Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M

From: asosis@ca.ibm.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2001 13:19:12 -0400
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Sorry Tim.
I have misquoted you.   My apologies.

Anna


Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent by:  owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com


To:   canslim@lists.xmission.com
cc:
Subject:  Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M


No, I did not say that. What I said was that after 4-5 days of steady
distribution in YOUR STOCKS, your stops should have taken you out. Not the
same thing at all...

On 09:50 AM 6/6/01, asosis@ca.ibm.com Said:
>I have asked this question before and I recall Tim posting that after 4-5
>days one should be out of the market.
>
>
>Anna
>
>
>
>"Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>@lists.xmission.com on 06/06/2001
>12:41:08 PM
>
>Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
>Sent by:  owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
>
>To:   <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>cc:
>Subject:  Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
>
>
>Hi Ian,
>
>I am not the best expert on distribution days, but I believe I recall a
>member posting recently on an article from IBD, or maybe from Ask Bill
>O'Neil, and it indicated that he was not concerned about distribution days
>until there were more of them.
>
>Maybe someone still has the ref and can repost it?
>
>Tom Worley
>stkguru@netside.net
>AIM: TexWorley
>  ----- Original Message -----
>  From: Ian
>  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>  Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 12:22 PM
>  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
>
>  Tom:
>
>  My recent thinking has been along the lines you described below.
However,
>  if we close down today on increasing volume from yesterday (on the
NASDAQ,
>  volume is already a very healthy 900,000,000 and its only 9:00 am on the
>  west coast)., then we will have had the 4th profressional distribution
day
>  in a short timeframe (May 22, 29, 30 were the other 3). How many does it
>  take to make WON cautious?
>
>
>  Thanks,
>
>  Ian
>
>
>  Of course, if the market reverses today and it closes up on another big
>  volume surge - I will think that is very bullish :)
>
>
>  ----- Original Message -----
>  From: Tom Worley
>  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>  Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 5:51 AM
>  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
>
>  Hi Steve,
>
>  I didn't see the IBD article, but had already noticed the c&h formed by
>  the DOW 30, NYSE Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000. All formed the
>  handle well in the upper half of the cup, and built a 2+ week tight
>  handle. In the case of the first three, the recent two week correction
>  brought them right back to the handle, and it provided support, a
healthy
>  sign. In the case of the R2000, it never reached the handle.
>
>  In the case of the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite, they also formed a
>  c&h, however the handle formed in the lower half of the cup. Both were
>  close to the 50% level, but not quite there, with the Naz Comp closer.
>  Their handle was not as tight, and the recent correction brought them
more
>  towards the lower side of the handle.
>
>  Treatment of bad news is much more positive today than just a month ago.
>  XLNX (a chip maker), for example, is being credited with inspiring
>  yesterday's big rally in the Naz. What they said is that order
>  cancellations have slowed. Stated another way, that means that as bad as
>  it already is, it is getting worse at a slower rate. Not only did the
>  stock add nearly 10%, it rallied the market. A month ago, it would have
>  taken a statement that order cancellations have stopped, or that order
>  cancellations were being completely offset by new orders, to have
achieved
>  this.
>
>  I review earnings warnings daily, and I see a steady sign that warnings
>  that a company will miss either/both earnings or revenues is more often
>  being received as a positive and a price gain. I also note that where
the
>  shortfall is quantified, in most cases it is only slightly below current
>  forecasts, where before most were large drops. To me this signals that
the
>  investment community believes (or wants to believe) that the worst is
>  over, the 2nd quarter won't be very pretty, but by the 4th qtr
everything
>  will be looking pretty good.
>
>  From an economics standpoint, I am generally pleased with what I see. I
>  still expect a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, and there is probably
a
>  50/50 chance of another 50 BP. I still think 25 BP makes more sense,
tho.
>
>  We appear to be into the usual summer doldrums now. Volume is down, and
>  likely to remain that way until after Labor Day. So events (earnings,
>  economics, etc) could cause greater volatility. But aside from that, I
see
>  a lot less volatility in the market.
>
>  I also note that the IPO market is coming to life. I am seeing as many
>  deals, if not more, being completed as are being withdrawn. And quite a
>  few of the ones done opened with a nice premium.
>
>  Bottom line, "M" is ultimately determined by investor sentiment, and
right
>  now that sentiment is quite positive despite what the media sometimes
>  chooses to report.
>
>  Tom Worley
>  stkguru@netside.net
>  AIM: TexWorley
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: SKutney@aol.com
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>   Sent: Tuesday, June 05, 2001 10:09 PM
>   Subject: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
>
>
>
>    I was wondering what others thought of the general directions of the
>   market?
>
>    IBD recently made a big deal about the "cup with handle"  pattern of
the
>
>   major indexes. I don't get the feel from reading the paper that they
>   think
>   the market is going down. They expect the 7% stop to just get you out.
>
>   I take that paper each day and draw in red trend lines to remind me of
>   the
>   general direction of the market. I see three major indexes plus the
>   mutual
>   fund index breaking past the current trend line on real low volume. I
>   always
>   thought that the stock market is like trying to keep a ball up in the
air
>
>   with a water hose. The greater the volume the more is will go up.
>
>   I see stocks like CPN and SHFL which have been strong leaders breaking
>   down.
>   I see other stocks ready to break into new highs.
>
>   Steve
>
>
>
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Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

Tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!


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