I forgot in my previous post, mentioned by Db a few days ago, spiked out of a base of sorts today - OSTE. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:11:34 -0400 Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart. Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:11:34 -0400 Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart. Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QLGC Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:14:12 -0400 Sorry, also why deosn't it show any earnings stability? Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QLGC Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:14:12 -0400 Sorry, also why deosn't it show any earnings stability? Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 24 Sep 1998 23:00:30 -0400 At 06:20 AM 9/24/98 -0700, you wrote: > >Loads of groups trading above their 50d. Those with asterisks are >also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200). > > Business Svcs >*C-Integrated Systems ...snipped... > >Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases. If you are >picky about bases, pickings are still slim. > >--Db > My surrogate list from C-Integrated Systems Am I missing any of the good ones? APEX, DSLGF, FDPC, HYC, JKHY, KRON, MEDW, MRCY, ORCL, PMS, PRLS, PXXI, QSII, SCHI, SUL, SUNQ, SYMX, WIND, XYBR. Great charts: JKHY, PMS, KRON (what a base, which failed), WIND and what has to be the neatest technology of the year, XYBR. They make wearable computers. No kidding. Unique, at least for now! No TA included in above observations of the charts. Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A Date: 25 Sep 1998 05:29:05 -0400 Ari, Can't speak for other sites and systems, but on Daily Graphs Online the "growth rate" is measuring earnings growth over 5 years when there is 5 years data available. In the case of QLGC, the fifth year was a loss, thus growth can't be measured in a simple arithmetic formula that can't deal with negatives. As to the lack of a rating on earnings stability, the same reason would appear to apply. I would suggest an email to Daily Graphs pointing out this deficiency, and suggesting an improvement in their formulas. Tom W -----Original Message----- Cc: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's >growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart. > Thanks Ari > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:15:16 GMT On Thu, 24 Sep 1998 14:23:18 -0400, you wrote: :Dan, :Best answer I can give to why the futures were neg Wed nite and Thu :morning (and the mkt is down today) is that it was some profit taking :in response to the rally yesterday. Some still view the past week or :so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate. Well, in a sense EVERY rally is legitimate. After all, they are created by people putting their money where their mouths are, right? However, they could get their heads handed to them if they're not nimble, as they say. I'm impressed with Jeffry's analysis that Thursday looked like it would shape up to be a distribution day. He had the nail on the head, and I was taken by surprise. However, I kept my money in my pocket. I'm sniffing around, but I've taken too many baths to jump before I feel I have my feet beneath me. Sometimes I feel kinda clueless about the markets, and sometimes I have a good enough feel to make some real money, and I agree with Db that lately, it's been a day-trader's market. I guess you could think of it as a potential "sucker's rally" if people were buying with the thought that they can buy and hold for months without concerns. : :Was just reading the Money report for today from Infobeat, and it made :a lot of sense. Looks like the earnings for the tech sector may well :surpass most analyst's dreary forecasts. Oil sector still looks weak, :so the techs may lead the way out of this correction. Not a bad group :to have as leadership. Oil futures are up about $1 a barrel over where they were a few weeks ago. That's the first significant move up since the end of last year, I believe. If it holds, who knows? However, I don't know what has driven the prices up. Around .15-.20 advance yesterday, as well. : :Hatches are battened down, hurricane preps are nearly complete, just :have to finish bottling some tap water and doing some cooking so have :something to eat cold if lose electricity. That which I can control is :pretty well done, the dead tree and the sailboat are pretty much on :their own. Hopefully Georges will continue as forecast and pass thru :the Keys into the Gulf, giving us no worse than some tropical storm :conditions with lots of rain and blustery winds. At least I get half :of Thursday and all of Friday off with pay. Compensation of sorts. You're putting us on with that bit about the dead tree and sailboat, right? :I do agree that Greenspan is under some pressure, but he has withstood :domestic political pressure before, and an embattled president is even :less effective against a highly successful FOMC chairman today than he :was 6 months or a year ago. Suspect the greater pressure comes from :international aspects and individuals. : :Tom W : Seems to me, he isn't worried. He's not feeling under pressure to hold the rate steady right now. In fact, that whole paradigm seems to have vanished like a fog in the morning sun! Surprise! Ergo, my statement about taking a cynical spin. In the face of the elections, the tension and antagonism you site above between the administration and *independent* FOMA, are conveniently disolved. That's my view, but you may have a more sophisticated take on all this. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 06:29:29 -0700 (PDT) <<>>Some still view the past week or :so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate.<< Well, in a sense EVERY rally is legitimate. After all, they are created by people putting their money where their mouths are, right? However, they could get their heads handed to them if they're not nimble, as they say.>> We've already discussed trendline and price resistance, but there are other things to consider, such as that since 1960 the best bear market rally failure has been 12.04% (according to Woodward). So if we can't get much past that, much less all the various resistance levels, we have a problem. Consider also that the probability of coming out of a severe correction with only a V bottom is slim. CS has confused the issue with all these rally confirmations. If I remember correctly, last year the confirmation didn't come through till January. This time they've been popping up like Crocus in the Spring. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Date: 25 Sep 1998 06:37:36 -0700 (PDT) <> I don't include foreign stocks or IPOs or stocks which are below $10 or less than 50K ADV, so my list is considerably shorter than yours, but I do have BRKT and IMNT. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 15:52:40 +0200 >We've already discussed trendline and price resistance, but there are >other things to consider, such as that since 1960 the best bear market >rally failure has been 12.04% (according to Woodward). So if we can't >get much past that, much less all the various resistance levels, we >have a problem. Consider also that the probability of coming out of a >severe correction with only a V bottom is slim. It was almost unthinkable that the bears wouldn't show their claws again near the massive overhead resistance we were (are) at. We'll now have to wait and see wether we begin a new short term down-trend, to replace the short-term uptrend we were in. I would not be mad if YHOO crashed right back to were it came from. B^) Haven't look at charts yet, but has anyone noticed any failed break-outs yet? BRCM sure is acting funny. On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't buy DELL @ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split). Not bad, during a bear market... -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 07:33:40 -0700 (PDT) <> Keep in mind that not everyone agrees that this is a bear market (like me). Therefore, what's normal need not apply. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 15:03:44 GMT On Fri, 25 Sep 1998 15:52:40 +0200, you wrote: : :On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't buy = DELL :@ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split). Not bad, :during a bear market... : : : :-- Johan Van Houtven : I get a case of the shoulda-couldas when I see what DELL and YHOO did off of their lows. Dell's up about 4% today over 65, off of a post-split low of around 40. Yahoo at 118 looks nice off of a low around 80. My oh my. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 19:22:08 +0200 >I get a case of the shoulda-couldas when I see what DELL and YHOO did >off of their lows. Dell's up about 4% today over 65, off of a >post-split low of around 40. Yahoo at 118 looks nice off of a low >around 80. My oh my. To make it even worse, Dan, just imagine that you had put your money in DELL one year ago. Did almost nothing, except visit this list once in a while... to laugh. Can you image the problems you would be having? Something like: (You talking to your significant other) "What would you prefer darling, Maui or the Virgin Islands?" (Your SO) "Let me think about that on the palne to Fort Meyers this weekend." :) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 19:14:45 +0200 At 07:33 AM 25-09-98 -0700, you wrote: > ><buy DELL @ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split). > Not bad, >during a bear market...>> > >Keep in mind that not everyone agrees that this is a bear market (like >me). Therefore, what's normal need not apply. Db, I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than 20%. If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market. Just wanted to clear that up. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:51:20 -0400 > I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than 20%. > > If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree > completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market. > Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates? Why is the world in shambles? What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end? Why all the layoffs? Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up? The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I beleive we will have great market. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 20:06:13 +0200 Peter, We are talking about the US economy. Considering the disasters in other places in the world, the US is doing just fine. of course the US is feeling some of the effects from this, but is not that you are all in dispear and have a hard time earning a decent living, right? Still extremely low unemployment. Still the best place to be in the world. Maybe the economic bear market will come, but it is not here yet. It's the stock markets job to predict it. And they are trying to do just that. Anyway, what we think about the economy is immaterial what the market is doing is important. And today it is working hard to keep the short term uptrend in tact. At 01:51 PM 25-09-98 -0400, you wrote: >> I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than >20%. >> >> If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree >> completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market. >> >Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates? > >Why is the world in shambles? > >What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end? > >Why all the layoffs? > >Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up? > >The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I >beleive we will have great market. > >Peter > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 11:20:16 -0700 On 10:51 AM 9/25/98 , Peter Newell Said: >> I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than >20%. >> >> If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree >> completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market. >> >Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates? > Defensive action to KEEP the economy rolling. >Why is the world in shambles? > Not our fault! >What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end? > Media hype? >Why all the layoffs? > Among restricted sectors/companies. Where's the statistics showing sig. increasing unemployment? Still one of the most employed countries! >Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up? > Restricted sectors/co's again. Esp those w/ international exposure. >The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I >beleive we will have great market. > >Peter I agree near-term volatility seems extreme, indices bumping against MAs. Tight stops! Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 14:15:01 -0400 > Still extremely low unemployment. > > Still the best place to be in the world. > > Maybe the economic bear market will come, but it is not here yet. It's the > stock markets job to predict it. And they are trying to do just that. > > Anyway, what we think about the economy is immaterial what the market is > doing is important. And today it is working hard to keep the short term > uptrend in tact. No argument here. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 14:34:32 -0400 > >Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates? > > > Defensive action to KEEP the economy rolling. > Ok > >Why is the world in shambles? > > > Not our fault! Doesn't matter > > >What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end? > > > Media hype? I found that piece of information buried in the middle of a very boring article same way I found out about high inventories last year > >Why all the layoffs? > > > Among restricted sectors/companies. Where's the statistics showing sig. > increasing unemployment? Still one of the most employed countries! > hope so > >Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up? > > > Restricted sectors/co's again. Esp those w/ international exposure. hope so > >The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I > >beleive we will have great market. > > > >Peter > > I agree near-term volatility seems extreme, indices bumping against MAs. Tight > stops! Ever seen this type of volatility resolve itself in a good way? I find it interesting that when the Dow was dropping to 6600 in 1997 that this group was concerned and now I hear "But the market must go up". Anyhow, I am ready and waiting for the next rally. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] OFF TOPIC: Market Levity Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:20:17 -0700 TODAY'S STOCK MARKET REPORT Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary. Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading. Knives were up sharply. Cows steered into a bull market. Pencils lost a few points. Hiking equipment was trailing. Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline. Weights were up in heavy trading. Light switches were off. Mining equipment hit rock bottom. Diapers remain unchanged. Shipping lines stayed at an even keel. The market for raisins dried up. Coca Cola fizzled. Caterpillar stock inched up a bit. Sun peaked at midday. Balloon prices were inflated. Scott Tissue touched a new bottom. And batteries exploded in an attempt to recharge the market. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:28:59 -0700 (PDT) <> I didn't mean to ignite a debate. I was only stating an opinion. I try to be deliberate and accurate in my choice of words, though my efforts often fail. And though many people whose opinions I respect are calling this a bear market, even though inflation is low, employment is high, most everybody is doing quite well, commodities are low, the economy is not in the toilet, etc., I can't help wondering what they'd call a market in which all of these things were their opposites. It seems to me that bear markets can be called only in retrospect. For one thing, they should remain at the >20% level not for a few days but for weeks, if not months. There should be despair, fear, capitulation, a wholesale exit by amateurs from the markets. But there hasn't been any of that. We still buy the dips, the leadership is still the same, PEs are still too high, we're getting repeated CS confirmations, more than one rally has been broad-based and substantial, we've reached all the back to resistance . . . What word does one use for the kind of market in which everything's going to he** and people are terrified? Serious bear? Severe bear? One could argue that groups such as O&G and semis are in their own bear markets, or even that small-caps as a whole have been in their own bear market for a lengthy period of time. But at any point in the market cycle there're going to be groups that are at the bottom of the barrel. That doesn't mean that there are no opportunities. One can't deny that day and swing traders haven't had spectacular opportunities in internet and medical stocks, to name two. So whether one calls this a bear market or not is really no skin off my nose. I'd caution newbies, though, that "bear" is an emotion-laden word, and to be careful about making assumptions about what's going to happen based solely on preconceptions about a bear market is. O'N's advice is still the best. Watch the daily averages and daily charts and let the market tell you what it's doing. It couldn't care less what one thinks or expects or anticipates or believes. If the market breaks through resistance, fine. If it doesn't and it retests the lows, also fine. But it's distracting to state that the market "can't possibly" do such and such, or the market "just has to" do so and so. Remember the decline and fall of Elaine Garzarelli? --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OFF TOPIC: Market Levity Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:41:55 -0700 (PDT) ROTFLMAO!!! Thanks, Tim! --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Date: 25 Sep 1998 17:46:36 -0600 On Sep 22, 3:34pm, Walter Stock wrote: > Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only > > Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of > my revered books. References to inflation outnumber those to > deflation by 10 to 1. Why ? These texts were all written well > after World War Two, where inflation has been the norm. > > If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know. > > Walter Stock > - - >-- End of excerpt from Walter Stock Walter, I'm interested. So, how does a canslim'er structure a portfolio during deflationary periods? 30-year zero-coupon US bonds? Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 26 Sep 1998 13:21:58 +1200 They say the market rises on a wall of worry. So the article below must be healthy for the market :-) Does anyone think this have any impact on the US market. If not, why