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Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] CECO
Date: Thu, 15 Aug 2002 21:04:59 -0400
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I guess it did break out today, but not with much vol.
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 2:44 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CECO
Hi Scott,
No. The rule of undercutting the base is from the prior base *before* =
the stock began it's 25%+ rise. In this case, imagine the V you see more =
recently as part of the flat base which began 4/23. In other words, the =
low you see on 7/22 never undercut the low of the previous base which =
ran approx. Sept-Dec '01. Until the stock truly "fails" an area of =
consolidation (and in this case it has not), you don't reset the base =
count.* Another way to look at is, while the V you see in July is a =
little scary, imagine what might've happened if the market had been =
healthier at the time. Would CECO have continued to build the rest of =
the flat base? Maybe. Would it have staged a break out with some oomph =
behind it on 6/25? Maybe. What will happen next? Don't know. Could firm =
up, finish the consolidation which began in April and break out for =
good. OR....could fail from here. Can't tell until Mr. Market sings and =
the price/volume tells the story. That's why it's imperative to wait for =
a valid breakout before jumping in, it reduces the risk.
I'll stick by my original assessment that what you see right now is an =
odd base that began 4/23.
Katherine
* The idea behind "failing" an area of consolidation is that the gains =
of the prior 25% advance have now been erased. That's why you look at =
the low of the previous base for base count.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Scott Gettis=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 1:29 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CECO
Katherine,
Shouldn't the base count be reset on CECO since the b/o from a flat =
base on 6/24 failed and the curent base undercuts the lows of the flat =
base.
--Scott
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:19 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
HI Mike,
I can tell my response wasn't clear. Let me try again with some =
examples and articles.
In general, it's important to distinguish between a "healthy rising =
stock" and a "base." On one hand, you will have a stock, like CECO, =
which has been rising over time. Each time is rises for a while, then it =
pauses to consolidate. That pause is the "base." Each time the stock =
reaches a new high and then consolidates, it will demonstrate its =
ability to absorb the gains from the previous rise of >=3D25%. That =
pattern that you see along the rising trend line is what you want to see =
in a stock. The problem is, after the stock has done this 3 or 4 times, =
it becomes well-known and obvious, and so it is rare that it can =
continue tracing out this same rising behavior for too much longer. What =
will normally happen is that the stock will often fail in the next =
breakout and/or correct so deeply that it undercuts the low of the =
previous base. That "resets the base count" and you then start over with =
counting bases, assuming of course, that the stock *can* recover. WON =
suggests that if the correction is more than 80% that the stock is too =
badly damaged that it may not recover in any reasonable time period. =
(IBM and WMT come to mind....look back at a 10 year chart of each of =
them and notice what happened after they corrected so deeply. They =
essentially went into years of sideways movement.)
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, so thought it easier =
to write up some notes. See notes on the "Healthy Rising Stock" at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/HealthyRisingStock.JPG
Now, far different than the healthy rising stock is the *type* of =
base that it forms while consolidating. There are many, though there are =
some that are more common, more reliable, and far easier to spot than =
others. I'd rank the ascending base as the most difficult to master. See =
my handwritten notes on types of bases at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/TypesOfBases.JPG
Just to be complete, I've also uploaded quite a few resources =
related to both rising stocks (base counting) and ascending bases. I =
figured it was far easier to do that than to reinvent the wheel and =
describe the ascending base in detail. See them at:
Counting bases:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountingBasesHowTo.doc
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountBasesB4Buy.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/MktWashoutNewBases.JPG
Ascending bases:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/AscendingBaseRally.JPG
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/FindAscendingBases.doc
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BuyPointABase.doc
In summary, there is no such thing as a "long term ascending base" =
as the concept confuses a healthy rising stock pattern over a longer =
time period with the ascending base pattern, which is a particular kind =
of consolidation (>=3D6wks).=20
CECO has been exhibiting the characteristics of a "healthy rising =
stock" and is currently forming a 3rd stage base. CECO is *not* =
currently forming an ascending base. It is forming a very strange base =
on base (flat + C&H) as far as I can tell. I saw many odd patterns like =
this at the September '01 low and many of the stocks were able to =
recover from the V shaped sell off, breakout and move on. Many of the =
retailers, the gaming stocks, homebuilders, security related stocks and =
Aero & Defense come to mind.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 10:20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
Hi Katherine,
I just opened my brand new copy of HTMMIS v 3 and found on P. =
137-138 the topic "Ascending Base". The definition is somewhat similar =
to what you describe:- "Ascending Bases, like flat bases, occur midway =
along a move up after a stock has broken out of a cup-with-handle or =
double-bottom base. It has three pullbacks from 10% to 20% with each low =
point during the sell-of in price being higher than the preceding, which =
is why I call it and ascending base. Each of the pullbacks usually ocurs =
due to the general market declining at that time."
Looking at your annotated chart, it would seem CECO fits this =
definition. It would also seem that the most recent pullback coincided =
with the July selloff in the markets in agreement with the definition.=20
Maybe CECO is one to watch. Any other views?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 3:52 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
HI Mike,
I've noticed the term "long term ascending base" coming up in =
many posts lately, so thought I'd make comment on that concept.
There's actually no such thing, as "ascending base" is a very =
particular kind of conolidation in the stock's move. In general, a stock =
will rise, then pause (base), rise, then pause, rise, then pause, and so =
on. As long as the rise between consolidations is at least 25%, the next =
area of consolidation is considered a new stage base. This is also the =
same reason that an LLUR is not a base....it's a stock on the rise, =
though with low volatility. (Sorry, Tom, just a point on which we don't =
agree.)
The base normally happens when the stock makes a new high, then =
falls and/or refuses to continue the up move for some period of time. A =
flat base for example, moves essentially sideways for at least 5 wks, =
the C&H or cup without handle lasts for at least 7 wks and sports a =
deeper correction as the stock retraces some of the previous move, etc. =
The ascending base is just an odd consolidation in that it drifts =
upward, attempting to breakout 3 times. It's a subtle pattern that's =
hard to read, but shouldn't be confused with a stock that is rising =
*between* consolidations.=20
I've uploaded an example on the CECO chart that shows the base, =
move up, base, move up, etc.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg
Please note that I marked the chart quickly, so the circled =
areas for the base are "general" and not exact for each base formation.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 7:54 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] XRAY and CECO
When I brought up XRAY last week, Winston observed that the =
longer term pattern was more like an ascending base. To my surprize, the =
XRAY breakout hasn't failed yet, although it hasn't been strong either, =
and may be in the process of forming another handle.
I came across another stock today with similar chart =
characteristics to XRAY - now in the handle of a Cwh formation with good =
CANSLIM characteristics =
(http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=3DCECO) =
except for v. high institutional ownership - but the longer term pattern =
looks like an ascending base.
The CwH pattern is not ideal with the cup too short and =
V-shaped, which I attribute to the market behavior in July, but perhaps =
its on its way to resuming the long term ascending base pattern.=20
Comments anyone?
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I guess it did break out today, but not with much=20
vol.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 2:44 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] CECO</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Scott,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>No. The rule of undercutting the base is from the prior base =
*before* the=20
stock began it's 25%+ rise. In this case, imagine the V you see more =
recently as=20
part of the flat base which began 4/23. In other words, the low you see =
on 7/22=20
never undercut the low of the previous base which ran approx. Sept-Dec =
'01.=20
Until the stock truly "fails" an area of consolidation (and in this case =
it has=20
not), you don't reset the base count.* Another way to look at is, while =
the V=20
you see in July is a little scary, imagine what might've happened if the =
market=20
had been healthier at the time. Would CECO have continued to build the =
rest of=20
the flat base? Maybe. Would it have staged a break out with some oomph =
behind it=20
on 6/25? Maybe. What will happen next? Don't know. Could firm up, finish =
the=20
consolidation which began in April and break out for good. OR....could =
fail from=20
here. Can't tell until Mr. Market sings and the price/volume tells the =
story.=20
That's why it's imperative to wait for a valid breakout before jumping =
in, it=20
reduces the risk.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'll stick by my original assessment that what you see right now is =
an=20
odd base that began 4/23.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>* The idea behind "failing" an area of consolidation is that the =
gains of=20
the prior 25% advance have now been erased. That's why you look at the =
low of=20
the previous base for base count.</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsgettis@ucla.edu href=3D"mailto:sgettis@ucla.edu">Scott =
Gettis</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 =
1:29=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] CECO</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>Katherine,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>Shouldn't the base count be reset on CECO =
since the=20
b/o from a flat base on 6/24 failed and the curent base undercuts the =
lows of=20
the flat base.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D049042718-13082002>--Scott</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, August 13, 2002 8:19 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY and =
CECO<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">HI =
Mike,</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">I can tell my =
response wasn't=20
clear. Let me try again with some examples and =
articles.</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">In general, it's =
important to=20
distinguish between a "healthy rising stock" and a "base." On one =
hand, you=20
will have a stock, like CECO, which has been rising over time. =
Each=20
time is rises for a while, then it pauses to consolidate. That pause =
is the=20
"base." Each time the stock reaches a new high and then =
consolidates, it=20
will demonstrate its ability to absorb the gains from the previous =
rise of=20
>=3D25%. That pattern that you see along the rising trend line is =
what you=20
want to see in a stock. The problem is, after the stock has done =
this 3 or 4=20
times, it becomes well-known and obvious, and so it is rare that it =
can=20
continue tracing out this same rising behavior for too much longer. =
What=20
will normally happen is that the stock will often fail in the next =
breakout=20
and/or correct so deeply that it undercuts the low of the previous =
base.=20
That "resets the base count" and you then start over with counting =
bases,=20
assuming of course, that the stock *can* recover. WON suggests that =
if the=20
correction is more than 80% that the stock is too badly damaged that =
it may=20
not recover in any reasonable time period. (IBM and WMT come to =
mind....look=20
back at a 10 year chart of each of them and notice what happened =
after they=20
corrected so deeply. They essentially went into years of sideways=20
movement.)</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Sometimes a picture =
is worth a=20
thousand words, so thought it easier to write up some notes. See =
notes on=20
the "Healthy Rising Stock" at:</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/HealthyRisingStock.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>HealthyRisingStock.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Now, far different =
than the=20
healthy rising stock is the *type* of base that it forms while=20
consolidating. There are many, though there are some that are more =
common,=20
more reliable, and far easier to spot than others. I'd rank the =
ascending=20
base as the most difficult to master. See my handwritten notes on =
types of=20
bases at:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/TypesOfBases.JPG">http://WallSt=
reet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>TypesOfBases.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Just to be complete, =
I've also=20
uploaded quite a few resources related to both rising stocks (base=20
counting) and ascending bases. I figured it was far easier to =
do that=20
than to reinvent the wheel and describe the ascending base in =
detail. See=20
them at:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Counting=20
bases:</SPAN></P></SPAN>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountingBasesHowTo.doc">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>CountingBasesHowTo.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG">http:/=
/WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>DeepCorrResetBCount.JPG</A></SPAN></P>=
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CountBasesB4Buy.JPG">http://Wal=
lStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>CountBasesB4Buy.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/MktWashoutNewBases.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>MktWashoutNewBases.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Ascending =
bases:</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/AscendingBaseRally.JPG">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>AscendingBaseRally.JPG</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/FindAscendingBases.doc">http://=
WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>FindAscendingBases.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BuyPointABase.doc">http://WallS=
treet-LLC.com/canslim/</SPAN>BuyPointABase.doc</A></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">In summary, there is =
no such=20
thing as a "long term ascending base" as the concept confuses a =
healthy=20
rising stock pattern over a longer time period with the =
ascending=20
base pattern, which is a particular kind of consolidation=20
(>=3D6wks). </SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">CECO has been =
exhibiting the=20
characteristics of a "healthy rising stock" and is currently forming =
a 3rd=20
stage base. CECO is *not* currently forming an ascending base. =
It is=20
forming a very strange base on base (flat + C&H) as far as I can =
tell. I=20
saw many odd patterns like this at the September '01 low and =
many of=20
the stocks were able to recover from the V shaped sell off, breakout =
and=20
move on. Many of the retailers, the gaming stocks, homebuilders, =
security=20
related stocks and Aero & Defense come to mind.</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'">Katherine</SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'"></SPAN> </P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS =
Mincho'"></SPAN> </P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmikegibbons@proactech.com=20
href=3D"mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com">Mike Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 12, =
2002 10:20=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Hi Katherine,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>I just opened my brand new copy of HTMMIS v 3 and found =
on P.=20
137-138 the topic "Ascending Base". The definition is somewhat =
similar to=20
what you describe:- "Ascending Bases, like flat bases, occur =
midway along=20
a move up after a stock has broken out of a cup-with-handle or=20
double-bottom base. It has three pullbacks from 10% to 20% with =
each low=20
point during the sell-of in price being higher than the preceding, =
which=20
is why I call it and ascending base. Each of the pullbacks usually =
ocurs=20
due to the general market declining at that =
time."</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Looking at your annotated chart, it would seem CECO fits =
this=20
definition. It would also seem that the most recent pullback =
coincided=20
with the July selloff in the markets in agreement with the =
definition.=20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Maybe CECO is one to watch. Any other =
views?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D760361003-13082002><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August 12, 2002 3:52 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>HI Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've noticed the term "long term ascending base" coming up =
in many=20
posts lately, so thought I'd make comment on that concept.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>There's actually no such thing, as "ascending base" is a =
very=20
particular kind of conolidation in the stock's move. In general, =
a stock=20
will rise, then pause (base), rise, then pause, rise, then =
pause, and so=20
on. As long as the rise between consolidations is at least 25%, =
the next=20
area of consolidation is considered a new stage base. This is =
also the=20
same reason that an LLUR is not a base....it's a stock on the =
rise,=20
though with low volatility. (Sorry, Tom, just a point on which =
we don't=20
agree.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The base normally happens when the stock makes a new high, =
then=20
falls and/or refuses to continue the up =
move for some=20
period of time. A flat base for example, moves essentially =
sideways for=20
at least 5 wks, the C&H or cup without handle lasts for at =
least 7=20
wks and sports a deeper correction as the stock retraces some of =
the=20
previous move, etc. The ascending base is just an odd =
consolidation in=20
that it drifts upward, attempting to breakout 3 times. It's a =
subtle=20
pattern that's hard to read, but shouldn't be confused with a =
stock that=20
is rising *between* consolidations. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've uploaded an example on the CECO chart that shows the =
base,=20
move up, base, move up, etc.</DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg">http://WallStre=
et-LLC.com/canslim/CECO081202.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Please note that I marked the chart quickly, so the circled =
areas=20
for the base are "general" and not exact for each base =
formation.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmike@proactech.com =
href=3D"mailto:mike@proactech.com">Mike=20
Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, August =
12, 2002=20
7:54 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] XRAY =
and=20
CECO</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>When I brought up XRAY last week, =
Winston=20
observed that the longer term pattern was more like an =
ascending base.=20
To my surprize, the XRAY breakout hasn't failed yet, although =
it=20
hasn't been strong either, and may be in the process of =
forming=20
another handle.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>I came across another stock today =
with=20
similar chart characteristics to XRAY - now in the handle of a =
Cwh=20
formation with good CANSLIM characteristics (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=3DCECO"=
>http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/fuzzy_canslim.php?symbol=3DCECO</A>)=20
except for v. high institutional ownership - but the =
longer term=20
pattern looks like an ascending base.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>The CwH pattern is not ideal with =
the cup too=20
short and V-shaped, which I attribute to the market behavior =
in July,=20
but perhaps its on its way to resuming the long term ascending =
base=20
pattern. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002>Comments =
anyone?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D700393200-13082002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
=
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BL=
OCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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