Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M

From: "David Squires" <dcsquires1@home.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2001 12:58:07 -0500
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Regarding index distribution, 4-5 days is the correct amount. Of course, as
some have noted, you should watch your stocks closely after this not
outright sell. Also, Doug made a good point on below ADV distribution. One
of the 3 recent dist. days was very low volume so it is a gray one.

DSquires

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <asosis@ca.ibm.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 12:19 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M


> Sorry Tim.
> I have misquoted you.   My apologies.
>
> Anna
>
>
> Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
> Sent by:  owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>
>
> To:   canslim@lists.xmission.com
> cc:
> Subject:  Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
>
>
> No, I did not say that. What I said was that after 4-5 days of steady
> distribution in YOUR STOCKS, your stops should have taken you out. Not the
> same thing at all...
>
> On 09:50 AM 6/6/01, asosis@ca.ibm.com Said:
> >I have asked this question before and I recall Tim posting that after 4-5
> >days one should be out of the market.
> >
> >
> >Anna
> >
> >
> >
> >"Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>@lists.xmission.com on 06/06/2001
> >12:41:08 PM
> >
> >Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >
> >Sent by:  owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >
> >
> >To:   <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> >cc:
> >Subject:  Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
> >
> >
> >Hi Ian,
> >
> >I am not the best expert on distribution days, but I believe I recall a
> >member posting recently on an article from IBD, or maybe from Ask Bill
> >O'Neil, and it indicated that he was not concerned about distribution
days
> >until there were more of them.
> >
> >Maybe someone still has the ref and can repost it?
> >
> >Tom Worley
> >stkguru@netside.net
> >AIM: TexWorley
> >  ----- Original Message -----
> >  From: Ian
> >  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >  Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 12:22 PM
> >  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
> >
> >  Tom:
> >
> >  My recent thinking has been along the lines you described below.
> However,
> >  if we close down today on increasing volume from yesterday (on the
> NASDAQ,
> >  volume is already a very healthy 900,000,000 and its only 9:00 am on
the
> >  west coast)., then we will have had the 4th profressional distribution
> day
> >  in a short timeframe (May 22, 29, 30 were the other 3). How many does
it
> >  take to make WON cautious?
> >
> >
> >  Thanks,
> >
> >  Ian
> >
> >
> >  Of course, if the market reverses today and it closes up on another big
> >  volume surge - I will think that is very bullish :)
> >
> >
> >  ----- Original Message -----
> >  From: Tom Worley
> >  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >  Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 5:51 AM
> >  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
> >
> >  Hi Steve,
> >
> >  I didn't see the IBD article, but had already noticed the c&h formed by
> >  the DOW 30, NYSE Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000. All formed the
> >  handle well in the upper half of the cup, and built a 2+ week tight
> >  handle. In the case of the first three, the recent two week correction
> >  brought them right back to the handle, and it provided support, a
> healthy
> >  sign. In the case of the R2000, it never reached the handle.
> >
> >  In the case of the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite, they also formed a
> >  c&h, however the handle formed in the lower half of the cup. Both were
> >  close to the 50% level, but not quite there, with the Naz Comp closer.
> >  Their handle was not as tight, and the recent correction brought them
> more
> >  towards the lower side of the handle.
> >
> >  Treatment of bad news is much more positive today than just a month
ago.
> >  XLNX (a chip maker), for example, is being credited with inspiring
> >  yesterday's big rally in the Naz. What they said is that order
> >  cancellations have slowed. Stated another way, that means that as bad
as
> >  it already is, it is getting worse at a slower rate. Not only did the
> >  stock add nearly 10%, it rallied the market. A month ago, it would have
> >  taken a statement that order cancellations have stopped, or that order
> >  cancellations were being completely offset by new orders, to have
> achieved
> >  this.
> >
> >  I review earnings warnings daily, and I see a steady sign that warnings
> >  that a company will miss either/both earnings or revenues is more often
> >  being received as a positive and a price gain. I also note that where
> the
> >  shortfall is quantified, in most cases it is only slightly below
current
> >  forecasts, where before most were large drops. To me this signals that
> the
> >  investment community believes (or wants to believe) that the worst is
> >  over, the 2nd quarter won't be very pretty, but by the 4th qtr
> everything
> >  will be looking pretty good.
> >
> >  From an economics standpoint, I am generally pleased with what I see. I
> >  still expect a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, and there is probably
> a
> >  50/50 chance of another 50 BP. I still think 25 BP makes more sense,
> tho.
> >
> >  We appear to be into the usual summer doldrums now. Volume is down, and
> >  likely to remain that way until after Labor Day. So events (earnings,
> >  economics, etc) could cause greater volatility. But aside from that, I
> see
> >  a lot less volatility in the market.
> >
> >  I also note that the IPO market is coming to life. I am seeing as many
> >  deals, if not more, being completed as are being withdrawn. And quite a
> >  few of the ones done opened with a nice premium.
> >
> >  Bottom line, "M" is ultimately determined by investor sentiment, and
> right
> >  now that sentiment is quite positive despite what the media sometimes
> >  chooses to report.
> >
> >  Tom Worley
> >  stkguru@netside.net
> >  AIM: TexWorley
> >   ----- Original Message -----
> >   From: SKutney@aol.com
> >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >   Sent: Tuesday, June 05, 2001 10:09 PM
> >   Subject: [CANSLIM] Direction of M
> >
> >
> >
> >    I was wondering what others thought of the general directions of the
> >   market?
> >
> >    IBD recently made a big deal about the "cup with handle"  pattern of
> the
> >
> >   major indexes. I don't get the feel from reading the paper that they
> >   think
> >   the market is going down. They expect the 7% stop to just get you out.
> >
> >   I take that paper each day and draw in red trend lines to remind me of
> >   the
> >   general direction of the market. I see three major indexes plus the
> >   mutual
> >   fund index breaking past the current trend line on real low volume. I
> >   always
> >   thought that the stock market is like trying to keep a ball up in the
> air
> >
> >   with a water hose. The greater the volume the more is will go up.
> >
> >   I see stocks like CPN and SHFL which have been strong leaders breaking
> >   down.
> >   I see other stocks ready to break into new highs.
> >
> >   Steve
> >
> >
> >
> >-
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>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> Tim@OreRockOn.com
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
>
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