Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Sat, 18 May 2002 10:34:30 -0400
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Thanks for the review, Ernie. I know so little about Fibinocci ratios =
and using them for projections. Does it only work on indexes, or can it =
be applied to individual stocks as well?
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Saturday, May 18, 2002 10:28 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Tom,
=20
While RUT's waters are indeed muddy, I will offer up this possible =
projection as it is the highest of a group of low probability =
projections.
=20
1.382 times the move down from 4-17 to 5-10 yields 43.60 points adding =
these points to the low of 5-10 gives a target price of 535.84. If the =
up-trend line drawn from the lows of 9-21 & 2-20 holds (and that's a big =
if) this price target of 535.84 could be reached by 5-23 give or take a =
few days.
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Saturday, May 18, 2002 9:07 AM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
Tom,
=20
I have done some work on the Russell 2000 and I have found definite =
Fibinocci ratios at work in the price movement of this index. =
Unfortunately I don't have a charting program that I can annotate and up =
load to the FTP site, so this may get a little confusing if you don't =
have a chart of the RUT in front of you as you read this.
=20
I started my analysis from the 9-21-01 low.
=20
A .382 retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a down side price =
target of 453.63. The move down that began on 1-9 and ended on 2-20 had =
an intra-day price low of 457.21.
=20
50% of the price move from 9-21 to 1-9 is 64.73 points. Add this to the =
price low on 2-20 and we get a target price of 521.94. Also 1.382 times =
the price move from 1-9 down to 2-20 yields a price target of 520.60. =
These are two price projections from previous moves that are clustered =
together (521.94 & 520.60) the actual intra-day high of the move that =
began on 2-20 and terminated on 4-17 was 523.79.
=20
A 50% retracement of the move from 2-20 up to 4-17 yields a price target =
of 490.50. On 5-10 the RUT reached an intra-day low of 492.24, which =
also penetrated the up-trend line drawn from the lows made on 9-21 & =
2-20. The RUT then turned up and moved back above this up-trend line. =
Over the past few days it has traded back down to and has almost touched =
this up-trend line.
=20
The $64,000 question is of course what's next? Unfortunately in the case =
of RUT the waters could not be more muddy. I dare not even venture my =
best guess because there are no high probabilities that I see. Will just =
have to let the market give me more info.
=20
E
=20
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Friday, May 17, 2002 9:42 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
=20
Ernie,
=20
Have you ever tried to apply the same type review to the Russell 2000, =
or any other small cap index? If so, I would be interested in the =
results.
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Friday, May 17, 2002 10:35 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
Well the 5-7 low has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I =
have been anticipating, unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it =
to last much longer.
=20
The S&P is currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 =
- - 1111. Unless it can move through this resistance area with conviction =
this move will likely be over in a matter of days if not already.
=20
I still see the forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable =
outcome for the termination of this move. The most likely target is 1112 =
on 5-22.
=20
NAZ doesn't look too good either. A 50% retracement of the move from =
the high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of =
1753.26, Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the =
intraday high for today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs =
penetrated the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 =
and 4-17 and then closed at or below this trend line.
=20
Additionally a 38.2 % retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the =
larger move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a =
target price of 1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ would on =
5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on =
1-9-02 and 3-11.
=20
The NAZ like the S&P is about to or has already reached the end of this =
current upswing in M. =20
=20
E
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 4:38 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
=20
Hi group,
=20
Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price =
action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming =
reaction to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very =
far. I call it a reaction because the downtrend was very technically =
damaging from my point of view, and I don't see much chance of a =
fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the market looks right =
now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate then I may be =
forced to change my interpretation.
=20
I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The =
highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to =
occur within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out =
this resistance level then the next most likely target from which to =
expect a turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the =
upper part of that range being the most likely target.
=20
E
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If you have received this email in error please notify the=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Thanks for the review, Ernie. I know so little =
about=20
Fibinocci ratios and using them for projections. Does it only work on =
indexes,=20
or can it be applied to individual stocks as well?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, May 18, 2002 10:28 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">While=20
RUT=92s waters are indeed muddy, I will offer up this possible =
projection as it is=20
the highest of a group of low probability=20
projections.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">1.382=20
times the move down from 4-17 to 5-10 yields 43.60 points adding these =
points to=20
the low of 5-10 gives a target price of 535.84. If the up-trend line =
drawn from=20
the lows of 9-21 & 2-20 holds (and that=92s a big if) this price =
target of=20
535.84 could be reached by 5-23 give or take a few=20
days.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle22><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Hill, Ernie=20
<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Saturday, May =
18, 2002=20
9:07 AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3D#003300 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#003300"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">I =
have done some=20
work on the Russell 2000 and I have found definite Fibinocci ratios at =
work in=20
the price movement of this index. Unfortunately I don=92t have a =
charting program=20
that I can annotate and up load to the FTP site, so this may get a =
little=20
confusing if you don=92t have a chart of the RUT in front of you as you =
read=20
this.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">I =
started my=20
analysis from the 9-21-01 low.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">A =
.382 retracement=20
of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a down side price target of 453.63. =
The move=20
down that began on 1-9 and ended on 2-20 had an intra-day price low of=20
457.21.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">50% =
of the price=20
move from 9-21 to 1-9 is 64.73 points. Add this to the price low on 2-20 =
and we=20
get a target price of 521.94. Also 1.382 times the price move from 1-9 =
down to=20
2-20 yields a price target of 520.60. These are two price projections =
from=20
previous moves that are clustered together (521.94 & 520.60) the =
actual=20
intra-day high of the move that began on 2-20 and terminated on 4-17 was =
523.79.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">A 50% =
retracement=20
of the move from 2-20 up to 4-17 yields a price target of 490.50. On =
5-10 the=20
RUT reached an intra-day low of 492.24, which also penetrated the =
up-trend line=20
drawn from the lows made on 9-21 & 2-20. The RUT then turned up and =
moved=20
back above this up-trend line. Over the past few days it has traded back =
down to=20
and has almost touched this up-trend line.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">The =
$64,000=20
question is of course what=92s next? Unfortunately in the case of RUT =
the waters=20
could not be more muddy. I dare not even venture my best guess because =
there are=20
no high probabilities that I see. Will just have to let the market give =
me more=20
info.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblue size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Tom Worley=20
[mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Friday, May 17, 2002 9:42=20
PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3D#003300 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#003300"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Ernie,</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Have you=20
ever tried to apply the same type review to the Russell 2000, or any =
other small=20
cap index? If so, I would be interested in the =
results.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">-----=20
Original Message ----- <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#003300=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: =
1in"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> Friday, May =
17, 2002=20
10:35 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> RE: =
[CANSLIM]=20
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3D#003300 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#003300"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">Well =
the 5-7 low=20
has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I have been =
anticipating,=20
unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it to last much=20
longer.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">The =
S&P is=20
currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 - 1111. =
Unless it=20
can move through this resistance area with conviction this move will =
likely be=20
over in a matter of days if not already.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">I =
still see the=20
forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable outcome for the =
termination=20
of this move. The most likely target is 1112 on 5-22.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">NAZ =
doesn't look=20
too good either.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>A 50% =
retracement=20
of the move from the high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a =
target price=20
of 1753.26, Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the =
intraday=20
high for today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs penetrated =
the=20
trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and 4-17 and =
then=20
closed at or below this trend line.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
navy">Additionally a 38.2=20
% retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the larger move from the =
high made=20
on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a target price of 1766 which is the =
exact=20
level where the NAZ would on 5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from =
the tops=20
of the highs made on 1-9-02 and 3-11.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">The =
NAZ like the=20
S&P is about to or has already reached the end of this current =
upswing in=20
M.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">E</SPAN></FONT><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Hill, Ernie=20
<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Thursday, May =
09, 2002=20
4:38 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] =
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Hi=20
group,</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Once=20
again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. =
Maybe=20
this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this =
current=20
downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction =
because=20
the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I =
don't=20
see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way =
the=20
market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I =
anticipate=20
then I may be forced to change my interpretation.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">I see=20
very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The =
highest=20
probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur =
within four=20
days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance level =
then=20
the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down would =
be in=20
the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most =
likely=20
target.</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#003300 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #003300; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1.5in"><FONT face=3D"Courier =
New"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'; =
mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><BR><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
*</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">This =
email and=20
any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Corporation are=20
confidential and intended solely for the </SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">use of =
the=20
individual or entity to whom they are addressed. =
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">If you =
have=20
received this email in error please notify the =
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">sender.</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
*</SPAN></CODE></SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#003300><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #003300; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3D"Courier =
New" color=3Dblack=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'; =
mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><BR><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
*</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">This =
email and=20
any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Corporation are=20
confidential and intended solely for the </SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">use of =
the=20
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